The Patriots and the Jets renew their rivalry this week with two of the best pass defenses squaring off

For a certain type of football fan, this NFL season is perfection.

Scoring is down across the league, and while analysts are still trying to piece together exactly why, the fact remains that defenses are having more success right now than in recent years. For fans of a certain age, or for my dear friends who coach on the defensive side of the football, this might feel like a return to a golden era of the sport.

If that sounds like you, then you might want to carve out some time Sunday to watch the New England Patriots take on the New York Jets. Defensive minds Bill Belichick and Robert Saleh will square off for the second time this season, and with a lot at stake.

At the outset, Sunday’s meeting between the two AFC East rivals is critical for both teams’ playoff chances. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Patriots currently have a 39% chance of making the playoffs. Those odds would jump to 53% with a win over the Jets, while a loss to New York would see their chances at the playoffs drop to 18%.

Conversely, the Jets enter Week 11 with a 59% chance of qualifying for the postseason. Beat the Patriots, and those odds skyrocket to 83%, and their odds of winning the division increase from 10%, to 18%.

In a sense, particularly for the Patriots, this meeting has the feel of a playoff game before Thanksgiving.

It might also have the feel of a throwback to the 1980s once it kicks off.

Here’s why.

Earlier this week, we took a deep dive into the New England pass defense. Through nine games, the Patriots have found a winning combination on the defensive side of the football, with their pass rush, and their coverage schemes, working in concert.

Up front, New England calls upon Matthew Judon — who currently leads the NFL in sacks — as part of their pressure package. But what they do up front goes beyond one single player.

According to charting data from Sports Info Solutions, the Patriots have 22 total sacks this season when rushing just four, second in the NFL. New England also has 99 pressures on the quarterback this year when rushing four, placing them fourth in the NFL in that category.

How have the Patriots put up these kinds of numbers? The players they have up front certainly helps. Belichick has at his disposal a group of players up front who can win in one-on-one situations, including Deatrich Wise, Josh Uche, and Judon.

But how they use those players is another piece to their defensive puzzle. New England likes to call on an under front in passing situations, which works to isolate Judon, giving him a one-on-one opportunity against a tackle.

This is just one example, from New England’s victory over the Indianapolis Colts:

This is New England’s under front, and it puts four pass-rushing threats on the left side of the line: Defensive tackle Davon Godchaux aligns over the center, with linebackers Anfernee Jennings and Uche outside of him to the left side of the offense. Then there is Raekwon McMillian, lurking just behind them.

With those four threats, Indianapolis has to slide the protection in their direction, leaving Judon, alone on the opposite side, in a one-on-one situation with the right tackle. Any chance of the guard helping on Judon is eliminated, when Godchaux comes off the ball and crashes into the A-Gap between the center and the right guard.

The result? Judon gets pressure off the edge, and flushes Sam Ehlinger out of the pocket. While Judon does not get home, Uche does.

This is but one example, but the Patriots have found a way to generate near-consistent pressure on the passer this season when rushing just four. New England has pressured the passer 35.6% of the time when rushing four this season, fifth-highest in the NFL.

But you need more than a good pass rush to succeed in the NFL, and Belichick knows that better than anyone:

It’s all tied in to the coverage. If you have the receivers covered, it gives the pass rush more opportunity. If you don’t have the receivers covered, then even a good rush isn’t going to result in a quarterback getting tackled, probably. The interceptions are a result of pass rush, just like sacks are a result of coverage.

I think it’s really team defense. The better team defense we’ve played, the more pressure we’ve had. I’d say when you look at a lot of our sacks, a lot of them are on three-man rushes, good coverage situations. Overall, you need good coverage to have a good pass rush, and a good pass rush to have good coverage. When those two have been in synch, we’ve been more productive. When they haven’t, we’ve given up some plays.

The New England secondary has been good, if not great, this season. New England’s defense has allowed an NFL Passer Rating of just 75.7 according to charting data from Sports Info Solutions, which is fourth-best in the NFL. They have allowed opposing passers an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of just 4.8 this year, fifth-best in the league. In terms of Expected Points Added, the Patriots’ have allowed an EPA/dropback of -0.153, which has them atop the league.

That leads us to what the Patriots are doing in the secondary, which offers that example of Belichick zigging while the league zags. Because as more and more teams lean into split-safety coverages — Quarters/Cover 4, Quarter-Quarter-Half, and Cover 2 — Belichick is going in the opposite direction.

This season, according to SIS charting data, New England has faced 187 passing attempts in single-high, behind only the Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins. How have they fared on those plays? The Patriots have allowed an NFL passer rating of just 71.2 on those 187 plays, second-best in the league. Opposing offenses have a Yards per Attempt of just 6.5 on those plays, against second-best in the league (New England is behind the Eagles in both categories).

On those 187 passing attempts, the Patriots have allowed an EPA/Play of -0.20, tying them with the Dallas Cowboys for the best mark in the NFL.

How does this all tie together? This play against the Green Bay Packers is a prime example:

We can start up front. The Packers, perhaps trying to avoid giving Judon a one-on-one, use a half-slide on this play, with the center, left guard, and left tackle sliding in that direction, while the right guard, and right tackle, slide towards Judon. That puts the right guard in a position to help on Judon, but he cannot, because New England uses a stunt on the inside between Wise and Christian Barmore. That forces the guard to peel back to the left and help out, giving Judon the one-on-one in the end.

As this unfolds, Allen Lazard looks open on his shallow, and Aaron Rodgers is looking at him, but when linebacker Mack Wilson drops off the line into the underneath rat alignment, he is in position to make a play if Rodgers attempts that throw.

Just as Rodgers comes off that route, Judon is working past the right tackle. The ultimate result? A throwaway under pressure from Rodgers, and a punt from the Packers.

Through a combination of pressure with four, and their single-high coverages in the secondary, the Patriots have put together one of the league’s best pass defenses.

But here’s the issue when it comes to this weekend.

The Jets might be better.

In discussing the New England pass defense, and in particular their pass rushing numbers with just four attacking the pocket, it is important to remember something.

Through nine games, the Jets have been better.

While the Patriots have 22 combined sacks when rushing four this season, the Jets have 24, which leads the league according to SIS.

While the Patriots have 99 pressures this year when rushing four, the Jets have 126, which is second in the NFL.

While New England has pressured the quarterback on 35.6% of their snaps when rushing four, placing them fifth in the NFL, New York has done so on 36.2% of their snaps, ranking them third.

When you zoom out a bit, and focus on the defense as a whole, you get even a clearer picture of how great the Jets have been on defense this year. While the Patriots have limited opposing passers to an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 4.8 this season, the fifth-best mark in the NFL, the Jets are even better, tied for third with an ANY/A allowed of 4.4.

And while the Patriots have held opposing passers to an NFL Passer Rating of 75.7, placing them fourth in the league, the Jets are again ahead of them, sitting second overall with an NFL Passer Rating allowed of 74.3.

How are the Jets finding success on the defensive side of the ball? In some ways, particularly up front, it mirrors what is happening in New England.

But in the secondary, the story is a bit different.

The Jets are not lacking for talent up front. With a healthy Carl Lawson in the fold after missing last season, New York has a dangerous — and deep — group of pass rusher off the edge. In addition to Lawson, Saleh can count on John Franklin-Myers, Bryce Huff, first-round selection Jermaine Johnson. and fourth-round pick Michael Clemons off the edges.

Like New England, the Jets will get combinations of pass rushers on the field in passing situations. On this third-down sack of Denver Broncos quarterback Brett Rypien, Huff, Franklin-Myers, and Lawson are all in the game, with Franklin-Myers kicked inside between the right guard and the right tackle:

Rypien is flushed initially by Huff, and then reinforcements arrive for the sack.

On this play against the Packers, that same trio is in the game, with Franklin-Myers again kicked inside, this time over the left tackle. Lawson and Huff generate some pressure off the edges, forcing Rodgers to climb.

That is when Franklin-Myers, running a stunt with the defensive tackle, gets home for the sack:

Now let’s talk about that unnamed defensive tackle.

Because while the Jets have talent, and depth, on the edges, a huge part of their ability to pressure with four is what defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is doing this season.

Through nine games, Williams has 31 quarterback pressures, third-most in the league among defensive tackles according to SIS. His seven total sacks ties him with Chris Jones and Javon Hargrave for the best number in the league among defensive tackles as well.

On this sack of Rodgers from Week 6, you can see Williams put his power to use on the interior:

How does this all tie together? Brandon Thorn, who covers the league for Establish the Run and knows trench play better than I ever will, wrote this about the Jets recently:

So, like New England, they can get pressure with four, allowing them to play with a numbers advantage in the secondary. And the Jets are a little bit better at getting that pressure with four than the Patriots are.

Now let’s turn to the secondary. As noted earlier this week — and earlier in this piece — the Patriots are leaning into single-high coverages, veering away from the league-wide trend of split-safety looks.

The Jets, however, are part of that two-high evolution. According to charting data from SIS, the Jets are among the league-leaders in using split-safety looks, defined by SIS as Cover2/Cover and Cover 6. New York has faced 123 passing attempts while using those coverages, ranking them fifth in the NFL.

When it comes to the single-high coverages — Cover 1 and Cover 3 — the Jets have seen 123 passing attempts while using those coverages, ranking them 26th in the NFL.

The interesting thing with the Jets, however, is how effective they have been in both single-high, and two-high structures. In single-high this season, the Jets have allowed an EPA/play of just 0.03, ranking them 14th in the league according to SIS. New York has allowed opposing passers an NFL Passer Rating of 86.7, ranking them 12th.

Those are good numbers. But when playing with two-high, New York is elite. In those coverages this season — Cover 2/Cover 4/Cover 6 — the Jets have allowed opposing passers an NFL Passer Rating of just 55.4, the best from any defense this season. They have also allowed an EPA/play of -0.36 this year in those split-safety looks, again putting them atop the NFL.

Of course, when they do lean into single-high coverages, they have rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner to rely upon, who is off to an incredible start to his NFL career.

Both the Patriots and the Jets are taking advantage of their ability to pressure with just four by using advantageous numbers in the secondary, but they are doing it in different ways. New England is leaning into single-high coverages, with help to defend the middle of the field, while the Jets are playing with two deep safeties, looking to eliminate big plays while forcing throws underneath.

Different paths to a similar results: Two of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

The two quarterbacks that have to contend with those defenses this weekend?

Well, that leads us to the third reason why this game might be fun for those who love defense.

The two quarterbacks tasked with trying to figure out theses defenses?

Second-year passers Mac Jones and Zach Wilson.

Having spent so much time talking about how both the Jets and the Patriots can get pressure with four, it seems appropriate to start there, and highlight how both quarterbacks have fared against pressure this season.

Not great!

According to Pro Football Focus charting data, when pressured this season Jones has completed 44.7% of his passes for 170 yards, 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions. His Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 51.5% ranks him 37th out of 39 qualified passers.

As for Wilson, the numbers are even worse. This season, Wilson has completed just 21.2% of his throws when pressured for 158 yards, 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions. His ACP under pressure this year is just 35.3%, ranking him last in the NFL among qualified passers.

Their struggles in the face of pressure were on full display when these teams met a few weeks ago. In New England’s 22-17 victory at the end of October, Jones completed 24 of 35 passes for 194 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Jones also had a Pick-Six erased before halftime due to a Roughing the Passer penalty on Franklin-Myers, a call that could have changed the course of the game.

Then there was Wilson, who completed just 20 of 41 passes for 355 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. All three of Wilson’s interceptions came when pressured, and Jones’ interception came with him under duress as well.

Here is just one of Wilson’s miscues, which you can see take place after facing pressure in the pocket:

Now here’s the interception from Jones that stood:

Again, the quarterback is under pressure off the edges, and the pass flutters out of Jones’ hands thanks to the effort from Huff, and is intercepted.

Sunday might be the perfect storm of defensive football. Two of the league’s best pass defenses, with the ability to pressure the quarterback, staring down two of the NFL’s young signal callers, who have struggled in the face of pressure this season.

With huge playoff implications in the balance.

Should be fun.

Particularly if you love defense.