What we got wrong about the 2022 NFL season

As writers who cover the NFL, we pride ourselves on diving deep into the teams, the players, and the schemes, and putting together analysis that is accurate, and adds value to the wider NFL discourse. We spend hours upon hours of watching film, crunching numbers, and more, to figure out exactly what is happening week-in, and week-out, to provide readers clear insight into the league.

Then summer ends, the season begins, and we realize just how much we got wrong.

The 2022 NFL season is perhaps the best example yet. After a spring, and summer, spent imagining just how this season would play out, the games got underway and most of those projections and predictions crumbled under the weight of the games themselves.

So, it is time to confront some hard truths.

Here is what we got absolutely, positively, and completely wrong about the 2022 NFL season.

I completely bought into the idea of “Restoring the Roar.”

All summer long, on every radio hit, podcast, or other appearance, I sold the idea that the Detroit Lions were going to make a push for the playoffs. It was almost a routine, like a stand-up comedian doing a bit. I would set the scene: Football fans gathering around the television around the holidays, watching the games with family and friends, and seeing the “Playoff Hunt” graphics plastered on the screen, whether on FOX or CBS.

And right there at the bottom, among the teams “In the Hunt,” would be the Lions.

Technically, that might still happen, but nowhere near the way I thought it would. I thought the Lions would be around .500, maybe a game or two above, and truly pushing for a playoff spot. Now? Now they might technically be in the mix — Detroit sits 12th in the conference at the moment and they were featured in the “Playoff Hunt” graphic on Thursday Night Football — but that has more to do with the overall weakness of the NFC, and not how well the Lions are playing.

And not at all how I envisioned it at the start of the season.

Now I’m left to wonder if the Lions will be able to pull that off next season, and if Dan Campbell will be around to see it.

I spent so much time this summer talking myself into the idea that the AFC West was far and away the best division in football.

The reasoning was simple. In a quarterback-driven league, the AFC West had four quarterbacks that, depending on the list, ranked among the Top 12-15 passers in the NFL. In that kind of environment, the division was sure to be a battle royale, and in my mind whatever team emerged atop the West would be ready to made a deep playoff run.

That last statement might be accurate, but solely because the Kansas City Chiefs look to be one of the more complete teams in the league, and it has nothing to do with being tested by the rest of the West.

The idea that reuniting Davante Adams with Derek Carr, under new head coach Josh McDaniels would lead to an efficient offense in Las Vegas? That crumbled almost overnight. Now McDaniels is getting the dreaded “vote of confidence” from ownership, Carr looks downtrodden after losses, and the Mike Mayock/Jon Gruden Era looks like one of the worst experiments in football history.

In similar fashion, Russell Wilson’s move to the Denver Broncos failed to provide the kinds of results I envisioned during the summer. I spent so much time over the past 12 months arguing that all the Broncos needed was consistency at the quarterback position, given their weapons on the offensive side of the football, and that Wilson would provide that.

That argument fell to pieces in Week 1.

Then there are the Los Angeles Chargers. Media darlings each and every offseason. They added Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson to their defense, and seemed prime to make a run.

Now they sit at 5-4, and with injuries continuing to mount, it is hard to see the Chargers making that run.

Well, the Green Bay Packers till have Aaron Rodgers under center.

And they lost the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night to fall to 4-7 on the season, and are in danger of falling to the bottom of the conference, depending on how the rest of the games shake out this weekend.

They are not fine right now, and that shows almost no signs of changing. Particularly when you look at their upcoming schedule, including games against the Eagles, Dolphins and Vikings.

I know, I know ... the Super Bowl hangover is real — but I absolutely worked myself into believing the Bengals wouldn’t fall into the trap. I tend to think the hangover is less about recovering from the game physically, and more about players getting their headspace back into competing mode after winning or losing the biggest game in the NFL.

My thought was the Bengals being so young, and so hungry would bounce back quickly and not really have an issue. With their boat load of cap space, solid draft picks, and a core that already proved to be enough to win the AFC — it was impossible for me to see a way this team wouldn’t make noise. Then in free agency the team signed Alex Kappa, La’el Collins, AND Ted Karras to bolster their offensive line, and I absolutely believed this team would run over most of the NFL.

How’d that work out?

NOT GREAT! It’s not like the Bengals are terrible, and they’ll still likely make the playoffs — but this is a middling team, not world beaters. There’s really two major factors that hurt Cincinnati in 2022:

The line has been so bad in protection this season that the Bengals have moved to an all-shotgun offense as a way to buy Burrow more time in the pocket — which really shouldn’t happen when you invest $74M in your pass protection. The move to the shotgun has shown good returns, and at least got the offense back on track, but it’s a BandAid on a bullet hole kind of move that really shouldn’t have been necessary in the first place. It also makes the Bengals passing attack more predictable and one-dimensional, which is something good pass defenses will prey on when the playoffs roll around.

When it comes to Taylor it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Yes, he made the good decision to move to that shotgun offense to save the season — but a lot of his in-game decision making has been questionable at best. Key decisions he made as head coach directly led to two of Cincinnati’s most damaging losses of the season, falling to the Steelers in the season opener, and then losing to the Ravens. I don’t think Taylor is a bad coach, but I do think the team he has is a lot better than he is as a coach, and sometimes that holds the Bengals back.

Father Time comes for us all, and his mighty scythe has taken out the Buccaneers this year. When I looked at this Bucs team in the offseason, I really couldn’t see any team from their division stopping them. Every other team in the NFC South is either going through a major rebuild or is the New Orleans Saints, and the Bucs could sleepwalk to the best record in the sport. The only thing stopping them were injuries.

Well, the Bucs have dealt with injuries across the board, at critical positions. Their offensive line has been through multiple combinations due to injury, the wide receivers have barely all been healthy together and the defense is currently still fighting injury. This has led to a lot of games where the offense just looks disjointed and without a well executed plan.

They sit at 5-5 currently, but it’s hard to see them finishing with the best record in football given how injury prone that team is. The lesson here is to never doubt the war of attrition and Father Time.

Fine, Tuanon. I’ve admitted defeat.

Originally I expected the Dolphins offense to be “lol go deep Tyreek and Jaylen,” with Tua being unable to hit throws deep. However, Mike McDaniel and Hill have helped to elevate Tua’s play to almost an MVP level. What’s been interesting though is how McDaniel has tailored the offense to Tua’s strengths, rather than focus on his weaknesses.

Tua doesn’t have the strongest of arms and doesn’t operate as well against man coverage. Well, this year both of those things haven’t been a problem. Where he excels is in the RPO and quick game, using his quick processing to fire the ball out on time to his playmakers. With Hill and Waddle, it limits the amount of man coverage you can play due to their speed, and Tua has been picking apart intermediate areas of the field and moving second level defenders to make throws. The margin for error now is extremely wide due to Hill, and Tua is taking advantage of that, which is good for the Dolphins offense.

What this means on a grander scale is franchises need to help their young QB if they want him to succeed. How they do that is by surrounding him with playmakers and playcalling, which will increase the margin of error for the young QB and you can really tell if you have a long term solution at the position. The Dolphins are finding out they possibly have a long term answer with Tua.

What’s the ceiling now?

Initially I looked at the Bengals schedule before the season and saw them cruising to a 14-3 record, then battling it out with the Chiefs and Bills for AFC supremacy. Now I think the best they can finish is probably 10-7. This team wasted a lot of its gimme wins and hit a tough back half with the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Titans left to play.

The AFC North is a weak division, and there’s a good chance they could still win the North — but if this team lands on the bubble the math gets a lot more tricky. A 10-7 record should be enough to make it in, but I don’t have any confidence in this team to reliably beat the second-tier AFC teams like the Ravens, Charges or Titans — let alone the Chiefs, Bills, or the red hot Dolphins.

My feeling is that this season ends in disappointment, and there’s some soul searching to do before 2023.