Is Baker back?

Perhaps the most shocking result of the entire Week 16 slate came on Christmas Day. That’s when the Los Angeles Rams, led by recently-signed quarterback Baker Mayfield, throttled the Denver Broncos by a final score of 51-14. That included a moment where Patrick Star, part of the broadcast on Nickelodeon, roasted a Russell Wilson interception.

Another shocking development from that game? The play from Mayfield himself. The quarterback turned in perhaps his best game of the entire season, completing 24 of 28 passes for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns, without throwing an interception. This came against a Broncos defense that heading into Week 16 was one of the best pass defenses in the league, allowing -0.099 Expected Points per Play per Dropback, fourth-best in the NFL. Denver has also allowed an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of just 4.7 this year to opposing quarterbacks, second-best in the league.

Since joining the Rams, Mayfield has completed 58 of 84 passes for 571 yards (69% completion percentage) and 4 touchdowns, against just a single interception. During his time with the Carolina Panthers this year, Mayfield hit on 57.8% of his throws for 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

Is Baker back?

Rams fans, or Mayfield believers, who want to lean into that notion do have some evidence to pull from Sunday’s blowout victory over the Broncos. Mayfield looked as calm and comfortable in the pocket as he has in a long time, and it showed on plays like this completion on a dig route to tight end Brycen Hopkins. Watch as Mayfield targets Hopkins in the secondary window, working around safety Kareem Jackson:

Jackson drops down into an underneath robber technique, reading Mayfield’s eyes. When the QB first looks at the dig route, Jackson breaks to his right, anticipating a throw in that direction. That’s when Mayfield fits the throw around Jackson, connecting with his tight end for a big gain.

Another throw to a tight end stands out from this win, a short touchdown to Tyler Higbee from early in the second quarter:

The Rams face a 3rd and goal at the 7 yard line, already out to a 17-3 lead. Denver goes with a zero blitz on this snap, and linebacker Alex Singleton has a free run at the QB. Mayfield first peeks the switch concept on the right side of the field, before getting his eyes to Higbee’s glance route on the left. The QB knows the big hit is coming, but he hangs in the pocket and makes a perfect throw for the touchdown.

But while Mayfield deserves credit for how well he has adapted to life with the Rams, his coach, Sean McVay, has done some adapting of his own. According to Sports Info Solutions, heading into Week 16 the Rams led the league in the use of 11 personnel, a package with three wide receivers and a tight end on the field, with 794 offensive snaps in that package.

That changed Sunday against the Broncos. Los Angeles leaned into 12 personnel, putting two tight ends on the field, for the first time all season. The Rams ran 49 snaps Sunday in that package, and it created some big plays in the passing game.

One example was this boot-action design from midway through the first quarter. Both Higbee and Hopkins are in the game, in a YY wing alignment on the right. Mayfield comes out of a run fake and rolls to his right, hitting Hopkins on the deep corner route:

12 personnel was also on the field late in the third quarter, when Mayfield and Hopkins connected on this out route to the left side of the field:

What stands out about this throw? The placement from Mayfield. The Broncos are in Cover 4 here, and with the outside receiver going vertical — which pulls the cornerback with him — Jackson, the safety, has to cover the out route from the tight end. Jackson does a good job at breaking on the route, and he beats Hopkins to the outside. If Mayfield leads the tight end, Jackson has a good chance at an interception. But Mayfield’s throw throttles Hopkins down, and the tight end is able to shield Jackson away from the ball with body.

He then breaks the tackle attempt for good measure.

So, what does one make of Mayfield right now? Is his success against the Broncos more a factor of Denver folding the tents at the end of a disappointing season? Is McVay finding a way to cater his offense to what Mayfield does well in the passing game?

Or is Baker actually back?

Since joining the Rams, Mayfield has regained some of the confidence and swagger that made him a Heisman Trophy winner, and the first-overall selection in the 2018 draft. He looks comfortable and confident again in the pocket, and good plays are following on the field.

But McVay also deserves credit for adapting his offense in short order to his new quarterback. This is, after all, the job of a coach. Adapt what you do to the talent you have on the roster.

McVay has been criticized in the past for being slow to adapt to either his roster, or what defenses are doing to his schemes. In three short weeks, however, he has tweaked his offense to match the quarterback under center. Many of the concepts are the same, but the personnel package is a departure from McVay’s offenses of the past. The offense mirrors what McVay was running with Jared Goff at the helm, with an emphasis on play-action and boot-action designs to create opportunities for the QB

But the emphasis on 12 personnel also helps Mayfield, as it creates more favorable matchups with tight ends working against linebacker and safeties. On both of the above examples, the Broncos were in bigger defensive personnel groups, with three down linemen and four linebackers on the field. One of the tenets of McVay’s offense during the Rams’ run to Super Bowl LIII was running out of 11 personnel, working against sub defensive packages, and creating lighter boxes to work against in the run game.

Sunday? The Rams found ways to throw out of 12 personnel, against heavier personnel groupings.

So to answer the question. Is Baker back?

We’re not ready to say that.

Yet.

But it does seem like if a career revival is going to happen for him, he might have landed in the best place possible.