Updated playoff scenarios for the final day of the NFL season

We have reached the final Sunday of the NFL season.

12 teams have clinched playoff spots, with three teams vying for the seventh seed in both the AFC and the NFC. On the AFC side of things, the New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are all in the mix for the final playoff spot. On the NFC side, the Green Bay Packers, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Detroit Lions are each alive for that final spot.

Both the Patriots and the Packers control their destiny. Win, and they are in.

Here are the clinching scenarios for this final day of the NFL season.

We will start on the NFC side, with how the seedings could materialize on the final day of play.

The Philadelphia Eagles remain atop the NFC standings, but losses in back-to-back weeks have them yet to clinch either the NFC East, or the top seed in the conference.

They can clinch the top seed in the NFC with a win or a tie against the New York Giants, or a loss or tie from the Dallas Cowboys against the Washington Commanders and a loss or tie from the San Francisco 49ers against the Arizona Cardinals.

They can also end up as the second seed in the NFC. If the Eagles lose to the Giants, the Cowboys lose or tie with the Commanders, and the 49ers win, then the Eagles are the second seed.

Philadelphia could also end up as the fifth seed in the conference. If the Eagles lose and the Cowboys win, Dallas would win the NFC East, bumping the Eagles down to the fifth-spot in the conference.

The 49ers are currently slotted into the second seed in the NFC. They can climb into the top seed with a win over the Cardinals, and a loss from the Eagles.

San Francisco stays in the second spot in a few different scenarios: A win and an Eagles’ win or tie is the first path. A tie against Arizona, and a Minnesota Vikings’ loss or tie with the Chicago Bears is the second path. Finally, losses by both the 49ers and Vikings keeps the 49ers in the second spot.

The 49ers can also slide down to third with the following results: A loss to Arizona and a Vikings win or tie against the Bears, or a tie with Arizona and a Vikings win.

The Cowboys, like the Eagles, can finish in the top spot, or slide down to fifth. Dallas can secure homefield advantage in the NFC with a win over the Commanders, an Eagles’ loss to the Giants, and a 49ers’ tie or loss with Arizona.

Dallas can also be the second seed. If the Cowboys beat the Commanders, and the Eagles lose to the Giants, then a 49ers win would see San Francisco in the top spot, and Dallas in the second spot. Philadelphia slides to fifth in this scenario.

Dallas slides back to fifth with either an Eagles’ win or tie, or a Cowboys’ loss or tie.

The Vikings can finish in either the second spot, or the third spot. To finish second, the Vikings need a win against Chicago coupled with a 49ers’ loss or tie, or the Vikings need to tie Chicago, coupled with a 49ers’ loss.

Finishing third is the most likely scenario for the Vikings, which happens with: A Vikings’ loss, or a Vikings’ tie and a 49ers’ tie, or a 49ers’ win.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are locked into the fourth spot in the playoffs, and will host a game on Wild Card Weekend.

The New York Giants are locked into the sixth spot in the playoffs. This could be a reason Brian Daboll is starting Davis Webb on Sunday against the Eagles.

Now we get to the scenarios for the seventh spot, where three teams are in contention.

The Green Bay Packers have the easiest spot. Win on Sunday night against the Detroit Lions, and they are the seventh seed.

The Seattle Seahawks have what we could consider the next easiest path. A win on Sunday afternoon against the Los Angeles Rams, coupled with a Packers’ loss or tie on Sunday night, and the Seahawks are in. They can also get in with a tie, coupled with a tie between the Packers and the Lions, and a Commanders tie or win over the Cowboys.

Then there are the Detroit Lions. The Lions are in with a win over the Packers, coupled with a Seahawks’ loss or tie on Sunday afternoon. Detroit also gets in with a tie, coupled with a Seattle loss. Finally, if the Lions and Packers tie, and the Seahawks tie with Los Angeles, then a Cowboys’ loss to Washington gets the Lions in.

We now turn to the AFC side of things, where the uncertainty created by the cancellation of the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills became a bit clearer on Saturday.

The Chiefs secured the top seed in the AFC with Saturday’s win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Whether a potential AFC Championship Game would indeed remain in Kansas City is still unclear, given the proposal approved by the NFL regarding modifying the AFC playoffs. If the AFC Championship Game features the Chiefs and the Bills, that game will be at a neutral site.

The best the Bills can finish now is second. They can do that with a win or tie against the New England Patriots, or a loss coupled with a Bengals’ loss or tie to the Baltimore Ravens.

If the Bills lose to New England, and Cincinnati beats the Bills, then Buffalo is the third seed.

The Bengals can still finish as the second seed with a win, coupled by a Bills’ loss. Cincinnati can also finish third in the AFC. If the Bengals lose or tie with Baltimore, then the Bengals are third. If the Bills win or tie against New England, then the Bengals are third.

With their win Saturday night over the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars clinched the AFC South and are locked into the fourth spot.

The Ravens can finish either fifth or sixth in the AFC. Baltimore is the fifth seed with: A win and a Los Angeles’ Chargers loss or tie with the Denver Broncos, or a tie with the Bengals, and a Chargers’ loss to Denver.

Baltimore is the sixth seed with: A loss to Cincinnati, or a tie with Cincinnati and a Chargers’ tie with Denver, or a Chargers’ win.

The Ravens can still host a playoff game, under the modification of the AFC playoffs approved by the league. If the Ravens win on Sunday, and the Chargers win, then the Bengals are in the third spot, and the Ravens are in the sixth spot. Since they would then meet on Wild Card Weekend, the league has decided that in this scenario — where the Ravens beat the Bengals twice in the regular season — then homefield for that game should be determined by a coin flip.

Like the Ravens, the Chargers can be either the fifth or the sixth seed.

The Chargers earn the fifth seed with a win, or a tie against the Broncos and a Ravens’ tie with the Bengals, or a Ravens’ loss.

The Chargers are the sixth seed with a loss and a Ravens’ win or tie, or a tie and a Ravens’ win.

Three teams are left vying for the seventh seed. Four teams were in contention for this spot entering Week 18, but with their win Saturday night, the Jaguars are the AFC South champions. There was a scenario where Jacksonville would get in as the seventh seed had they lost to Tennessee.

The New England Patriots have the easiest path. Win against Buffalo, and the Patriots are the seventh seed. They can back in with a loss, provided the Miami Dolphins lose to the New York Jets, and the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Cleveland Browns. If the Patriots tie Buffalo, then a Dolphins’ loss or tie, and a Steelers’ loss or tie, gets New England in.

For the Miami Dolphins, they first need to beat the Jets. With a win, and a Patriots’ loss or tie, the Dolphins are in. If the Dolphins tie the Jets, then a loss from New England and a Steelers’ loss or tie gets Miami in.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in with: A win over Cleveland coupled with losses or ties from both the Patriots and the Dolphins. Pittsburgh can also get in with a tie, provided the Patriots and the Dolphins both lose outright.