Handicapping the battle for second between Mercedes and Ferrari

As the Formula 1 grid heads to Las Vegas for the first-ever Las Vegas Grand Prix, matters at the top of both the Constructors’ and the Drivers’ standings are settled. Max Verstappen rolls into Sin City having already clinched his third-straight Drivers’ title, and Red Bull has already locked up their second-straight Constructors’ Championship.

But that does not mean some intriguing battles will not be playing out in Las Vegas next week. There are fascinating fights throughout the field, such as the three-way battle between Williams, Alfa Romeo, and AlphaTauri for seventh place in the Constructors’ Championship. There is also still the matter of fourth place in the Constructors’, with McLaren and Aston Martin engaged in that fight.

Then there is the battle for second, with long-time rivals Mercedes and Ferrari separated by just 20 points as the grid heads to Sin City. Mercedes currently holds that advantage, but with two races remaining, anything can happen.

But here is why, at least when it comes to Las Vegas, you might prefer to be in Ferrari’s shoes in this battle.

Straight-line speed.

That might seem a rather straight-forward statement, given that we are talking about motorsports, but the circuit in Las Vegas might be catered to the teams that have demonstrated impressive speed on the straights this season:

The layout offers just 17 turns, but offers drivers three long straights, including the section coming out of Turn 12, into Turn 13 and down the Vegas Strip into the quick chicane made up of Turns 14, 15, and 16.

That long straight will take drivers past some of the most iconic sights of the Vegas landscape, including The Mirage, Caesar’s Palace, The Bellagio (and its iconic fountains), Paris Las Vegas, and the Cosmopolitan.

As a result, this is going to be a fast track.

“It is gonna be fast,” McLaren CEO Zak Brown told me when I spoke with him last month.

“That’s a fact, right? We’ve seen the circuit,” Brown continued. “I think it’s either the longest or the second longest straight in Formula One. So it is gonna be fast. That is a fact.”

Given where these two teams are right now, it would seem you would rather be in Ferrari’s shoes.

Take data from the most recent race, the São Paulo Grand Prix. While Charles Leclerc experienced a failure on the formation lap, leaving Ferrari with just Carlos Sainz Jr. in the race, he finished ahead of both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell.

As you can see from this data provided by F1-Tempo, which compares the best laps from Sainz (Lap 59, on a set of soft tires) and Hamilton (also Lap 59, on a set of soft tires) the Ferrari was dominant on the straights:

Sainz posted a lap time of 1:14.406 on Lap 59, compared with a time of 1:14.739 for Hamilton.

Then there is the Mexico City Grand Prix, where Hamilton finished second, with Leclerc behind him in third. Take what both drivers did on Lap 14, when they were both on a set of mediums that they had started the Grand Prix with. Hamilton posted the better lap of the two — 1:23.839 from him compared to 1:24.320 for Leclerc — but again, note what happened on the straights:

Again, Ferrari was stronger on the long straight, running from the start/finish line all the way to Turn 1. While Hamilton was a bit quicker coming out of that initial chicane, Ferrari’s straight-line speed showed up at the end of that second straight.

Let’s look at one final example, the United States Grand Prix. As with Brazil, Hamilton finished second, with Leclerc right behind him in third. However, both drivers were disqualified following a post-race inspection, which showed excessive wear on the planks below both cars.

Leclerc’s fastest lap came on Lap 38, on a set of hard tires. He posted a time of 1:41.025. Hamilton’s best lap, Lap 42, came on a set of mediums.

But when comparing these two laps — with Hamilton on a softer compound — you still see Ferrari’s strength on the straights:

For perhaps a better comparison, let’s look at both drivers on Lap 31. Both Leclerc and Hamilton were on a set of hard tires, and Leclerc’s were a few laps newer: Hamilton made a switch to hard tires for Lap 22, while Leclerc switched to this set of hards on Lap 25.

Hamilton posted the fastest time on this lap — 1:41.310 compared with 1:41.715 for Leclerc — but again, look at the straights:

Ferrari’s strength when compared to Mercedes these past few races should put them in a very good position during the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix.

Of course, a lot of other factors will come into play. This is a new track for all the drivers, so how quickly they get acclimated to the layout will play a huge role. Also, as we talked about earlier this week, the expected cold weather in Las Vegas may play a role, as drivers might need more time to get the tires in the right window.

But given this data it would seem, at least at the moment, that Ferrari has the advantage going into Las Vegas.

We’ll see if that holds soon enough.