The ceiling and floor pro comparisons for the top QBs of the 2023 NFL Draft

When it comes to the NFL Draft you’ll often hear terms like “high ceiling,” or “high floor” — and these are really pretty self-explanatory. It’s about the room for players to grow when they reach the NFL, and where they’re at right now. Truth be told, there are so many variables that go into a draft pick that the best prospect can falter if they land in the wrong spot, or the most mediocre prospect can become an All-Pro if they get taken by a team who know how to use them.

We see this every single year. Tyreek Hill in the 5th round, Cooper Kupp in the 3rd — and of course we’ll never, ever forget Tom Brady being picked in the 6th. Finding mid-to-late round gems is a total crapshoot, but what about the guys at the top of the draft everyone is focused on? Who do these players compare to in their best and worst case scenarios? More importantly, what can that tell us about the teams picking at the top and how that might impact their decision making?

Today we’re looking at the Top 5 quarterbacks of the 2023 NFL Draft to look at who these guys might be at the next level in their best, and worst case scenarios.

Ceiling: Joe Burrow, with more athleticism in the pocket
Floor: Jared Goff without Sean McVay’s assistants

This is the reason Stroud is seen as the safest top QB in the draft — and the presumed pick of the Carolina Panthers at No. 1. The odds that Stroud will completely flame out are very low, and he still has room to grow.

At best the team selecting Stroud will have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He possesses the quick processing needed to succeed inside the pocket, and keeps his eyes downfield while trying to find a target — similar to Burrow. The difference is that right now Stroud doesn’t handle pressure as well as Burrow. The plus side is that he has the athleticism to avoid the rush without that becoming a crutch he uses to run to the outside and miss out on bigger opportunities through the air.

When we look at the floor it’s still pretty high. Jared Goff is really able to excel inside a system, but it’s unclear what kind of player he’d be without Sean McVay’s development team around him. As such he’s on the higher end of mid-tier quarterbacks, but definitely hasn’t lived up to being a No. 1 overall pick.

Ceiling: Drew Brees
Floor: A more fragile Jeff Garcia

Bryce Young is a really difficult prospect to judge. If you were to transpose his football ability into a larger frame, not only would he be the No. 1 QB in this class without comparison — but one of the most heralded QB prospects of all time. In fact, it’s a testament to just how good Young is that he’s still being considered as the top QB in the draft, despite of how small he is.

We’re talking about a mammoth ceiling. It warrants notice when you’re compared to a future NFL Hall of Famer and one of the greatest passers of all time. Young’s ability to process information in the pocket and almost-always make the right decision is an extremely rare trait. In term of football IQ it’s almost impossible to compare Young right now, because he’s light years ahead of where any prospective rookie should be. Plug him into any offense, ask him to do anything, and he’ll find a way to do it.

The risk, as we all know, is size. It’s not so much the 5’10 height — but the 204 pound weight, which could have been engineered water weight at the combine. We’re talking about a very real chance that Young’s playing weight is in the low 190s, and that’s scary. The first time he’s driven into the dirt by a 300 pound defensive tackle everyone is going to be holding their breath. Jeff Garcia had a lot more of a tendency to scramble than Young does, but he was a smart, risk-averse passer who could win games early in his career. The injury bug bit Garcia because of his slight frame, and he didn’t return to his early potential.

Ceiling: Plus-level Cam Newton
Floor: Vince Young

Nobody, and I mean nobody has the potential of Anthony Richardson. It’s almost impossible to adequately discuss his ceiling because we’re talking about such a unicorn athlete that there’s almost no comparison to be made.

Cam Newton was a former No. 1 overall pick who was seen as a risk at the position. Richardson is a different player in a lot of ways — because one of Newton’s main selling points was his competitiveness and ability to put an entire team on his back. Right now Richardson is a little better mechanically as a passer than Newton was, and exchanges Cam’s more bruising, running-back-esque style in the open field for that of a taller, similarly explosive Michael Vick. If a team can develop Richardson and put the support system around him we really could see a player unlike anything the league has ever seen.

The downside is pretty pronounced too. Vince Young never showed the desire needed to become the best version of himself in the NFL, and landed in a spot that didn’t know how to develop him. Young struggled as a passer and made terrible decisions that often cost his team more than it helped.

Ceiling: Josh Allen without the wheels
Floor: Kyle Boller

Nothing about the Will Levis hype really makes a lot of sense outside of blind hope. He’s played in NFL systems in college, and has a build that turns heads — but pushing all the chips in is very risky.

The absolute best-case scenario is Josh Allen, who will forever be the paragon of pre-draft prognostication whiffing. Nothing about Allen coming out of Wyoming showed he was a top quarterback outside of his Howitzer arm, but the Bills believed in his potential. This was a unicorn scenario that we’ve seen go bad dozens of times before, but with Allen it worked. Levis does not have Allen’s running ability, but has the size and strength to punch it in around the goal line.

On the other side of the coin we have Kyle Boller, who never deserved to be drafted in the Top 20 outside of his cannon arm and build. There was absolutely nothing that showed Boller would succeed in the NFL, and he didn’t. Inconsistent, bad decision making, mediocre ability in the pocket — Boller was a true whiff for the Ravens, and that could easily be Will Levis at the next level.

Ceiling: Alex Smith
Floor: Case Keenum

There’s been a lot of late hype about Hendon Hooker that isn’t really warranted. There are some skills you like to see from a quarterback to be sure, but Hooker also played in a Tennessee offense that can’t be translated to the NFL at all. A team taking him will need to look at the positives, while having blinders on for the myriad pitfalls that could exist in him becoming a starting QB in the NFL.

If everything comes together you’re looking at someone like Alex Smith. Sure, Smith was taken No. 1 overall, but he’ll forever be remembered as “not Aaron Rodgers,” who slid in the draft. Smith carved out a perfectly serviceable NFL career, but was a mid-level starter at best. Hooker and Smith has similar arm talent and natural athleticism, but there is a huge gap in understanding NFL concepts that could get in the way.

Case Keenum is a legendary backup quarterback in the NFL. He’s smart, he’s shown some brief flashes as a starter — and that’s it. The big issue is that despite being a legendary college stat machine, Keenum’s offense at Houston also didn’t translate to the NFL. This prevented him from ever becoming a consistent starting QB.