College basketball’s most endearing and most damning quality is its constant redefinition. Teams other than, say, Northwestern bounce between the top and bottom of their leagues from year to year, or at least have the ability to do so, because of attrition. Recruiting never stops, and player development never stops, and as such, players emerge every year that hadn’t been so great the year before.
10 candidates for college basketball’s breakout players
Plenty of players have waited for their time to shine in college hoops.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
It’s a popular, easy opinion that all of college basketball’s best players come straight from high school and then leave, and of course, it’s not true. A lot of what captivates college hoops comes from within its own ranks, having being almost hidden in plain sight waiting for the right set of circumstances to blow up. Below are 10 players who may do just that this year.
Rodney Purvis, Connecticut
The defending national champions lost Shabazz Napier to graduation, but Purvis is poised to slide into the Husky backcourt alongside senior Ryan Boatright. Purvis, who sat out last year due to NCAA transfer rules, played one year at N.C. State and started 23 games. But as the season wore on, he lost playing time and his production dipped. He later said he never fit into coach Mark Gottfried’s offense, but he expects to thrive at UConn, a school known for producing NBA-level guards.
Purvis and Boatright combine to give UConn one of the most dangerous scoring backcourts in the country. When Purvis was on at N.C. State, he could pour on 20-plus points per game and shoot the three. Boatright is the same way and his tools will be fully unleashed as he plays his senior season without being overshadowed by Napier.
UConn coach Kevin Ollie, who knows a thing or two about playing guard in Storrs, spent last season raving about Purvis, referring to him as “the Ferrari in the garage that I can’t drive.“
When Ollie finally gets the keys in November, he’ll have a tremendous offensive threat, but one he will have to keep happy and motivated, even through tough times. -- Russell Steinberg
Terry Rozier, Louisville
Preseason predictions are an exercise often fraught in poor and laughable choices, because the predictors are often tempted to make huge leaps with risky choices. Terry Rozier, the sophomore point guard in charge of the Louisville Cardinals, is not one of those choices. He's as safe a bet to break out in the upcoming season as any.
Rozier showed signs of what was to come as a seldom-used freshman on the Cardinals' Sweet 16 team last season. Seldom-used made sense; he was a 6'1 freshman, and Russ Smith was starring in his final college season. Smith needed the ball, and the steady hand alongside him in the backcourt was JUCO transfer Chris Jones.
Jones is still around, this year a senior, but as last year developed, so did he as less of a true point guard and more of an off-the-ball player. With Smith and Luke Hancock gone, Jones will likely become the Cardinals' primary perimeter scorer. Jones and Montrezl Harrell have returned, and Rozier will be in charge of guiding them through a tough schedule as first-year members of the ACC.
Rozier led Louisville and was 56th in Division I last season with a 9.7 turnover rate, committing a turnover on less than one in 10 personal possessions. -- James Pennington
Rysheed Jordan, St. John's
Fans in Queens have been waiting a long time for the Red Storm to break out. If 2014-15 is the year that happens, Jordan might be the key reason why. The point guard enjoyed a strong freshman year last season, coming to St. John's as a five-star recruit and averaging close to double figures in scoring to go with three assists per game. Like Purvis, Jordan will see most of his minutes alongside a star guard -- D'Angelo Harrison led the Red Storm in scoring last year and played 33 minutes per contest. He'll also play with Phil Greene IV, one of the team's best three-point shooters.
Though he can certainly score when necessary, Jordan will be asked primarily to add to his team-leading assist total from last year and let Harrison handle most of the scoring on the guard-heavy team. He might have to improve at the foul line, where he only shot 66 percent last year, and can cut down on his turnovers, but neither area represents a glaring weakness. Coach Steve Lavin praised Jordan late last year, noting his improvement from the beginning of the season to the end. After a summer of working on his game, Jordan can make a run at All-Big East honors. -- RS
Dakari Johnson, Kentucky
Early on as a freshman for the Kentucky Wildcats last season, Dakari Johnson didn't play much. He was out of shape, as many 7-footers can be at such a young age, and Willie Cauley-Stein was very much in shape. Johnson would enter games, and for a few possessions at a time, he would make plays in the post no big man under John Calipari had made since DeMarcus Cousins. But then he'd give up on a rebound, get beaten down the floor and Cauley-Stein's breather was over.
But then Johnson started to get in shape, and he quickly began proving that he’d become one of college basketball’s best big men as soon as his body caught up with his skill set. Johnson only played 34.1 percent of the available team minutes last season, so he was a bit shy of qualifying for national statistic leaderboards at KenPom. But his offensive rebounding percentage was 16.9 -- meaning he rebounded 16.9 percent of Kentucky’s missed shots while he was on the floor -- and had he played 40 percent of team minutes instead of 34.1, he would have been fifth in Division I in that category and second among major-conference players to Baylor’s Rico Gathers.
Johnson’s contributions and potential left such an impression after his freshman year that he had to announce he would stay in school instead of enter the NBA Draft. He’s already a world-class quote. Assuming fitness, he’ll have plenty to talk about. -- JP
Winston Shepard, San Diego State
One could argue that Shepard already had his breakout year -- he doubled his scoring output from his freshman to sophomore seasons, ranked second on the team in rebounding and started 34 games. But with Josh Davis having graduated, there's room for Shepard to take an even bigger step onto the national stage. Shepard was inconsistent last year and struggled in the NCAA Tournament as the Aztecs advanced to the Sweet 16, but he earned the praise of coach Steve Fisher, who noted his improvement on the court and the impact he's had on his teammates.
Shepard presents a matchup nightmare for opposing coaches and will make NBA scouts salivate as long as his production doesn’t dip in 2014-15. He has the size and physicality to play in the frontcourt, which he will do most of the time, but is also a good enough ball handler to play either guard position. So while he’s banging inside, fighting for second-chance points, he also has the ability to drag his defender away from the basket, then force the defense to scramble as he blows by his man. That also allows him to get to the foul line, where he recorded the second-most attempts on the team last year. -- RS
Sam Thompson, Ohio State
Do not become alarmed when you watch the Ohio State Buckeyes for the first time this season and find an uncharacteristic lack of grit on the court; Aaron Craft, longtime Buckeye point guard and Just How The Game Should Be Played exemplar, has graduated, and so must Thad Matta and Ohio State move on. Of course, Craft has never really been the Buckeyes' best player, but don't let that fool you.
As significant as Craft's graduation was LaQuinton Ross' early defection to the NBA Draft (he wasn't selected and has signed with a team in Italy after an NBA Summer League tryout). Lenzelle Smith is gone, too, making senior swingman Sam Thompson an easy choice to step into bigger shoes.
That’s not to say Thompson’s contributions have been insignificant to date; he’s started since he was a sophomore and done just fine. He’s been a GIF machine in a tertiary role. See? Look:
Via Eleven Warriors
Thompson hasn’t always taken that athleticism and applied it to his defensive possessions, which kept him from starting several games as a junior. Thompson has steadily improved as an offensive player, developing more and more of a jump shot that can legitimately threaten Big Ten defenses, or at least draw them in so he can do crazy things at the rim.
Either way, the Buckeyes’ offense last year was unmistakably bland -- somewhere on the bland scale between mayonnaise and extra virgin mayonnaise -- so simply giving Thompson more canvas to work with could be all he needs to come into focus nationally. -- JP
Markus Kennedy, SMU
Kennedy, a 6’9 transfer from Villanova, made an immediate impact for SMU last season and by the end of the year was one of the best big men in the American. He earned second-team all-conference honors for a team the narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament.
In order to get Larry Brown’s team to March Madness, Kennedy will need to be just as good in 2014-15. He was the only reliable man on the boards last season, churning out six double-doubles, including a 21-and-15 clinic in the Mustangs’ win over Memphis on Feb. 1. Kennedy has transformed physically in college just as much as he has on the court. He came to Villanova at 260 pounds but is now down to 220, still with enough size and strength to bully the best bigs in the nation. He’s not all physicality, either. Kennedy possesses great footwork for his size and is in better condition than most at his position.
Kennedy and first-team all-AAC guard Nic Moore might enter the season as the best duo in the conference, giving SMU firepower both inside and on the wing. If Kennedy can build off his strong 2013-14 season, there's no reason to think SMU can't win the conference and make serious noise in March. -- RS
Ron Baker, Wichita State
Wichita State's Ron Baker could have broken into the national spotlight as a solid freshman on a surprise Final Four team, but Cleanthony Early emerged instead. Baker then could have been the one to do so as a sophomore on a team that went undefeated in the regular season, but Fred Van Vleet rightfully got his due. At a place like Wichita State, it's hard to share attention. Early is gone, and everybody knows about Van Vleet now. Perhaps in 2014-15, Baker will start to get the attention his play has warranted.
Baker has the size and skill set of a straightforward shooting guard prospect. He’s 6’4, and he can shoot from all over the court. What separates Baker is his athleticism for his spot on the floor. It’s easy to be overshadowed when one of your four teammates was Cleanthony Early, who once did this in a real-life basketball game:
Baker did this in the final minute of the same game to pull his team within one point, though Wichita State would still lose in perhaps the most exciting game of the tournament:
Via @_MarcusD_
Van Vleet will be as good as he was, and probably better, in front of the offense. And with Early now backing up Carmelo Anthony in New York, it’s Baker’s turn to break out. -- JP
Conner Frankamp, Kansas
We’ll go out on a limb on this one and say Frankamp enjoyed his breakout game in the NCAA Tournament and that will catapult him into a strong 2014-15 season.
Until the 2014 tournament started, in fact, Frankamp was pretty much a non-factor. The four-star guard was ranked in the top 50 in the class of 2013, according to ESPN, but struggled to find consistent minutes on a loaded Kansas team. That changed in the second round when he played 25 minutes and scored 10 points against Eastern Kentucky. Two days later, he had the best performance of his young career, nailing four threes to keep Kansas alive against Stanford. That included two makes from long range in the final 25 seconds, though they weren’t enough as the Cardinal pulled off the upset, 60-57.
This year, Kansas will be guard-heavy and Frankamp will have to fight for time, with Wayne Selden expected to lead the backcourt. But with Nadir Tharpe and Andrew Wiggins both gone, Frankamp will have the chance to show he was worth the hype and the glimmer of greatness he showed last March was more than an aberration. -- RS
Bobby Portis, Arkansas
Assuming you’re one of everybody on Earth who knows almost nothing about SEC basketball, Arkansas sophomore Bobby Portis is among the first players to whom you should be introduced. If you ask DraftExpress, Portis is the No. 3 NBA prospect among sophomores this season -- ahead of No. 4 Dakari Johnson.
The 6’10 power forward isn’t an other-worldly athlete, nor is he a significant perimeter threat. He can make plays with his athleticism, yes, and he can step out occasionally. But he makes his game intelligently, using the body he has and the skills already in place to punish opponents. He’s aggressive on the post, and it quickly became evident he could handle the load as the primary offensive piece in a fast-paced setting (Arkansas had the fifth-most possessions in college basketball last year and had the 12th-fastest offensive possessions).
Much of the Razorbacks’ core from last season’s NIT team has returned, and Portis should stand to benefit from an improved group around him. -- JP
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