Last season's Florida Gators were a special team. Billy Donovan's squad ran through the SEC undefeated, beating Kentucky three times on their way to the conference championship in both the regular season and post-season tournament. Following a Dec. 2 loss to UConn on a Shabazz Napier buzzer-beater, the Gators ripped off 30 straight wins, not losing again until April 5 when the Huskies repeated the feat, this time in the Final Four.
Florida basketball preview: Billy Donovan must replace 4 senior starters
The Gators will have a bunch of fresh faces this season around lone returning starter Michael Frazier II.
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Ricky O'Donnell has covered basketball at all levels for more than a decade at SB Nation. He’s currently the Associate Director of Programming.
For a program that had lost in the Elite Eight the past three seasons, making it out of the regional must have been a cathartic experience even if it ultimately ended in disappointment. It might have been Donovan’s most impressive coaching job yet, to take a team with no real NBA prospects and guide them to such a dominant season while facing the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, per KenPom.
Those Gators were led by four senior starters, which means this year was always set up to be a challenge. Donovan isn’t trying to rebuild. Strong recruiting classes the last several years have the Gators poised to be a contender once again, this group longer and more athletic than its predecessor even if it isn’t nearly as battle-tested. Florida set the bar so impossibly high last season that nothing other than a national title will be able to top it, but the talent is in place to keep the Gators rolling well into the future.
Michael Frazier II is Donovan's only returning starter, and he should be the Gators' leading scorer this year. There might not be a better three-point shooter in the country. Frazier took nearly seven threes per game for the Gators and knocked down over 44 percent of them, hitting 11 (in 18 attempts) during one game against South Carolina. He finished No. 18 in the country in effective field-goal percentage and No. 22 in true shooting percentage. His biggest area of improvement could come as a playmaker, after he averaged only 1.1 assists per game last season.
Even if Frazier is the most established returning player, Florida will be far from a one-man show. Expect a balanced offense dependent on all five players on the floor being able to hold their own, not dissimilar from last season. Point guard Kasey Hill and big man Chris Walker both enter their sophomore seasons with sky-high expectations after coming to Florida as McDonald's All-Americans. Dorian Finney-Smith is the glue guy, a two-way force who does just about everything but shoot from the outside. Transfers Jon Horford (Michigan), Alex Murphy (Duke) and Eli Carter (Rutgers) add experience and depth.
The SEC has Kentucky and not much else, at least that’s how it looks at the start of the season. Even with so many new starters and one big question mark (more on him in a second), there’s enough talent here to win a lot of games. It’s what Donovan does. Florida has won 20 games or more the last 16 years, and that’s a trend that shouldn’t stop this season. Donovan has built Gator basketball into a sustainable juggernaut. It’s hard to ask for much more than that.
Projected starting lineup
PG Kasey Hill, sophomore
SG Michael Frazier II, junior
SF Dorian Finney-Smith, junior
PF Jon Horford, senior
C Chris Walker, sophomore
Key reserves: G Eli Carter (junior), F Devin Robinson (freshman), F Alex Murphy (junior), G Brandone Francis (freshman), F Jacob Kurtz (senior), PG Chris Chiozza (freshman)
How the Gators can go deep in March once again: Sophomore jumps and D’ing up
The obvious wildcard for Florida is Walker, who will begin the season with a three-game suspension for what appears to be a drug violation. Walker actually defeated Andrew Wiggins in the dunk contest at the McDonald's Game in case you're wondering how incredible his athleticism is, and packing into a 6'11 frame is just unfair. The man has all the potential in the world, but he hasn't done anything at the college level yet and isn't doing himself any favors to start his second season in Gainesville.
The development of sophomores Walker and Hill will be essential for Florida. Walker could be one of the best front court players in the country if he puts it together. Hill inherits Scottie Wilbekin’s spot and faces high expectations, as well. He didn’t shoot the ball well as a freshman (40 percent from the field, 14 percent from three) but he’s a natural playmaker who should thrive setting up a host of other offensive options.
The freshmen are interesting, too. Donovan brings in three top-45 recruits, per ESPN, the most intriguing of which is Devin Robinson. Robinson grew 5 inches during his junior year to become a 6’8 wing who was always nurtured as a guard. He’s a versatile scorer and will be counted on as an instant-offense option off the bench. He is very skinny at only 180 pounds and his defense is likely to determine just how much he sees the floor.
Defense is Donovan’s specialty, and it’s how this team can become a force once again. Florida finished No. 4 in defensive efficiency in 2013 and No. 2 last season, per KenPom, but loses a ton of great individual defenders. Finney-Smith will be the team’s top wing defender, and Walker has the potential to be an incredible shot blocker. This likely won’t be one of the five defenses in the country again, but it should be able to hold its own at that end of the floor if everyone plays up to their potential.
How Florida’s season could end early: Walker falls off, lack of shooting
You hate to overstate the importance of a 19-year-old, but Florida really needs Walker to deliver on his potential this year. If he gets in trouble off the court again, the Gators will be a little too dependent on transfers Horford and Murphy in the front court instead of using them to supplement the team’s more talented players.
The other issue here is a dearth of outside shooting other than Frazier. Maybe Robinson helps there, or perhaps Finney-Smith improves his accuracy enough to stretch defenses out a bit. Hill will need some room to drive and create, and the best way to do that is by putting more than one three-point threat on the floor.
With four senior starters departing, it’s impossible to know what to expect from Florida. Donovan has established himself as one of the best coaches in the country, and part of that is his ability to recruit every year. There’s plenty of talent here, Donovan just simply needs these players to prove themselves.
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