Preseason bracketology: Kentucky leads the way yet again

Kentucky, boasting a roster that's again loaded with McDonald's All-Americans, are joined as a No. 1 seed by the Arizona Wildcats, expected to dominate the Pac-12 even after Aaron Gordon's departure for the NBA; the Wisconsin Badgers, a team anchored by veterans eager to show the upstart freshmen that dominate the rest of the top line how it's done; and the Duke Blue Devils, another squad full of blue chip recruits, including Jahlil Okafor, the 6-11 center who might very well be the top pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. The Blue Devils' eternal rivals, the North Carolina Tar Heels, and the Kansas Jayhawks, perennial Big 12 favorites, also earned serious consideration for the final place on the top line.

Like Kentucky, the Blue Devils are a repeat selection as a preseason No. 1 seed. And like the Wildcats, Mike Krzyzewski's team failed to reach those lofty heights, falling in the Round of 64 as a No. 3 seed to the Mercer Bears. My other two top seed misses from last season--Michigan State and Louisville--are also present in this bracket, just a bit further down.

As I seemingly type in a similar place every November, you can automatically assume that at least a third of the teams listed in this projection will not be here on Selection Sunday. Naturally, the fun is in learning those unfortunate teams identities! Last season, 28 teams present in my preseason projection were missing in March, though 17 of these teams filled automatic bids, which are always dicey picks at best, given the unpredictability of Championship Week. For example, 2014 preseason conference picks Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Louisiana Tech, Stony Brook, and Toledo all came tantalizingly close to booking bids via their respective league championship games. All five of these teams are back in this projection, which only illustrates that I'm terrible at learning lessons.

Since 17 of my 28 misses were auto bids, I completely missed 11 of the 36 at-large teams before the season tipped off. As you would expect most of these (I'm looking at you Georgetown, Marquette, Missouri, and St. John's) were the result of disappointing seasons, not sheer incompetence on my part, as has been the case in previous years--remember when I put Northwestern and Oregon State in my 2010 preseason bracket? Good times!

Note that three of my first eight out from last season--Arizona State, BYU, and Providence--eventually found their way in. That counts for something, right?

My preseason seeding, on the other hand, was generally as off the mark as you would expect, considering the absence of games played. Even though I failed to pick any of the top seeds correctly in November--and really, who knew Wichita State would be that good? -- I did manage to perfectly slot Kansas (a two seed) Syracuse (a three) into their Top 16 positions. Indeed, I managed to project eight of the 16 teams on the top four lines in November, with my order just being a little off in most cases. Overall, I placed 22 teams within two lines of their correct seed before a game had even been played, which isn't all that awful when you really think about it.