At this point, at least North Carolina is well-acquainted with the prospect of dealing with distractions away from the court. A year ago at this time, the biggest story around the program was the status of star wing P.J. Hairston and his involvement with rental cars from an ex-felon. Hairston's eligibility hung over Chapel Hill until December when he was mercifully dismissed. Roy Williams called it the 'saddest thing' he's ever gone through as a head coach, but the way his team rallied in the second half of the year must have made him proud.
North Carolina basketball preview: The Tar Heels are big and athletic, but can they shoot?
North Carolina is the No. 6 team in our college basketball countdown.
Tom Pennington
Ricky O'Donnell has covered basketball at all levels for more than a decade at SB Nation. He’s currently the Associate Director of Programming.
North Carolina didn't always look like a tournament team last season, but a 12-game ACC winning streak after an uneven start proved the Tar Heels were something more than just a loose collection of high-touted recruits. Marcus Paige established himself as one of country's brightest stars, young big men Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks started to come into their own, and by the end of the season, UNC was finally playing up to its ability. The season would end at the hands of a loaded Iowa State team in the round of 32, but an incoming wave of freshman talent and minimal offseason turnover should have the Heels primed for a big year.
Of course, there are still concerns. Off the court, a long-running academic scandal finally reached its crescendo last month when an independent investigation into the athletic department revealed years of academic impropriety. On the court, North Carolina is going to have to find away to stop being one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country. If someone other than Paige can consistently make three-pointers, that would help, too.
Even with obvious question marks to start the season, North Carolina is a consensus top-10 team because they’re big, athletic and have arguably the best returning player in the country. Paige is the engine that will make the Tar Heels go this season, as a primary scorer, facilitator and leader. After a breakout sophomore year, Paige will be on everyone’s All-America list.
Paige couldn’t finish around the rim as a freshman, shooting only 35 percent from the floor. That changed last season as he became more comfortable hitting mid-range shots and spotting up from three. He ended the year averaging 17.5 points, 4.2 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game on 44 percent shooting from the floor and 39 percent shooting from deep. If UNC is going to make a tournament run this year, it’ll need Paige to dominate offensively.
If Paige is the rock for the Tar Heels, three young big men have a chance to push the team into new territory. Brice Johnson came on as a sophomore and should benefit with James Michael MacAdoo off the team. He'll remind you of former UNC star John Henson a bit -- he's a long and athletic shot-blocker who uses his bounce to finish around the basket. If Johnson takes another step forward, he could become a first-round NBA draft pick. The implications are big for both himself and the program.
Kennedy Meeks is back for his sophomore season too, and he's in better shape than ever. Meeks' offseason weight loss drew headlines this summer. After finishing with 15 points and 12 rebounds against Iowa State in the tournament, expectations will be high. Same goes for Isaiah Hicks, an athletic sophomore forward who struggled with the physicality of the ACC last season. As a former top-20 recruit, Hicks will be counted on to improve as much as any player on this roster. If it happens, UNC will have one of the most intimidating front lines in the country.
Add in the arrival of three McDonald’s All-Americans and UNC should have enough talent to bounce back from two consecutive seasons that ended in the round of 32. The academic scandal will be a topic of discussion all season, but the players on the roster have bigger problems to worry about. If they can tune everything out and focus on righting obvious deficiencies, this could be one of the best teams in the country.
Projected starting lineup
PG Marcus Paige, junior
SG JP Tokoto, junior
SF Justin Jackson, freshman
PF Brice Johnson, junior
C Kennedy Meeks, sophomore
Key reserves: G Nate Britt (sophomore), F Isaiah Hicks (sophomore), C Joel James (junior), G Joel Berry (freshman), G Theo Pinson (freshman)
SB Nation community: Tar Heel Blog
How North Carolina can go deep in March: Defense and pace
North Carolina’s biggest strength is going to be noticeable the minute they take the floor: this team is simply going to be bigger and more athletic than almost anyone they play. That physical advantage should manifest itself on defense.
A year ago, North Carolina placed No. 21 in Ken Pom’s defensive efficiency rankings. With JP Tokoto entrenched on the wing and the size and shot blocking of Meeks, Johnson and Hicks in the front court, this year’s defense could be even better. Tokoto will be a prime candidate for SportsCenter highlights all season -- he led the team in steals last year and became a killer in transition. Tokoto is going to need to defend to stave off the freshman for playing time, because his shooting remains a huge question mark.
Tokoto's ability to push the ball on the fast break next to Paige and sophomore guard Nate Britt is another asset for North Carolina. The Tar Heels placed No. 19 in adjusted tempo last season and finished the year with the 10th shortest average offensive possession, per Ken Pom. If they can keep turning defense into offense like they started doing at the end of last season, the Tar Heels should be able to overwhelm opponents with inferior talent.
There will be a big spotlight on the freshman class -- all three of whom were named as McDonald’s All-Americans. Justin Jackson might remind you a bit of former Gonzaga wing Austin Daye. He’s tall and skinny and likes to pull up for jump shots. If his range gets extended to the three-point line, he could be a huge addition.
Joel Berry will be Paige’s replacement whenever his career is over, and Williams knows the program will be in good hands. Berry was named the high school Player of the Year in Florida three times during his prep career, only the sixth player in the country ever to do that. Berry also comes in with a reputation as a great student -- that and Paige’s excellence in the classroom will hopefully dissuade some from cracking jokes about the scandal.
The last freshman is Theo Pinson, who you might remember from THE SELFIE DUNK. There’s really nothing else you need to know here.
How the Tar Heels could be headed home early: Lack of shooting next to Paige
Marcus Paige made 86 three-pointers last year. Every other returning player combined to make 12. You can see how this might be a problem.
For a team with such a talented front court, UNC will need to shoot well to keep defenses from collapsing down into the paint whenever Johnson or Meeks gets a post touch. The freshman should help here, it’s just too early to project what type of percentages they might post. If either Britt or Tokoto improves, it would be a huge boost next to Paige.
While the three-point shooting is a concern, North Carolina’s free throw shooting is just embarrassing. Paige hit nearly 88 percent of his freebies last year, but everyone else was brutal. As a team, North Carolina only made 62.6 percent of their free throws -- by far the worst mark in the country for any power conference team.
Losing MacAdoo will help fix the foul shooting immensely. Last year, he led the team with 257 free throws (111 more than second-place Paige) and only made 53 percent of them. If Tokoto and Meeks can improve at all here, the Tar Heels will start picking up some of the many free points they left on the table last season.
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