Duke basketball preview: Jahlil Okafor is the center of attention for the Blue Devils

Much of America finds itself in the business of rooting against Duke every spring, and business has been booming the last few seasons. The Blue Devils have failed to win a game in the NCAA Tournament two of the last three years, ousted by C.J. McCollum and No. 15 Leigh in 2012 and then No. 14 Mercer last season. If the rest of the country wasn’t dancing right alongside Mercer, it was at least taking deep satisfaction in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s team failing in March once again.

Duke looked supremely talented on paper last season led by No. 2 overall draft pick Jabari Parker and another first rounder in Rodney Hood, but the star power could only mask very real deficiencies for so long. While Duke posted the No. 2 offense in the nation according to KenPom, it was No. 116 in defense. Playing Parker at power forward and the 6’9, 210-pound Amile Jefferson at center was always going to be a problem for Duke in the tournament, Mercer just exposed the flaw sooner than most expected.

It would be impossible for 99 percent of programs to lose talents like Parker and Hood and come back even better the next season, but that’s the position Duke has put itself in this year. For Duke, a little size changes everything.

There hasn’t been a big man as polished as Jahlil Okafor to enter college basketball in a long time. At 6’11, 270 pounds, Okafor is a giant with nimble footwork and several go-to post moves already developed. He won’t be the most explosive or laterally quick player on the floor, but his mass alone will help Duke defend the paint better than it did last season. His massive 7’6 wingspan shouldn’t hurt, either.

Coach K has already said he’s resigned to the fact that Okafor will follow in Parker’s footsteps and jump to the NBA after his freshman year. He’s the preseason favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2015 draft and it’s hard to envision him dropping out of the top three. This is hardly a one-man show, though. Duke’s recruiting class features four McDonald’s All-Americans, including the point guard Okafor hand-picked to play with, Minnesota native Tyus Jones. That talented group of newcomers will join a returning cast that should be hungry to make last season’s tournament failure a distance memory.

Coach K has downsized his Blue Devils and spread the floor with shooting since he’s become the head coach of USA Basketball. It’s a strategy that has made Duke one of the most proficient three-point shooting teams in the country, but it isn’t nearly as effective without a solid starting center. Mason was good enough to key a run to the Elite 8 in 2013, but last year’s team didn’t have the size. Can Duke keep shooting the lights out even after some key departures?

The ACC is as tough as ever, with North Carolina, Virginia and Louisville joining Duke as consensus top 10 teams. Conference play is going to be brutal, and Duke didn’t take it easy in the nonconference slate, either. Games at Wisconsin and UConn and against Michigan State are going to be serious challenges. At this point, Coach K knows the regular season doesn’t really matter when it comes to wins and losses. His teams are solely judged by how they fare in March.

With Okafor and the other freshman joining an experienced team, the makings for a deep run in the tournament are there. Whether you like them or not, Duke is going to be a factor. This probably isn’t the team to bet against.

PG Tyus Jones, freshman

SG Matt Jones, sophomore

SF Justise Winslow, freshman

PF Amile Jefferson, junior

C Jahlil Okafor, freshman

Key reserves: G Quinn Cook (senior), G Rasheed Sulaimon (junior), C Marshall Plumlee (junior), G Grayson Allen (freshman), F Semi Ojeleye (sophomore)

SB Nation community: Duke Basketball Report

Last year, Duke scored over 35 percent of its points via the three ball. That ranked No. 25 in the country. The Blue Devils had four players hit only 40 percent of their shots from deep, while Cook and Parker were potent from behind the line, too. The question is: can Duke still shoot like that?

With Parker, Hood, Tyler Thornton and Andre Dawkins gone, Duke is losing exactly 200 made threes from last season. For a team that shot 39.5 percent overall from the three-point line, that much turnover is going to be an issue. It puts the pressure on Tyus Jones and Matt Jones to hit shots in addition to what Coach K expects Cook and Sulaimon to bring to the table.

Tyus Jones was the No. 4 rated player by ESPN and enters college basketball as a “pure” point guard. While such distinctions won’t really matter once we see him take the floor, the expectation is that Jones will look to set up teammates more than score himself. He was a packaged deal with Okafor and is expected to leapfrog the senior Cook and junior Sulaimon (who Duke used as point guard at the end of last season) in the starting lineup.

Justise Winslow is every bit as intriguing. The 6’6, 220 pound small forward enters the program with a reputation as a shutdown wing defender. That’s something Duke sorely missed last season. If his offense catches up to his defense, Winslow could be a one-and-done player as well.

Sulaimon vs. Matt Jones is the most interesting positional battle heading into the season. Matt Jones was seen as a bench player during the summer after not getting much burn as a freshman last season, but Coach K has used him with the starters in exhibition games. Coach K believes Jones could be his best perimeter defender, and he should be a good enough shooter to keep Duke’s offense flowing.

Sulaimon, a former McDonald’s All-American, enters his junior year as a powerful guard who can bomb from deep. He hit 41 percent of the 105 three-pointers he took last season. Sulaimon is more experienced than Jones and is no slouch defensively himself.

Jefferson should be aided by moving to the four. He only had 20 blocks all of last season as Duke’s starting center, and that lack of rim protection is eventually what did them in. As a power forward, he’ll be able to use his athleticism to become a terror on the glass and won’t have to worry about being the most important player on the defense.

Okafor is massive, but at this point he’s known for his offense, not his defense. NBA scouts are going to poke holes in his game at that end of the floor, so perhaps it will motivate him to defend. Still: being the focal point on both offense and defense is no easy task for any player, let alone a freshman, no matter how talented he is.

Having Winslow as a wing stopper will help, and Sulaimon and Matt Jones should be another capable defensive duo on the perimeter. Jefferson could improve as a power forward, though Duke doesn’t appear to have many ready-made options at the four if he doesn’t. Tyus Jones projects as a pesky point guard who might stockpile steals, and his lack of size won’t really hurt him until he gets to the NBA level.

The defense will be better, if only because it’s tough to imagine it being much worse. The offense will be more post-heavy than it’s been a long time, but if the perimeter players keep making shots, it might be as potent ever.

Duke’s ability to land the best of the best recruits and rely more heavily on the three-point shot has made them a fun team to watch, even if the name on the front of the jersey still serves as a repellent for so many around the country. Whatever. With Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow and a group of long-range shooters, this team will be anything but boring.