With conference tournaments underway, the bubble is starting to take shape. I chatted with Fox Sports 1’s college basketball writer Reid Forgrave to see what he thought about the implications of Tournament Week:
2014 NCAA Tournament, Bubble Watch: Q&A with FS1’s Reid Forgrave
Who should make it out of the Big East? Are there any deserving teams besides Florida and Kentucky in the SEC?
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How many teams should get in from the SEC? Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia are a combined 7-19 against the RPI Top 50.
Four -- barely. Kentucky is still an obvious selection despite their awful past month. They are a no-doubter. But Tennessee and Arkansas are directly on that bubble. I think -- *think* -- Tennessee should get in, no matter what happens in the SEC Tournament. Other than A&M and Vandy, not any bad losses on that resume. The Vols are hugely talented, one of the most talented bubble teams, so wouldn't be surprised if they made a Sweet 16 run from a lower seed. Feel similar about Arkansas' chances at Tennessee's, maybe a little less confident. That Alabama loss didn't help their case. You can't lose to South Carolina in the SEC tournament. Beat SC and you're probably a little nervous on Selection Sunday, but still in a pretty good spot.
Nebraska is solidly on the bubble. How far do the Cornhuskers need to go in the Big Ten Tournament to guarantee a spot? Is this the year Nebraska finally wins an NCAA Tournament game?
I say Nebraska’s win over Wisconsin guarantees them a tourney bid, no matter what happens in the Big Ten tournament. To get 11 wins in that conference? Awesome. I don’t care if almost every single win was at home. When we’re talking about Nebraska in the tourney, I think it’s simply a matter of “happy to be there, doesn’t matter what happens.” For Tim Miles to get them into the tournament is an absolutely huge accomplishment, a year (or two) ahead of schedule. It reminds me of my hometown Pittsburgh Pirates getting into the playoffs for the first time in a generation this past season. Sure, I wanted them to win. But I didn’t really care. Just being there was enough.
Who is the best team in the A-10? Six teams have a good chance of making the Big Dance.
I love Saint Louis, despite their recent stumbles. Great coach. More importantly, it’s the single most experienced team of all the teams in the likely NCAA tournament field. (Look it up on KenPom.com.) They start 5 seniors. They play that great pack-line defense that’s done wonders for teams like Virginia. They’re not at all flashy, almost boring, but so, so, so solid.
In the Big East, Providence, Xavier and St. John’s are all bubble teams. Who has the best resume and who has the best shot at making the field of 68?
Probably Xavier, despite that Seton Hall loss. All three of those teams have the talent to make the Big Dance, but it's just such a parity-filled conference this season. Not tons of elite teams, but there aren't many dogs, either. St. John's has the most talent in the Big East. They've been rolling since late January. That's the type of team that could make a run in the Big East tournament to secure a bid -- and then could make a run in the NCAA tourney if they make it.
Does Cal have to win the Pac-12 Tournament to get in? Can Stanford fall off the bubble with a first-round loss?
The bubble is a shifting landscape. If Stanford loses to Wazzu, yes, I think that bumps them off the bubble...but you never know how things shake out nationally. For Cal, you need to at least get to the Pac-12 title game to be considered.
You can read everything by Reid over here, and catch all of the Big East and Pac-12 Tournaments on Fox Sports 1.
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