NCAA Tournament bracket predictions: UCLA, Michigan State, Arizona and Louisville to the Final Four

My issue this year is the same issue that has plagued me over the years. I can never strike a balance between choosing upsets and choosing too conservatively.

One year, I’ll pick every irrational upset on the board, because duh it’s March and anything can happen and I’ll pick one right and brag about it to everyone on Twitter. The problem with that approach is that, let’s be honest, most upset picks are luck and if you pick a bunch of them then you’re going to be wrong most of the time.

Which brings me to my conservative side. This more reserved bracket selecting side of me says I should side with reason. In those years, one huge knockout in the Round of 64 will absolutely destroy the rest of my bracket (thanks C.J. McCollum!). I’m playing pretty conservative this year and my lack of overall upsets is probably going to destroy me. All it takes is for Delaware to dislodge Michigan State and weeeeee there goes my entire bracket.

So let’s go Tom Izzo and Sean Miller! Coach them boys up and let’s ride this bad boy all the way to the top!

UCLA:

The Bruins have shooters at all five positions on the floor and they present a particularly weird set of challenges when Kyle Anderson runs a point-hybrid position and is surrounded by two shooting guards (Jordan Adams and Norman Powell) and the Wear twins. I like Kansas here, too, but I’m not convinced they are a Final Four team if Embiid isn’t 100 percent. Florida is the popular choice, but I’m worried about its poor free throw shooting.

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Arizona:

Brandon Ashley’s foot injury is a problem, but the Wildcats have had plenty of time to adapt and move on since. As with Florida, I’m worried about Arizona’s free-throw shooting, but the Wildcats are huge, they defend the hell out of the ball, they have bench depth and they have the most stable crew of guards in the country. Their route to the Final Four, aside from a potentially tricky Oklahoma State game, is probably the easiest for any of the No. 1 seeds.

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Michigan State:

This has become the easy pick out of the East, which worries me because that just completely sets me up to fail. The Gary Harris-Adreian Payne duo is one of the best in the country and Tom Izzo always seems to get the most out of his team around this time. I know that’s a cliche narrative to rely on, but I’m going to ride it out.

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Louisville:

The Cardinals got robbed of a higher seed, but their route really isn’t that difficult. Neither NC State or St. Louis strike much fear in Round 3 and they are more athletic than Wichita State and have already seen Kentucky this season, should they have to play either of those teams in the Sweet 16. After that, it’s a problematic meet up with either Duke or Michigan, but I’m taking Russ Smith in March nine times out of 10.

Pick: Arizona