Bracketology: Syracuse tumbles again, Baylor moves toward safety
After dropping their fourth game in their last five, the Orange are now residents of the three-seed line in Chris Dobbertean’s Wednesday projection. At the other end of the bid picture, Baylor, Georgetown, Oregon and Providence all picked up crucial wins on Tuesday night, with three of those teams improving their position in the field of 68 as a result.
NCAA power rankings
A wild weekend in college basketball has put this week's power rankings in flux with conference tournaments around the corner. As a result of Syracuse’s tumble, Virginia jumps up to the two line, though it’s a very close call between the Cavaliers and newly-crowned Big Ten regular season champion Michigan; one that will undoubtedly sort itself out over the next week and a half. That inexplicable loss to Charlotte in Puerto Rico really hurts the Wolverines’ case, even with their eight Top 50 wins.
Otherwise, yesterday’s Top 16 remain in place for yet another day with Florida (South), Arizona (West), Wichita State (Midwest) and Kansas (East) leading the way. I’ll have more bracket notes after the full projection and rundown.
| (1) SOUTH Memphis (Thu/Sat) | (2) WEST Anaheim (Thu/Sat) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando (Thu/Sat) | San Diego (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 1 | Florida (SEC) | 1 | Arizona (Pac-12) |
| 16 | Alabama State/Weber State | 16 | Robert Morris (NEC) |
| 8 | SMU | 8 88 | George Washington |
| 9 | Kansas State | ↑ 9 | Oklahoma State |
| San Diego (Fri/Sun) | San Antonio (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 55 5 | Texas | 5 5 | North Carolina |
| 12 | Green Bay (Horizon) | 12↓12 | Toledo (MAC) |
| 4 | Cincinnati (AAC) | 4 | Iowa State |
| 13 | Louisiana Tech (C-USA) | 13 | Iona (MAAC) |
| Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) | Buffalo (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 6 | Connecticut | 666 | Kentucky |
| ↓ 11 | Gonzaga (WCC) | ^11 | BYU/Minnesota |
| 3 | Michigan (Big Ten) | ↓ 3 | Syracuse |
| 14 | Delaware (CAA) | 14 | Boston U. (Patriot) |
| Raleigh (Fri/Sun) | Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 7 | Ohio State | 7 | VCU |
| ↑ 10 | Oregon | 10 | California |
| 2 | Virginia (ACC) | 2 | Wisconsin |
| ↑ 15 | Vermont (AmEast) | 15 | UC Irvine (Big West) |
| (4) EAST New York (Fri/Sun) | (3) MIDWEST Indianapolis (Fri/Sun) | ||
| St. Louis (Fri/Sun) | St. Louis (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 1 | Kansas (Big 12) | 1 | Wichita State (MVC) |
| 16 | Davidson (SoCon) | 16 | High Point/Utah Valley |
| 8 | Stanford | ↓ 8 | New Mexico (MW) |
| 9 | St. Joseph's | ↑ 9 | Baylor |
| Orlando (Thu/Sat) | Spokane (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 5 | Saint Louis (A 10) | 5 | Oklahoma |
| 12 | Harvard (Ivy) | ^↓12 | Pittsburgh |
| 4 | Louisville | 4 | Michigan State |
| 13 | Belmont (OVC) | 13 | North Dakota State (Summit) |
| Spokane (Thu/Sat) | San Antonio (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 6 | UMass | 6 | UCLA |
| ↓ 11 | Xavier | 11 | Arkansas/Providence |
| 3 | San Diego State | 3 | Creighton |
| 14 | Stephen F. Austin (Southland) | 14 | Georgia State (Sun Belt) |
| Buffalo (Thu/Sat) | Raleigh (Fri/Sun) | ||
| ↑ 7 | Iowa | 7 | Memphis |
| ↓ 10 | Arizona State | 10 | Colorado |
| 2 | Villanova (Big East) | 2 | Duke |
| 15 | N.C. Central (MEAC) | 15 | Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun) |
| FIRST FOUR (Dayton) | |||
| Tuesday: To Orlando | Tuesday: To Buffalo | ||
| 16 | Alabama State (SWAC) | ^11 | BYU |
| 16 | Weber State (Big Sky) | ^11 | Minnesota |
| Wednesday: To St. Louis | Wednesday: To San Antonio | ||
| 16 | High Point (Big South) | 11 | Arkansas |
| 16 | Utah Valley (WAC) | 11 | Providence |
| BIDS BY CONFERENCE | AVOIDING DAYTON | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
| Big 12: 7 | California | None | None |
| Pac-12: 7 | Oregon | ||
| Big Ten: 6 | Xavier | ||
| A 10: 5 | Pittsburgh | ||
| AAC: 5 | LAST FOUR IN | ||
| ACC: 5 | Arkansas | ||
| Big East: 4 | Providence | ||
| SEC: 3 | BYU | ||
| MW: 2 | Minnesota | ||
| WCC: 2 | FIRST FOUR OUT | ||
| 1-Bid Conferences: 22 | Nebraska | ||
| Tennessee | |||
| Florida State | |||
| Dayton | |||
| NEXT FOUR OUT | |||
| Georgetown | |||
| Missouri | |||
| Southern Mississippi | |||
| St. John's |
Also considered: LSU, Indiana, Marquette, Clemson, N.C. State
Road to the Title
On Tuesday night, Baylor just about locked up its place by pulling away from Iowa State late, and Oregon gained a bit of breathing room by handling Arizona State in Eugene. Georgetown crept closer to the field by knocking off Creighton, while Big East rival Providence improved its position slightly by taking out Marquette after a pair of overtimes.
I was tempted to drop Creighton, AKA “The Big East bubble team’s best friend,” a line after the Bluejays fell to Georgetown (a result that happened to hand the conference regular season title to Villanova, by the way). However, that Iowa State loss made me keep the status quo for another day.
Wednesday night’s slate sees a few more bubble teams take the court with opportunities to make or break their NCAA cases.
- Nebraska will likely enter this projection tomorrow with a win at an Indiana squad that has hopes of its own.
- Dayton also has a chance to drastically improve its stock if it can pick up an unlikely win at Saint Louis. St. Joseph’s and George Washington, meanwhile, will meet in the nation’s capital with improved seeding perhaps on the line.
- Oklahoma and Texas -- both currently on the five line -- each have winnable home games. That said, the Sooners are looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of a West Virginia team that needs wins.
- Colorado travels to Stanford while Cal hosts Utah, and all four teams are still in with a chance (granted, in the case of the Utes, its minuscule because of their early-season schedule.) The Buffs-Cardinal game is particularly crucial in terms of seeding, since all four spots on the 10 line are occupied by Pac-12 schools in this projection, and California sits just behind.
- Arkansas, currently in, and Missouri and Tennessee, both currently just out, all face the possibility of the dreaded late bad loss. The task is a little trickier for the Volunteers, as they are on the road for their game with Auburn. The Razorbacks host Ole Miss, while Mizzou takes on a tricky Texas A&M team.
- There may also be changes to a pair of mid-major auto bids as Boston University (Patriot League) and Robert Morris (Northeast) play their conference tournament quarterfinals today. Both have home-court advantage, however.
I'll have a new bracketology post on Thursday morning, and with another hectic night on tap, expect to see more shuffling. In the meantime, head over to Blogging the Bracket for my daily TV previews and morning recaps, and follow me during each night's action on Twitter @ChrisDobbertean.
