Wisconsin's loss to Rutgers on Sunday night might have been the most stunning result of the wildest college basketball weekend of the season. The Badgers were on the road and without star center Frank Kaminsky as he recovered from a concussion, but it still seemed like Bo Ryan's veteran squad would have little trouble against a Rutgers team that lost to St. Peter's by 18 points earlier this year. So much for that.
Wisconsin is in capable hands with Bronson Koenig
With Traevon Jackson expected to be sidelined for majority of the regular season, Wisconsin needs Koenig to live up to his lofty recruiting hype.
Jim O’Connor-USA TODAY Sports
Ricky O'Donnell has covered basketball at all levels for more than a decade at SB Nation. He’s currently the Associate Director of Programming.
One bad game won't change the fact that Wisconsin is still the class of the Big Ten, mostly because no one else is particularly close. The bigger loss for the Badgers happened before the final buzzer even sounded, when senior point guard Traevon Jackson went down with a fractured foot. Jackson is expected to miss six weeks, which would mean he's targeting a return at the tail end of the regular season.
Losing Jackson will sting for a team that prefers to roll with a tight seven-man rotation. Jackson isn’t the same three-point threat he was a year ago, but he’s still been a slightly more efficient scorer while also cutting down his turnovers a bit as a senior. He’s Wisconsin’s biggest transition threat and has the size (6’2, 210 pounds) and athleticism to match-up with any guard in the Big Ten.
Foot injuries are scary, and there's no guarantee Jackson will be back on the projected timetable. It goes without saying that the Badgers are going to need their full rotation if they want to make another push for the Final Four. In the immediate, Wisconsin is about to give sophomore guard Bronson Koenig an increased workload. This could end up being a very good thing.
Koenig figured to play a big role at Wisconsin since the LaCrosse native chose the Badgers over scholarship offers from North Carolina, Duke and Virginia. UNC was said to be his dream school, but when another Wisconsin native (J.P. Tokoto) picked the Tar Heels seven months earlier, Koenig figured it was best to stay at home.
At the time, it was lauded as a major recruiting win for the Badgers. Koenig was considered a top 70 player in his class by some services. For a program that targets fit over kids with lofty numbers next to their names in recruiting rankings, Koenig was a notable departure from the usual course under Ryan.
Koenig played sparingly as a freshman, but has been a major part of the rotation so far this season. He's averaging 20 minutes per game to Jackson's 27, and combines with senior forward Duje Dukan to give the Badgers some offensive firepower off the bench.
With Jackson out, Koenig moves into the starting lineup. There’s a lot of evidence to suggest he might actually be an upgrade over Jackson.
Wisconsin currently has the No. 2 offense in college basketball per KenPom, and that shouldn’t change with Koenig getting more minutes. He’s scoring .976 points per possession while taking 7.3 percent of the team’s possessions, according to Synergy Sports. That ranks in the 78th percentile of the country. Jackson is scoring .917 points per possession, which is 65th percentile.
Koenig excels in isolation, which should give the Badgers a nice option late in the shot clock. Koenig is scoring 1.188 points per possession on isolation situations, per SynergySports, which is in the 94th percentile. Jackson, meanwhile, uses 20.5 percent of his possessions in isolation and scores just .704 points per possessions in those attempts, which is considered an average mark.
The other focus will be turnovers. Jackson has a turnover rate of 18.5 this season, which places him No. 52 in the Big Ten. Koenig has been able to protect the ball better, posting a 10.6 turnover rate, good for sixth best in the conference.
Wisconsin shouldn’t lose anything with Koenig installed as the pick-and-roll ball handler, either. Both players are scoring about 1.1 points per possession in such situations.
Defensively is where it could get interesting. Wisconsin is a solid if unspectacular defensive team, and certainly one with a lot of room to grow. At the moment, the Badgers rank No. 53 in the country in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Could more minutes from Koenig improve that mark? It’s possible.
Per SynergySports, Koenig is holding opposing offensive players to .631 points per possession this season, which is 87th percentile. Jackson is giving up .84, which is 46th percentile.
Koenig started against Rutgers with Kaminsky out and played well in his 31 minutes, scoring 12 points on 5-of-7 shooting with three assists and one turnover. He's always had the talent to be a great player under Ryan, he just hasn't received the opportunity yet up to this point in his career. Now he's running the show, which will give the Badgers a sneak peak at their future without Jackson, Kaminsky and possibly Sam Dekker next season.
Sustained success in college basketball is all about finding the right players to fit into your system, and Ryan has done a remarkable job at that. The groundwork for this team was laid when he recruited Kaminsky and Jackson in the class of 2011, and pulled Dekker in the class of 2012. The final two pieces were Nigel Hayes and Koenig in 2013. Hayes has already proven to be a major contributor in his first season and a half at Wisconsin. Now Koenig will get a chance to prove that he can be, too.
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