More so than any other major American sport, college basketball is a game with a postseason that holds far too much power. Four months of tremendous work and achievement can be rendered meaningless by one out-of-character performance in March. Have this happen multiple times in a relatively short period of time, and suddenly your entire program is branded as a loser ... regardless of how much it wins.
Is Notre Dame finally built for success in March?
The Fighting Irish are unlikely to turn their doubters into believers until they finally break through in March, something Mike Brey’s team appears fully capable of accomplishing.
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
This is the situation where Notre Dame basketball currently finds itself. The Fighting Irish have won 20 games before the calendar has turned to February, they are the only team in the ACC with eight wins, and they own a No. 8 national ranking that is set to improve after Wednesday night’s monumental triumph over No. 4 Duke.
And yet, even before the win over the Blue Devils was over, this was the prevailing sentiment from Notre Dame haters and fans alike:
Somebody should remind Notre Dame it is the regular season game. Don't choke in March.
— Michael Staley (@mlstaley) January 29, 2015 So when does Notre Dame flame out in the tournament this year?
— Willie (@WillieJungels) January 29, 2015 This win's going to make losing in the first week of the tournament that much tougher for Notre Dame fans to stomach come March.
— Craig Meyer (@CraigMeyerPG) January 29, 2015 Notre Dame 20-2 and have already beat Duke, UNC, and Mich St. And yes we will also still lose first round of tournament.
— Grant Moser (@GrantMoser) January 29, 2015 Of course, there’s a legitimate reason for the doubt.
Notre Dame has fielded several stellar squads over the past decade, teams whose ability to shred through the rugged Big East had seemed to indicate they'd be ready for whatever the NCAA Tournament had to throw at them. Instead, the Fighting Irish have won just two total NCAA Tournament games since 2003, which was also the last time they advanced out of the tournament's opening weekend.
The previous statement alone would be enough cause for alarm, but it’s been the way Mike Brey’s team has been bounced from the tournament that has been the most troubling.
All but one of Notre Dame’s six tournament losses since 2003 have come to a double-digit seed. That one outlier? A 20-point beatdown in 2008 at the hands of a Washington State team seeded just one line above the fifth-seeded Fighting Irish in a game where the vaunted Notre Dame offense was held to just 41 points. Outside of that, the Irish have been bounced by 11th-seeded Winthrop (2007), 11th-seeded Old Dominion (2010), 10th-seeded Xavier (2012), 10th-seeded Iowa State and perhaps most painfully of all, an embarrassing 71-57 defeat at the hands of 10th-seeded Florida State when the 2011 Irish were a No. 2 seed some thought had the potential to win it all.
Convincing the college basketball world that this Notre Dame team is different will be a pointless endeavor of Sisyphean proportions until the Fighting Irish finally get over the hump and do some serious damage in the big dance. There are reasons to believe that boulder will finally stay at the top of that hill in a couple of months.
Of course matchups are always crucial, and the possibility for one bad game at the wrong time is still out there, but this Notre Dame team has a better mix of next-level star power and complementary players at every position than any of Brey's past teams. Guys like Luke Harangody, Ben Hansbrough, Chris Thomas, Jack Cooley, and Kyle McAlarney were all terrific, but I'm not taking any of them over Jerian Grant if you're giving the first pick of the modern Irish litter.
If the season ended today, any voter who left Grant off their first team All-American ballot would deserve to be shamed publicly through the magic of the Internet. The senior guard leads the Fighting Irish in scoring at 17.4 ppg, and ranks 10th in the country in assists at 6.5 apg. His Win Shares total estimates that five Fighting Irish victories have been the direct result of his contributions, the most of any player in college basketball.
Against Duke on Wednesday, Grant's performance overshadowed a 22-point, 17-rebound effort from the player almost certain to be selected first overall in this summer's NBA Draft. As tremendous as Jahlil Okafor was, Grant was better, putting the team on his back to the tune of 23 points, 12 assists, six rebounds and three steals while playing all 40 minutes of the 77-73 Irish victory.
He made shots from the heart of the midcourt logo at one point:
And then he single-handedly stopped the Notre Dame students from rushing the court after the buzzer sounded:
It's hard to overstate the importance of star power in March, especially when it comes the guard position. Just ask the player to whom Grant has already drawn multiple comparisons: two-time national champion Shabazz Napier from Connecticut.
Grant can't carry the Fighting Irish to NCAA Tournament success by himself, of course, and he won't have to. Senior forward Pat Connaughton's decision to return to school and delay a full-time career in professional baseball was one of the most vital moves for this team's status as a legitimate title contender. Connaughton is a threat to score from any spot on the floor, as well as a guy who's not afraid to get his hands dirty in the paint and come away with 12-15 rebounds. Junior forward Zach Auguste is the perfect compliment to Grant because he runs the pick-and-roll better than any 6'10 player in America. Watching he and Grant do their thing up high during halfcourt sets makes you feel like you're watching an instructional video that you were supposed to have paid $19.95 for.
Take all of these pieces and put them together, and you have an offense that is averaging 124.4 points per 100 possessions. If the Fighting Irish are able to maintain that ridiculous pace, it would be the best average since Ken Pomeroy began tracking the statistic during the 2000-01 season.
In a season where college basketball has been widely lambasted for a product that is often described as “unwatchable,” Notre Dame is an aesthetically pleasing exception. A deep run for the Fighting Irish in March wouldn’t just be good for the sanity of everyone associated with the program, it’d be good for the sanity of everyone associated with the sport.
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