Preseason Bracketology: Kentucky edges its loaded rivals (for now)

Happy 2015-16 college basketball season everyone! The road to Houston and the Final Four looks like it might be even more action-packed than a 2014-15 season that saw Kentucky keep its perfect record all the way to the national semifinals—where it lost to Wisconsin ... who happened to fall to Duke two nights later.

Even though all three of those teams lost a significant amount of talent over the offseason, they naturally reloaded—the Wildcats and Blue Devils more so than the Badgers—and will be factors in the title race this season. Kentucky and Duke sit among 2016's likely elite, a group that also includes the team that replaced Wisconsin as the Big Ten favorite, Maryland, a pair of the Blue Devils' ACC rivals in North Carolina and Virginia and perennial Big 12 champion Kansas.

Below the top six, there's a slightly bigger group of teams with the talent to at least get to NRG Stadium. This pool includes Gonzaga—who fell to Duke in the South Regional final in that building last season; a Wichita State team that might be better than the recent editions that made the Final Four and went through the regular season undefeated; Iowa State and Oklahoma, Kansas's main competition in the Big 12; and the Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana squads that will challenge Maryland for the Big Ten crown.

Remember that a preseason bracket is barely worth the pixels it's presented in. Last season, 44 of the 68 teams in my preseason projection ended up in the actual field. I correctly predicted 23 of the 36 at-large teams last November, a total not helped by the down seasons UConn, Florida, Kansas State, Michigan, Nebraska, Pitt, and Syracuse experienced.

You may have noticed a few teams' placement based on this season's sites. Villanova can play in the East Regional in Philadelphia, since the Wildcats will only play three games at the Wells Fargo Center, the maximum allowed under NCAA rules, and La Salle is the host institution. Similarly, Gonzaga may head down the road to Spokane Arena, a venue they don't visit at all during the regular season. Idaho is the designated host there. Both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are permitted to play in Oklahoma City, as the Big 12 has host responsibilities in the state capital.

On the other hand, Louisville cannot be placed in the South Region, since they're the hosts, while in the earlier rounds, North Carolina State and Providence must travel and Iowa State must journey further than Des Moines. The Cyclones host Wells Fargo Arena's first March Madness weekend.

The first concerns the First Four. Last season, UCLA was a shock at-large selection, earning a direct spot in the Round of 64, while Dayton, whom many thought was safe, ended up playing a First Four game on its home floor. Thanks in part to the controversy that resulted, the Selection Committee will now subject the last four at-large teams selected to the same discussion and seed scrubbing process that all of the other teams selected for the field previously underwent.

The second change affects teams at the top of the field. In the past few seasons, the Selection Committee has abandoned the S-Curve previously used to build the bracket. That approach strove to match the top one seed with the worst two seed, the second one with the third-ranked two, and so on. Recent brackets have instead focused on keeping teams closer to their natural regions, which is why Arizona was the two in Wisconsin's West region and Kansas filled that role in Kentucky's Midwest bracket one season ago.