Breaking down college basketball’s most competitive conference championship races

With just 20 days to go until Selection Sunday, teams across the country are either entering their final week or their penultimate week of regular season play. For squads like Kentucky, Wisconsin and Gonzaga which have already locked up (or all but locked up in Wisconsin and Kentucky’s cases) conference crowns, these games are all about getting ready for March and tournament play. For the majority of leagues, however, there’s still tons of drama that’s about to unfold.

Here’s a look at the best conference races you should be paying attention to between now and the final day of the regular season March 8.

The Favorite: Virginia (13-1)

Though they’ve sometimes looked shaky in the process, the Cavaliers have won all four of their games without injured leading scorer Justin Anderson, who figures to remain on the sidelines with a broken finger until at least the ACC Tournament. The good news for UVA is that they remain a full two games ahead of everyone else in the conference, and with the exception of the regular season finale at Louisville, their final four games are all “should wins.”

The Contenders: Notre Dame (12-3) and Duke (11-3)

The Blue Devils own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Virginia, so if the Hoos somehow lose twice, Duke runs the table and Notre Dame loses at least once, the fighting Coach Ks will be the No. 1 seed in Greensboro. UVA taking the title outright seems like the much more plausible scenario.

Key Games:

Notre Dame at Louisville (3/4)
Virginia at Louisville (3/7)
Duke at North Carolina (3/7)

The Favorite: SMU (13-2)

The Mustangs have been considered the AAC’s best team for a while now, and remain the league’s lone sure-thing to make the NCAA Tournament (although the consensus seems to be that both Cincinnati and Temple would be in the field if it were announced today). SMU’s only league losses remain a season sweep at the hands of Cincinnati, but they’ll have to go on the road to knock off the talented duo of UConn and Memphis in order to set up a de facto championship game in the regular season finale against Tulsa.

The Contender: Tulsa (12-2)

The Golden Hurricane are a half-game behind SMU, but still can win the championship outright with four straight wins. No other team in the conference has fewer than five league losses.

Key Games:

SMU at Memphis (2/26)
Tulsa at Memphis (2/28)
SMU at UConn (3/1)
Cincinnati at Tulsa (3/4)
Tulsa at SMU (3/8)

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The Favorite: VCU (11-3)

The Rams certainly aren’t the favorite they were before Brionte Weber was lost for the season and Treveon Graham re-tweaked an ankle injury, but they’re still at the top of the standings (thanks to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker with Rhode Island) and have still looked like the league’s best team since Graham’s return. Shaka Smart has never won a regular season conference championship, but he’s four wins away from changing that.

The Contenders: Rhode Island (11-3), Dayton (10-4) and Davidson (10-4)

This might be the most entertaining conference race in the country to follow for the next 12 days. All four of the teams at the top of the standings play two of the three other teams in the hunt at some point between now and March 7.

Key Games:

Davidson at Rhode Island (2/25)
Dayton at VCU (2/28)
Rhode Island at Dayton (3/3)
VCU at Davidson (3/5)

The Favorite: Florida Gulf Coast (11-1)
Dunk City is back, y’all. The Eagles are 21-7, own a win over UMass on a neutral court, and still have a couple familiar faces from the 2013 Sweet 16 run. They lead the conference by one game with two contests left to play.

The Contender: North Florida (10-2)

The Ospreys (Ospreys!) are the only team in the A-Sun to knock off FGCU this season, and get their chance at a season sweep Wednesday.

Key Game:

North Florida at Florida Gulf Coast (2/25)

The Favorite: Kansas (11-3)

Who else? The Jayhawks made things a little more interesting with a loss at West Virginia last week, but they still need to win just three of their last four to clinch at least a share of their 11th straight Big 12 regular season title.

The Contenders: Iowa State (10-4), Oklahoma (10-5) and West Virginia (9-5)

The Sooners and Mountaineers both have shots left at Kansas, while the Cyclones and Jayhawks have already split their season series.

Key Games:

Oklahoma at Iowa State (3/2)
West Virginia at Kansas (3/3)
Kansas at Oklahoma (3/7)

COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION
The Favorite: None

The Contenders: Northeastern (11-5), William & Mary (11-5), James Madison (11-5) and UNC-Wilmington (11-5)

The CAA has a four-way tie at the top of its standings as it begins the final week of the regular season. There is no other conference in the country that can say that now, nor one that will be able to say that in seven days. The only downside? There is just one game featuring two teams from the quartet, Wednesday’s tilt between James Madison and UNC-Wilmington. Northeastern wraps up against the bottom two teams in the conference, while William & Mary gets to play both of its last two games at home.

If you’re looking sentimental favorites, William & Mary and UNCW are probably the best route. The Tribe (that’s William & Mary) is one of just five original Division I programs that has never qualified for the NCAA Tournament, and they dropped a gut-wrenching 75-74 decision to Delaware in last season’s CAA title game. Wilmington, meanwhile, has finished at or near the bottom of the league for the last six seasons, and was picked second-to-last in the league’s preseason poll. First-year front man Kevin Keatts has done one of the best coaching jobs in the country.

Key Games:

James Madison at UNC-Wilmington (2/25)
Drexel at William & Mary (2/28)

The Favorite: Louisiana Tech (12-3)

The Bulldogs -- the preseason favorites and likely the league’s most talented team -- made things interesting by going on the road and getting thumped by Old Dominion over the weekend. They still control their own destiny with three games to go, and all three of those games will be played at home.

The Contenders: UTEP (11-3) and UAB (11-4)

UAB beat Louisiana Tech by 20 at the beginning of this month, but has one more loss than both the Bulldogs and UTEP. The Miners have a chance to put themselves in the driver’s seat by pulling off an upset at Tech Thursday night.

Key Games:

UTEP at Louisiana Tech (2/26)
Middle Tennessee at UAB (2/28)

IVY LEAGUE

The Favorite: Harvard (9-1)

The Crimson became the first Ivy League team in 30 years to earn a preseason ranking, but quickly fell out of both polls after an underwhelming non-conference performance. They then dropped their second game of the Ivy League’s “14-game tournament” before reeling off eight straight wins.

The Contender: Yale (8-2)

The Bulldogs are the only team within three games of Harvard, but they slipped a game behind the Crimson after an upset home loss to Columbia Saturday. If they take care of business this weekend then they’ll get a chance to even the score and potentially set up a one-game playoff by winning at Harvard March 6.

Key Games:

Princeton at Yale (2/27)
Harvard at Columbia (2/28)
Yale at Harvard (3/6)

The Favorite: None

The Contenders: Northern Iowa (15-1) and Wichita State (15-1)

Impossible to pick a favorite here Northern Iowa owns the top 10 national ranking and beat the Shockers by 16 last month, but Wichita State has been dominant since then and gets to host the rematch on Saturday. Assuming both teams win their games on Wednesday (which, naturally, come against the conference’s No. 3 and No. 4 teams), we’ll have a de facto regular season championship game inside Charles Koch Arena.

Key Games:

Evansville at Northern Iowa (2/25)
Wichita State at Indiana State (2/25)
Northern Iowa at Wichita State (2/28)

MOUNTAIN WEST
The Favorite: San Diego State (12-3)

So long as Steve Fisher is there, everyone should just give up on the Aztecs ever not being good.

The Contenders: Wyoming (10-4), Boise State (10-4) and Colorado State (10-5)

Boise State, which beat San Diego State by 15 on Feb. 8, is the only one of the three that still has a shot at the league leaders. Wyoming was swept by the Aztecs while Colorado State managed a split.

Key Games:

Boise State at San Diego State (2/28)
Utah State at Wyoming (3/4)
San Diego State at UNLV (3/4)
Colorado State at Utah State (3/7)

The Favorite: Arizona (12-2)

For the Wildcats, winning the conference outright is just a means to the end of achieving their larger goal right now: earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Contender: Utah (11-3)

The Utes slipped up at Oregon Sunday, but still have a chance to put themselves in position for at least a share of the title when they host Arizona Saturday. Like the Wildcats, Delon Wright and company are probably just as fixated on their seed in the big dance as they are the conference race at this point.

Key Games:

Arizona at Utah (2/28)
Stanford at Arizona (3/7)

The Favorite: Stephen F. Austin (12-1)

The Lumberjacks won a game in the dance a year ago and are again a threat to make a run to the tournament’s second weekend this year, but as of right now they’re not even leading their own conference. That honor belongs to Sam Houston State, which is also fully capable of winning a game or two in the big dance if they can play their way into the field.

The Contender: Sam Houston State (13-1)

The Bearkats are 22-5 and their only loss since a 76-67 setback at LSU Dec. 13 is an 11-point loss to SFA. They’ll have a chance for revenge and potentially a conference title March 7.

Key Games:

Sam Houston State at Texas A&M-CC (2/28)
Northwestern State at Stephen F. Austin (3/5)
Sam Houston State at Stephen F. Austin (3/5)

The Favorite: None

The Contenders: Georgia Southern (12-4), Georgia State (12-4) and Louisiana-Monroe (12-4)

This was supposed to be a league dominated by “super mid-major” Georgia State, but the Panthers have been bested four times in conference play, and still have two games remaining against their fellow first-place squads. Of the three teams, it would appear as though Monroe has the friendliest path to claiming the top seed for the league tourney.

Key Games:

Georgia Southern at Louisiana-Lafayette (2/28)
Georgia State at Louisiana-Monroe (3/5)
Georgia Southern at Georgia State (3/7)