In recent years, the debate over whether playing deep into a conference tournament might hurt a team’s chances in the NCAA Tournament has become as much of a constant during this week as mock brackets and bubble watches. You’d think Connecticut winning five games in five days on its way to the 2011 national championship would have squashed such talk forever, but here we are.
In there a benefit to losing early in your conference tournament?
Fans of teams that are upset early on in their conference tournament love to play the “extra rest” card, but is there actually any benefit to not having to play three or four consecutive games the week before the start of the NCAA Tournament?
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The two main points utilized by the side wary of playing three or four games in as many days the week before the bid dance are: 1) Sometimes a good team needs a loss before the big dance in order to restore focus; and 2) Playing three (or four ... or five) games in as many days leaves a team exhausted and vulnerable the week after.
While it’s certainly possible that there are teams out there that would benefit from some type of wake-up call, far more often than not the groups with that little focus typically aren’t championship caliber squads to begin with. The teams that need more than three days of rest to be 100 percent for a game, and the ones that aren’t mature enough to approach each and every contest with the right mindset, probably aren’t worthy of much faith in your office pool. If a team doesn’t have the focus to win in early March or the legs to win three games in three days, then it likely doesn’t have the focus to win in late March, or the legs to win six games in three weeks.
The contrarian crowd always seems to bring up the same two examples: the 1996 and 2012 Kentucky Wildcats, two of the greatest teams in history in college basketball and two teams which did not win their conference tournament. My initial response to this point is that both of those UK teams lost in the SEC championship game, which eliminates any potential "well-rested" argument. My secondary response is that both of those teams were such a superior breed that they can't be judged with an ordinary barometer.
Let’s put the “Kentucky” argument behind us and look at some additional facts:
No team has ever lost its first conference tournament game and gone on to win the national championship.
Every Final Four but one (2009) since 2004 has included at least one conference tournament champion.
Three of the four national semifinalists from 2007, 2010 and 2011 were conference tournament champions, and all four teams in the 2008 Final Four won their league tourney. The anomaly, again, is 2009, when national semifinalists Michigan State (Big Ten), Villanova (Big East), Connecticut (Big East), and North Carolina (ACC) had all bowed out early in their respective conference tournament.
Over the past eight seasons, the six major (“Power 5” plus the Big East) conference tournament champions are 139-43, good for a winning percentage of 76.4 percent.
All six BCS conference tournament champions advanced to the Elite Eight in 2007. The other two quarterfinalists were Memphis -- which won the Conference USA Tournament -- and UCLA.
Over the past 20 seasons, 18 eventual national champions have played in a conference tournament (‘sup, old Pac-10?), and all but four of those national champions advanced to their conference tournament championship game. North Carolina (2009 and 2005), Syracuse (2003) and Maryland (2002) all lost in their conference tournament’s semifinals. Eleven of those 18 national champions also won their conference tournament.
None of this is to say that there is a direct correlation between conference tournament success and NCAA Tournament success, it’s just to say that there is not a direct correlation between bowing out of a conference tournament early and riding that “additional rest” to success in the big dance. The best teams typically win their games regardless of the circumstance (brilliant!), and the statistics here are pretty clear. Winning three or four (or five) games in as many days puts you at no disadvantage as far as the NCAA Tournament is concerned.
Coaches already have way too many timeouts, there are media stoppages every 4 minutes, and it takes about 25 minutes of real time to play the final 2 minutes of any close game now because of all the official reviews. Even if a team that only goes seven or eight guys deep is playing its third game in three days, the kids are going to be all right.
While hoisting a league tournament trophy may not provide any sort of magic edge for the succeeding weeks, there’s no question that it does improve seeding and breeds confidence. If you’re a fan of a team playing for a conference title this week, there’s no part of you that should quietly be rooting for an early exit. Championships are always good.
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