The BYU Cougars remain in this projection, despite falling to the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the West Coast Conference final in Las Vegas. However, an injury to senior guard Skyler Halford in the final moments of the game might have changed BYU's fate, at least from a seeding perspective. Sitting five spots north of the cut line, the Cougars will just have to wait and see what happens as the major conferences play between now and Sunday. I'll write more about their case, and those of the other bubble teams, as the week rolls on.
Bracketology: BYU stays in the projection despite losing to Gonzaga
Gonzaga headlines the quartet of teams that claimed their places in the field of 68 on Tuesday night. Wednesday sees just one auto bid awarded, while the major conferences slowly move into tournament play, with fewer games of bid impact than you would expect for four days before Selection Sunday.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Three other teams joined the WCC power from Spokane in securing spots in the show on an exciting Tuesday night.
Like William & Mary on Monday night, the St. Francis-Brooklyn Terriers failed to break their 0-for-ever NCAA drought, falling on their own floor to the Robert Morris Colonials in the Northeast Conference championship. The Terriers' Tyreek Jewell was fouled attempting a three in the dying seconds, but heartbreakingly missed all three foul shots, sending the Colonials to their first tournament since 2010. "Bobby Mo" is a likely 16 seed and possible First Four participant.
SB Nation presents: College hoops teams sweating it out as Selection Sunday approaches
The Valparaiso Crusaders upended the Green Bay Phoenix to claim the Horizon League's automatic bid for the second time in three seasons. Right now, the Crusaders are penciled in as a 13, though a 12 is quite possible, depending on results elsewhere over the next five days. The Phoenix, meanwhile, should get at-large consideration, though their RPI ranking is perilously close to 70, meaning they are in the danger zone for selection.
In a Badlands showdown, the North Dakota State Bison clinched their second straight NCAA appearance by holding off the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the Summit League final in Sioux Falls, S.D. The Bison qualified, despite missing two late front-end bonus free throws, mostly due to a poor three-point attempt by the Jackrabbits' Deondre Parks at the buzzer.
Taking these results into account the Wednesday bracket is largely unchanged from the Tuesday version, other than for our two new automatic qualifiers in ALL CAPS, of course.
| (1) MIDWEST Cleveland (Thu/Sat) | (2) EAST Syracuse (Fri/Sun) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville (Thu/Sat) | Charlotte (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 1 | Kentucky (SEC) | 1 | Virginia (ACC) |
| 16 | COASTAL CAROLINA/NORTH FLORIDA | 16 | Montana/ROBERT MORRIS |
| 8 | Dayton | 8 88 | Xavier |
| 9 | N.C. State | 9 | Ohio State |
| Jacksonville (Thu/Sat) | Seattle (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 5 | West Virginia | 5 | North Carolina |
| 12 | WOFFORD (SoCon) | 122 | Harvard (Ivy) |
| 4 | Louisville | 4 | NORTHERN IOWA (MVC) |
| 13 | Stephen F. Austin (Southland) | 13 | Central Michigan (MAC) |
| Columbus (Fri/Sun) | Pittsburgh (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 6 | Providence | 6 | Georgetown |
| 11 | Purdue | 11 | Georgia |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 3 | Maryland |
| 14 | UC Davis (Big West) | 14 | NORTHEASTERN (CAA) |
| Omaha (Fri/Sun) | Omaha (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 7 | St. John's | 7 | Iowa |
| 10 | Davidson (A 10) | 10 | Ole Miss |
| 2 | Wisconsin (Big Ten) | 2 | Kansas (Big 12) |
| 15 | BELMONT (OVC) | 15 | MANHATTAN (MAAC) |
| (4) WEST Los Angeles (Thu/Sat) | (3) SOUTH Houston (Fri/Sun) | ||
| Pittsburgh (Thu/Sat) | Charlotte (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 1 | Villanova (Big East) | 1 | Duke |
| 16 | Lafayette (Patriot) | 16 | Texas Southern (SWAC) |
| 8 | Cincinnati | 8 | VCU |
| 9 | Oregon | 9 | LSU |
| Jacksonville (Thu/Sat) | Portland (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 5 | Arkansas | 5 | Butler |
| 12 | BYU | 12 | Louisiana Tech (C-USA) |
| 4 | Baylor | 4 | Utah |
| 13 | VALPARAISO (Horizon) | 13 | Georgia State (Sun Belt) |
| Columbus (Fri/Sun) | Louisville (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 6 | SMU (AAC) | 6 | Wichita State |
| 11 | Colorado State/Texas | 11 | Indiana/Temple |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 3 | Iowa State |
| 14 | N.C. Central (MEAC) | *14 | NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit) |
| Portland (Thu/Sat) | Seattle (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 7 | Michigan State | 7 | San Diego State |
| 10 | Boise State (MW) | 10 | Oklahoma State |
| 2 | Arizona (Pac-12) | 2 | GONZAGA (WCC) |
| 15 | Albany (AE) | 15 | New Mexico State (WAC) |
| FIRST FOUR (Dayton) | |||
| Tuesday: To Louisville | Tuesday: To Louisville | ||
| 16 | COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South) | 11 | Indiana |
| 16 | NORTH FLORIDA (A-Sun) | 11 | Temple |
| Wednesday: To Charlotte | Wednesday: To Columbus | ||
| 16 | Montana (Big Sky) | 11 | Colorado State |
| *16 | ROBERT MORRIS (NEC) | 11 | Texas |
* = new team
| BIDS BY CONFERENCE | AVOIDING DAYTON | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
| Big 12: 7 | Oklahoma State | North Dakota State | St. Francis-Brooklyn |
| Big Ten: 7 | Purdue | Robert Morris | South Dakota State |
| ACC: 6 | Georgia | ||
| Big East: 6 | BYU | ||
| SEC: 5 | LAST FOUR IN | ||
| AAC: 3 | Colorado State | ||
| A 10: 3 | Indiana | ||
| MW: 3 | Texas | ||
| Pac-12: 3 | Temple | ||
| MVC: 2 | FIRST FOUR OUT | ||
| WCC: 2 | Texas A&M | ||
| One-Bid Conferences: 21 | Miami | ||
| UCLA | |||
| Old Dominion | |||
| NEXT FOUR OUT | |||
| Illinois | |||
| Tulsa | |||
| Stanford | |||
| Iona |
Also considered (in rank order): Murray State, Richmond, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Rhode Island, Buffalo
Note that I switched BYU’s position with one of the First Four games to keep the Cougars on a Thursday-Saturday path through both the first and second weekends.
Only one automatic bid is on the line on Wednesday night, and it’s the final one that will be awarded until Saturday afternoon.
Patriot League Championship, 7:30 p.m. (CBSSN)
The Lafayette Leopards, last an NCAA team in 2000, will host the defending tournament champion American University Eagles for a possible shot at a one seed next week. Note that the Eagles swept the Leopards during the regular season.
In the realm of at-large bids, Wednesday’s slate isn’t all that appetizing, even though the ACC Tournament moves into its second day, and the Atlantic 10, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Conference USA, Mountain West, Pac-12 and SEC all start proceedings. You can blame conference expansion for that.
Still, the evening will offer some games of interest. North Carolina State is rather safe now, and a loss to a Pittsburgh team (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ACC Network) that likely needs the ACC auto bid to reach the field, won't change that. Miami, in need of a deep run in Greensboro to slide into the field, must open with a victory over the same Virginia Tech outfit it hammered in Blacksburg to close the regular season (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ACC Network).
Texas, currently among the "Last Four In" will surely be NIT-bound with a loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 First Round (9:30 p.m., ESPNU). Then, Stanford's slim hopes will completely evaporate if it fails to defeat Washington in the Pac-12 nightcap (11:30 p.m, Pac-12 Networks).
So, there might very well be some changes near the cut line in Thursday’s projection, just in time for the real fun to begin after the clock strikes noon on the East Coast. To me, that’s the moment when the Madness feels like it is well and truly beginning.
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