N.C. State looks like a team no one wants to play in March

One of the defining trends of the NCAA Tournament over the last few years has been the ability of a double-digit seed to make a run through the bracket without really being an underdog. We’re talking about teams from major conferences that have as much talent as anyone, it just didn’t come together as quickly as they might have hoped.

It happened last season when No. 11 Tennessee started in the First Four but won three games to reach the Sweet 16. The year before that it was No. 12 Oregon reaching the Sweet 16. The year before that it was No. 11 N.C. State doing the same. The 2011 tournament gave us 10th-seeded Florida State and No. 11 Marquette winning two games to get past the first weekend, while No. 11 Washington reached the Sweet 16 in 2010.

There’s a number of candidates who could pull off the same trick this season, and admittedly this exercise is a bit pointless until the final draw comes out. Matchups are everything in a single elimination format. What you’re looking for is a team with a good mix of offensive and defensive talent, a number of big-time recruits and multiple wins over elite opponents. Mark Gottfried’s N.C. State squad seems to fit the criteria this season.

N.C. State picked up a win over Pitt in its first game of the ACC Tournament on Wednesday by showcasing how good it can be when firing on all cylinders. Point guard Anthony ‘Cat’ Barber was the star of the show, knocking down four three-pointers on his way to a career-high 34 points to go along with five assists in the win. Trevor Lacey added 21 points, Beejay Anya gave Gottfried 29 minutes of quality interior defense and the Wolfpack were able to limit turnovers.

N.C. State faces Duke on Thursday afternoon in a game that should be a good litmus test for the type of team the Wolfpack is likely to see in the tournament if they can make it past the round of 64. N.C. State has already beaten Duke once, on Jan. 11, and that was when the Blue Devils were undefeated. That’s just one of several signature wins N.C. State has this year. It’s also beaten Louisville on the road when the Cards were No. 9 in the polls and North Carolina on the road when the Tar Heels were No. 15.

If N.C. State would have finished the job against then-No. 8 Notre Dame (the Irish won in OT) or No. 2 Virginia (the Cavaliers won by four), it’s likely we’d be talking about the Wolfpack in the top half of the bracket, not the bottom.

Timing is everything in college basketball, and N.C. State seems to be playing its best ball during the right part of the calendar. Early season losses to Purdue and Southern Conference champ Wofford seem like long ago. N.C. State has won six of its last seven and have the makeup of a team no one wants to play in March.

The first thing that’s evident when it comes to the roster is that there’s a lot of blue chip talent here. Gottfried is a tireless recruiter and it’s paid off in big ways over the last few years. Last year’s scoring stud T.J. Warren is off to the NBA, but it’s allowed other players to step up in bigger roles. Many of them have proven to be capable of handling more offensive responsibility.

Barber was the No. 26 recruit in the country in 2013, per ESPN, and turned down a scholarship from Kansas to come to N.C. State. He’s one of the fastest players in college basketball and the perfect floor general to get the Wolfpack moving up and down the court. Lacey was a top-50 recruit, too, who landed by Alabama before deciding to transfer to N.C. State. He sat out last season and is now a 23-year-old junior. He’s been tremendous this year, leading the team in scoring (16.2 points per game), rebounding well and shooting over 40 percent from three.

The two X-factors are guard Ralston Turner and the big man Anya. Turner is another top-100 talent who transferred from LSU. He’s a gunner in the purest sense, taking over seven three-pointers per game and knocking them down at nearly a 37 percent clip. He was 0-for-5 from deep against Pitt on Wednesday, but he’s capable of heating up in a hurry, as evident by the eight (of 17!) threes he hit against Tennessee earlier this year, and the five (of 13!) threes he knocked down in a win over Syracuse.

Anya is something of a cult hero for his 7’9 wingspan. He’s never been in great shape, but has worked on his conditioning throughout the year to get to a place where he can play 30 quality minutes. Anya is third in the country in block rate according to KenPom. He had six blocks in the win over the Tar Heels and 10 (!) against Jacksonville early in the season:

N.C. State’s statistical profile isn’t overwhelming. They’re No. 30 in offensive efficiency and No. 78 in defensive efficiency. It’s played a murderous schedule in the ACC and has battled inconsistency. The Wolfpack are far from a safe bet, but they’re an interesting one that could have a nice payoff.

If Barber plays like he did on Wednesday, if Lacey plays like he has all year and if Turner gets hot, watch out. If nothing else, N.C. State has the pieces in place to scare a couple teams when the NCAA Tournament finally arrives.