In a span of about five minutes just after 5:30 p.m. ET, teams like BYU, Colorado State, Indiana, Temple, Texas, and Tulsa were able to exhale a bit, as two potential dangerous teams sitting on the outside of my Thursday morning projection dropped games in their respective conference tournaments.
Bracketology: Old Dominion, Texas A&M fade away from NCAA Tournament consideration
In Thursday’s mid-afternoon window, the Monarchs and Aggies both dropped games they badly needed, shrinking the bubble significantly. Meanwhile, Boise State stepped to safety.
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Texas A&M, the second team south of the cut line this morning, dropped a 66-59 decision to an Auburn team that's currently ranked 156th in the RPI. The defeat not only deflated the Aggies' own RPI, but it deprived them of the chance of grabbing a third win over LSU in Friday's SEC Tournament quarterfinals. Other than those wins over the Bayou Bengals, an A&M team that's 8-10 against the Top 100 simply doesn't have much to sell the Selection Committee.
Just before the game in Nashville went final, a bit further south in Birmingham, Conference USA three seed Old Dominion saw its six-game winning streak snapped by Middle Tennessee in that league's quarterfinals. While the Monarchs have a pair of Top 50 wins, over LSU in the Paradise Jam and VCU in Norfolk, they now have four losses against teams ranked lower than 150th. ODU is also a middling 7-7 away from home, a total that includes wins over the Bayou Bengals and Gardner-Webb in the Virgin Islands (and a loss to Illinois State in the same event).
UCLA, the final bubble team in action during the afternoon group of games, would be well-advised to defeat USC in the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas.
On the brighter side of the bubble, Boise State avoided a potential landmine, defeating Air Force handily in the Mountain West quarterfinals. I would be shocked if the Broncos, who have just lost once in the last two months, would be left out now.
Here’s an updated look at the picture near the cut line as Thursday’s primetime lineup approaches.
Avoiding Dayton: Oklahoma State, Purdue, Georgia, BYU
If the Cowboys defeat Oklahoma Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament (9:30 p.m., ESPNU), they'll be able to make travel plans for next Thursday or Friday. The others are either waiting until Friday (Purdue, Georgia) or Sunday (BYU).
Last Four IN: Colorado State, Indiana, Texas, Temple
The Hoosiers (against Northwestern at 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) and Longhorns (facing Iowa State, 7 p.m., ESPNU) can grab needed wins early in the evening, while the Rams play Fresno State later (11:30 p.m., CBSSN). The Owls begin American Athletic Tourney play on Friday.
First Four OUT: Miami, UCLA, Tulsa, Stanford
Everyone in this group plays Thursday, except for the Golden Hurricanes, who begin play in Hartford on Friday. The Hurricanes can grab a real marquee win by toppling Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament quarters (9:30 p.m., ESPN/ACC Network), while the Bruins are in action now and the Cardinal will take the court later in Las Vegas (against Utah, 11:30 p.m., ESPN).
Next Four OUT: Texas A&M, Iona, Illinois, Murray State
Don't look now, but the Racers (and Gaels) for that matter aren't out of this yet. However, the fact that they (and the Aggies and Fighting Illini for that matter) aren't on the court for the remainder of the week doesn't really help.
More updates as events warrant this evening. Plus, you can follow me on Twitter (@ChrisDobbertean) for my real-time thoughts.
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