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Come Fan with UsSaturday, June 20, 2026

Bracketology: What happens to Texas after collapse against Iowa State?

Iowa State never led the Longhorns until the buzzer sounded, meaning the Selection Committee will determine Texas’ March fate. Indiana and UCLA, on the other hand, picked up vital wins, but Friday will be more significant for both.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa State's Monte Morris might have just relegated Texas to the NIT with his buzzer beater in Thursday's third Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal. That shot capped a 12-0 finishing kick for the Cyclones -- one delivered right to the Longhorns' midsection.

Over the weekend, you can bet that the Selection Committee will spend a lot of time discussing Texas' profile. The two biggest pluses are the fact that the 'Horns are in the RPI Top 40 (currently 39th), which would basically lead to automatic selection in most cases, and their lack of bad losses. Seriously, the worst loss Texas owns is one to fellow bubble team Stanford, who is just outside the Top 50 at this point.

However, Rick Barnes' squad is a somewhat unfathomable 3-12 against the Top 50, a mark that would drop to 3-13 if the Cardinal moved up, say by defeating Utah tonight.

For the moment, the Longhorns are the last team in, but they could very well be passed in the coming days or see their spot disappear entirely, if a team such as Connecticut won the American Athletic Conference tourney.

North Carolina State was the early evening's other big loser, having been blown out by Duke in the ACC Tournament's first game of the night. The Wolfpack should remain in, but their seeding might just have taken a bit of a hit.

On the positive side of the ledger, Indiana took care of business against Northwestern to set up a game against Maryland on Friday night at the Big Ten Tournament. The Hoosiers remain in the Dayton group, but could conceivably jump out of it with a win over the Terrapins tomorrow night. Out West, UCLA's win over USC didn't get them into the field, but it gives the Bruins a chance to meet Arizona in tomorrow night's semifinals. A win in that would might very well secure a fourth bid for the Pac-12 Tournament.

Here’s an updated look at the traffic near the tournament cut line as the late evening games get started.

Avoiding Dayton: Oklahoma State, Purdue, Georgia, BYU
The Cowboys face Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament's quarterfinal nightcap (9:30 p.m., ESPNU).

Last Four IN: Colorado State, Indiana, Texas, Temple
The Rams are the only team out of this group that will see action in the late night hours, as they take on Fresno State in the Mountain West Tournament quarters (11:30 p.m., CBSSN)

First Four OUT: Miami, UCLA, Tulsa, Stanford
The Hurricanes will look to upend Notre Dame in the fourth ACC quarterfinal, a result that would push them into the Friday projection (9:30 p.m., ESPN/ACC Network). Stanford faces Utah in the final Pac-12 quarterfinal, but a win over the Utes would not be enough to boost the Cardinal beyond the cut line (11:30 p.m., Pac-12 Networks).

Next Four OUT: Texas A&M, Iona, Illinois, Murray State
This quartet is just waiting and hoping at this point.

I’ll have one last update Thursday evening after the conclusion of play in the ACC and Big 12, and a full bracket Friday morning.

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