Bracketology: Ole Miss and Texas are on the edge of the bubble

A busy Thursday of conference tournament action started with Illinois digging a 14-2 hole against Michigan, then taking a 16-14 lead, and finally collapsing under the weight of expectation. As the day moved on, Old Dominion and Texas A&M also fell by the wayside, while Texas coughed up a big lead to Iowa State to edge nearer to the cut line, after Indiana had picked up a crucial win and UCLA had put themselves in position to earn one on Friday. As the evening dragged on, Miami couldn't overcome an early deficit against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, ruining their hopes, while Ole Miss might have played its way out of the field, with the type of ill-advised foul on a desperation three that would have led to the creation of the #SECBasketballFever hashtag, if it didn't exist already. The evening concluded with Stanford playing itself out of contention with a loss to Utah.

Heading into Friday, there are no new names in the bracket when compared to Thursday, but with the final two teams in the field -- Ole Miss and Texas -- sitting at home waiting for the Selection Committee to call on Sunday night, changes are coming. With UCLA, Temple, and Tulsa still in control of their own destinies -- Georgia facing a tricky SEC quarterfinal, and potential surprise auto bid qualifiers lurking in the American, Atlantic 10, and Mountain West -- changes are inevitable.

Note that I switched BYU's position with one of the First Four games to keep the Cougars on a Thursday-Saturday path through both the first and second weekends.

This group started to fill up nicely early in the week, and will pick up again tonight, surprisingly. That's because the winner of the SWAC semifinal between Texas Southern and Prairie View will claim the auto bid, since the other two semifinalists -- Alabama State and Southern -- are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

North Carolina rejoined the top 16, following Thursday's ACC quarterfinal win over Louisville.

Many of these teams are new, including Oregon, Davidson, and Boise State. However, with the way things have unfolded so far, I find it very difficult to believe that any member of this trio will be left out at this point, especially the Wildcats and Broncos, who now boast regular season conference crowns.

The North Carolina State may have to sweat things out after getting blown out by Duke Blue Devils in the ACC quarters, but the result should ultimately impact their seeding only. LSU and Purdue, on the other hand, simply cannot afford to lose today.

Oklahoma State did themselves no favors by getting blasted by Oklahoma in their Bedlam Big 12 quarter, which was decidedly not. Georgia's hopes could end with a loss today, while BYU has moved up thanks to the misfortunes of others. Colorado State is still very much alive for the Mountain West auto bid.

Of the 12 teams closest to the cut line from the wrong side, only five have games left, with UCLA, Tulsa, and Richmond having the most legitimate chances of moving up. Rhode Island and Buffalo, both coached by Hurley brothers, will almost certainly need conference tourney titles to make the field. Both squads are decently placed to get there.

In the 12-1 p.m. Eastern window, it's all about quarterfinal round play top seeds, and at this point every team in this group, even the Atlantic 10's No. 1, Davidson, is safe. While the Wildcats face La Salle in Brooklyn (12 p.m., NBCSN), Wisconsin will continue its push toward the top line against Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament (12 p.m., ESPN), while SMU opens its American Athletic Tournament campaign against East Carolina (12 p.m., ESPN2). At 1 p.m., Kentucky, the likely No. 1 overall seed, takes on Florida, who held that honor last year in the first SEC Tournament quarterfinal in Nashville.

The mid-afternoon window opens with Purdue looking to avoid a bad loss to Penn State in Chicago (2:30 p.m., ESPN) and a crucial game for Temple, one of the last four teams in, against Memphis in Hartford (2:30 p.m., ESPN2). In the Atlantic 10, a crosstown rivalry heads north, as Richmond, suddenly in decent bubble position, will look to defeat VCU for the third straight time (2:30 p.m., NBCSN). In the second game of the day in the Music City, LSU will not get the chance to avenge a season sweep at the hands of Texas A&M. Instead, the Bayou Bengals face a rubber match with upset-minded Auburn (3:30 p.m, SEC Network).

Friday night features a busy slate of semifinal and quarterfinal action. In Chicago, Indiana can virtually guarantee themselves safety with a victory over Big Ten No. 2 seed Maryland (6:30 p.m., BTN). The first ACC Tournament semifinal between Virginia and North Carolina (7 p.m., ESPN/ACC Network) could go a long way to determining the placement of both in the bracket. The Cavaliers might need to win the ACC double to claim the No. 1 spot in the East Region, while the Tar Heels are still in the hunt for a spot on the top four lines. Villanova, a possible contender for that position Virginia covets, takes on Providence in the first of the Big East Tournament's semifinals at Madison Square Garden (7 p.m., FS1).

At the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, Kansas and Baylor meet in the first semifinal (7 p.m., ESPN2), with both squads looking to be in good position for a protected seed. Arkansas, who would like to sneak into the group of 16 teams awarded one of these slots, takes on Tennessee in the evening opener in Nashville (7 p.m., SEC Network). The American's No. 2 seed, Tulsa, can only dream of such positioning. The Golden Hurricane's quarterfinal against Houston (7 p.m, ESPNU) might determine whether they slip into the field or fall to the NIT. Meanwhile, Dayton, falling somewhere in the middle of the bracket, will take on St. Bonaventure in Brooklyn (7 p.m., NBCSN).

As the evening winds down on the East Coast, Duke, yet another contender for that top spot in the East, takes on Notre Dame (9:30 p.m., ESPN/ACC Network), and you can bet the Irish want this to go a bit more like the pair's meeting in South Bend, rather than the one in Durham. The Big 12's nightcap features Iowa State and Oklahoma (9:30 p.m., ESPN2), a pair of teams currently on line three.

Rhode Island, the Atlantic 10's third seed, are a team to watch, especially for the nervous fans of bubble teams. The Rams take on George Washington in that conference's final quarterfinal (9:30 p.m., NBCSN). Another team the skittish will need to pay attention to is Connecticut, playing the American Tournament in Hartford. The defending national champs, a potential surprise bid earner, take on Cincinnati to close the night there (9:30 p.m., ESPNU). Out West, Wyoming could be a team that fills a similar role, especially as Larry Nance, Jr. looks healthy after missing time recently with a case of mono. The Cowboys take on Mountain West Tournament top seed Boise State, a team that's moved to safety, in the first semifinal in Las Vegas (9 p.m., CBSSN). If that wasn't enough, UCLA is yet another club that could sneak in, and a semifinal win over Pac-12 Tournament top seed Arizona (9 p.m., Pac-12 Networks) might both secure a fourth bid for the conference, and torpedo the Wildcats' already slim hopes for a national No. 1 seed.

Georgia, the SEC's third seed, takes on a South Carolina squad that damaged the chances of Ole Miss last night (9:30 p.m., SEC Network). Making matters more tricky for the Bulldogs, the Gamecocks swept them during the regular season. Seeding is the worry for Georgetown and Xavier, who will meet for a place in the Big East final (9:30 p.m., FS1). The same goes for Michigan State and Ohio State, a pair of mid-bracket teams who will close Big Ten play for the night (9 p.m., BTN).

Friday night closes with a pair of Western games of interest. San Diego State takes on Colorado State (11:30 p.m., CBSSN) to claim the final place in the Mountain West final. A win would certainly cement the Rams' place. Across Las Vegas, Oregon faces Utah, a contender for a No. 3 or 4 seed, in the second Pac-12 semifinal (11:30 p.m., ESPN).