Bracketology: Beware the Ides of March

On Saturday night at 6 p.m. ET (CBS), the Wyoming Cowboys, winners over top-seeded Boise State in the first semifinal in Las Vegas Friday night, will take on the winner of Friday's nightcap between San Diego State and Colorado State. With the Aztecs, Broncos, and Rams being safe (though BSU may sweat things a bit after losing in overtime tonight), a Cowboy win would lead to a fourth Mountain West bid and an unhappy bubble team on Sunday night.

On the other hand, the drama American Athletic Conferences will extend all the way into Sunday, while things might not get far in the Atlantic 10. In the second of Saturday's semifinals in Brooklyn, bubble teams need to hope thatNo. 2 Dayton topples No. 3 Rhode Island, as the Flyers and opening game participants Davidson and VCU look safe. Back in Hartford, the winner of the second semi between Tulsa and host Connecticut will certainly be playing the next day, ready to pop the bubble of some unsuspecting team. Plus, Temple -- which takes on SMU in Saturday's first semifinal -- is on the bubble itself, complicating matters. In Friday's action, Tulsa took care of a Houston team that it had to defeat (as a loss to a team outside of the RPI Top 200 would have been curtains), while UConn stunned Cincinnati with a Ryan Boatright three at the buzzer.

In the evening's other bubble action, Indiana played Maryland close before falling, 75-69. The Hoosiers will have to worry a bit over the weekend, but they should be good to go for at worst a First Four game on Tuesday or Wednesday. On the flip side, UCLA is virtually out, as it could not hold on against Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals, dropping a 70-64 decision. Meanwhile, Georgia finally managed to beat South Carolina, avoiding a potentially awful late loss, setting up a nice quality win opportunity against Arkansas in Saturday's semifinals.

Avoiding Dayton: Georgia, BYU, Colorado State, Indiana
Even with a loss Friday night, the Hoosiers remain where they were before tipping off against Maryland.

Last Four IN: Temple, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas
I have to imagine fans of all four of these teams were cheering hard for Arizona Friday night. If they look above, they'll have a rooting guide for the next two days.

First Four OUT: Tulsa, UCLA, Miami, Richmond
The only team in this group that controls its own fate is the Golden Hurricane, but they likely need the American auto bid to qualify.

Next Four OUT: Rhode Island, Illinois, Texas A&M, Stanford
Iona, Louisiana Tech, Murray State, and Old Dominion could also be on this list, but only Rhode Island has any hope of winning its way in.

My next update will come with the Saturday morning bracket, which will feature some changes on the top line, following an interesting night at the ACC Tournament in Greensboro.