Bracketology: The NCAA Tournament is waiting on UConn

Bubble teams and their fans will be glued to their television this afternoon, as the Connecticut Huskies, fresh off eliminating Tulsa Golden Hurricanes from the NCAA picture, take aim at the American Athletic Conference's automatic bid. To claim it -- a result that would end some marginal at-large team's hopes -- all UConn has to do is repeat its March 1st home win over the top-seeded SMU Mustangs (3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Avoiding Dayton: Davidson, Boise State, Indiana, BYU

Temple (23-10; 13-5 AAC; RPI rank: 34; SOS rank: 67; non-conf. SOS rank: 28)
The Owls are best known for the 77-52 beatdown they administered to Kansas on December 22 in Philadelphia, a victory that is one of a pair the team owns over an RPI top 50 opponent, the other coming against Cincinnati, also at the Liacouras Center. However, Temple also dropped seven games to the top 50, en-route to building an 8-8 record against the top 100. A 9-8 record away from home bolsters Temple's case slightly, as do its computer numbers, particularly the RPI ranking of 34th, which usually would guarantee selection. However, a pair of losses to teams outside of the top 100 -- to UNLV in Brooklyn and at Saint Joseph's -- might give the Committee pause, though the Owls' roster was not complete early in the season (transfers Jesse Morgan and Devin Coleman were still ineligible) when both defeats happened. While Temple has been a better team with a full complement of players, they just might not have enough quality wins to get in.

LSU (22-10; 11-7 SEC; RPI rank: 55; SOS rank: 89; non-conf. SOS rank: 209)
The Bayou Bengals looked to be all set for a No. 9 or No. 10 seed, then Friday's collapse against Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals happened. That event just might give the Selection Committee reason to leave Johnny Jones' squad out. To its credit, LSU has won at Arkansas and West Virginia, two of the most difficult places to play in the entire country. Those results help push the team's record against the top 50 to a respectable 3-2. A 13-5 record against the top 100 is also impressive, even if you include a sweep at the hands of Texas A&M. After that, things get dicey, as the Tigers have five losses to teams from outside of the top 100, with a pair to teams sitting outside the top 200, SEC rivals Mississippi State and Missouri. This mix of good and bad makes me think that the purple and gold are a perfect team for Dayton, much like 2011 USC, who had a similar odd profile, though many of those Trojans' bad losses happened early, while LSU's have been concentrated during league play. Note that the Tigers' non-conference strength of schedule ranks 209th, which isn't great. If they're left out, that could be a reason why.

Ole Miss (20-12; 11-7 SEC; RPI rank: 58; SOS rank: 55; non-conf. SOS rank: 110)
Like their rivals, the Rebels looked all set, until they gave a game away to South Carolina in the SEC second round on Thursday night. Working in Ole Miss' favor are wins at Arkansas and surging Oregon, along with a nice non-conference, neutral-site win over Cincinnati. Those boost Mississippi's top 50 record to 3-5 and top 100 record to 9-9. On the other hand, being swept by LSU doesn't help, neither do losses to a trio of teams from outside of the top 100 -- Western Kentucky, TCU, and worst of all Charleston Southern, even if that one happened on opening night on a tip-in at the end of overtime. Thinking more about it, the season's bookends might very well send Andy Kennedy's team to the NIT.

Texas (20-13; 8-10 Big 12; RPI rank:43; SOS rank: 15; non-conf. SOS rank: 84)
The Longhorns own an unfathomable record of 3-12 against the RPI top 50, thanks to the strength of the Big 12. In fact, of their 13 losses, the worst came against Stanford, who currently ranks 52nd in the metric. Add those two sentences together, and factor in five wins against the second 50, and Texas has an 8-13 record against the top 100 and no bad losses. At all. Still, I'm not sure such an odd combination will be enough, especially with a potential surprise auto bid winner, a UConn team the 'Horns stunned, lurking.

Georgia (21-11; 11-7 SEC: RPI rank: 39; SOS rank: 40; non-conf. SOS rank: 78)
On Saturday, the Bulldogs lost the last chance they had to grab a win over a Top 50 opponent, failing to make much of an impression for the first 30 minutes against Arkansas, before a late rally fell far short. While the Bulldogs are a power conference team in the RPI top 40, which would normally guarantee a bid, and are 11-9 against the RPI top 100, that record comes with two huge asterisks. The first is an 0-5 mark against the top 50, the second is the late addition of Vanderbilt to the group, which gives the Dawgs two more wins in that class. The reality is that Georgia owns just two actual quality wins, a sweep of fellow bubble team Ole Miss. In fact, a whopping seven of the Dawgs' top 100 wins came against teams ranked between 83rd (Alabama) and 100th (Vandy). Plus, Georgia owns several disappointing losses, including a 1-2 mark against South Carolina, a split with Auburn, and a loss at Georgia Tech on opening night. That's a combination of results that begs to be left out at this point.

Miami (22-12; 10-8 ACC; RPI rank: 59; SOS rank: 72; non-conf. SOS rank: 176)
This is the most bizarre profile this side of LSU's. The Hurricanes are 2-7 against the top 50 and 6-8 against the top 100, with an impressive win at Duke leading the way. If we stopped right there, the Canes would be OK. However, we cannot. Moving to games played against teams from outside the top 100, we see that Miami dropped four of these, with a 28-point beating administered by Eastern Kentucky in Coral Gables the worst of the lot. Plus, Green Bay won at BankUnited Center just 13 days before the Colonels had their way with Jim Larranaga's team. While the Phoenix are 65th in the RPI table, that loss is still not a good look. Those two defeats, combined with a loss to Georgia Tech at home, torpedoed the Hurricanes' RPI. If they win those three home games alone, they are in far better shape, and probably in the field at the expense of Texas. But they did not.

UCLA (20-13; 11-7 Pac-12; RPI rank: 48; SOS rank: 34; non-conf. SOS rank: 41)
Considering how the Bruins looked early in the season (Remember how Kentucky manhandled them in Chicago in December?), it's somewhat miraculous that they're on this list right now. Blowing a lead to Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals on Friday night hurts, as a win over the Wildcats would have boosted UCLA's top 50 record to 3-7. As it stands now, marks of 2-8 against the top 50 and 5-11 against the top 100 are comparable to Texas, but the Bruins also own a pair of losses to teams from outside the top 100, results the Longhorns steered clear from. Making matters worse for the Sons of Westwood, is their 4-12 record away from Pauley Pavilion. That stat alone might cause the Committee to move on. Next game: None

Tulsa (22-9; 14-4 AAC; RPI rank: 46; SOS rank: 95; non-conf. SOS rank: 129)
If you look at the Golden Hurricane's record in most places, you'll see it listed as 22-10. So, why is there a discrepancy here? Well, back on Wednesday, December 10, Frank Haith's new charges lost to Division II Southeastern Oklahoma State, at home. Since I'm not in charge of things, losses to teams from outside of Division I don't automatically disqualify you from consideration, so here we are, examining Tulsa's profile. A 5-8 record against the top 100 looks passable, but only two of those wins -- a sweep of fellow bubble team Temple -- came against top 50 opposition. In November and December, the Golden Hurricane did itself no favors, as its best non-conference victims were Auburn and Creighton (they lost at Wichita State by 20 in November), and they lost at crosstown rivals Oral Roberts (RPI rank: 162). It's not the best profile, and it's not the worst. It's just a whole lot of meh. That's a problem since Tulsa no longer controls its own fate.

Next Four Out: Illinois, Richmond, Old Dominion, Texas A&M