NCAA bracket predictions 2015: The one where Kentucky loses

I’ve had one perfect, non-chalk Final Four ever*. My senior year in college -- do we still call it our fourth year if we stuck around for a victory lap? -- I correctly chose one-seeded Florida and Ohio State to join two-seeds Georgetown and UCLA to comprise the last four teams standing. I even had the final matchup right and Florida correctly cutting down the nets.

The problem: I was an Ohio State undergrad. I won a lot of campus area bracket contest beer money, but didn’t make a lot of friends in the process.

This year, I’m attempting to recreate the magic that’s been just beyond my grasp ever since. Kentucky aside (let’s not kids ourselves here), can I manage to stumble my way into a similar outcome?

My methodology is pretty simple. Watch copious amounts of college basketball throughout the regular season, cram as much as possible during conference championship week(s), make entirely gut instinct picks, ... , profit.

Last year for the first time ever, however, I began defaulting to KenPom’s infinite wisdom for teams/games I didn’t feel quite as strongly about. The net result? As awful of a bracket as ever. But that’s not going to stop me from foolishly trusting math once again.

Worth noting: I always pick the First Four, too. If we’re going to do those teams the disservice of acting like play-in games are the same as the other 63 games, we might as well have to pick them, too.

To get things started this year, I went to KenPom’s FanMatch predictions and used that info coupled with my own preexisting “knowledge” of each team and made a pick accordingly. Sometimes I agreed with our future computer overlords, sometimes I simply went with my brain (lol).

So let’s take this region by region and talk about how dumb my picks are, shall we?

Can anyone slow down Kentucky?

Short answer, no. Longer answer ... still no.

As much as I enjoy the narrative of former Kentucky ballboy turned later-in-life degree earner Steve Masiello going up against his former side, the Miracle on Ice would be put to shame if Manhattan managed to even play Kentucky within 10 until the final five minutes (sorry, Hampton). And while Cincinnati plays a physical, classic Midwest basketball style, it won’t fare much better.

As a native Austinite (though I don’t root for the Longhorns, in full disclosure, I have a lot of family that does), I should know better than to trust Rick Barnes in March. And yet, I think they’re the more talented team than Butler to the degree that it won’t matter -- at least for a game.

Notre Dame is another team I should know better than to trust, but you don’t win the ACC the way the Fighting Irish did by accident. I won’t begrudge anyone who wants to choose them to meet Kentucky in Cleveland.

Wichita State is a shell of its former self and could lose in the first round to Tom Crean’s hyper streaky/lucky to be in the field Indiana Hoosiers, but I’m defaulting to new age hoops astrology here in thinking the Shockers deserve another deep run after the bad karma they had a year ago. And what would be better than a rematch against Kentucky with the shoe on the other foot this time?

Kansas looks exactly like the team that lost to Ali Farokhmanesh. And if you thought Ohio State losing to Dayton was bad, wait until the Jayhawks have the pressure of trying to beat the team they’ve spent the last half-decade trying to dodge in Wichita State.

Wisconsin is really great and might be the only team that can legitimately give Kentucky headaches -- and that’s precisely why the Badgers will do the opposite of what they did last year and duck out around the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight range.

Oregon/Oklahoma State has the makings of one of the ugliest but coin-flippingest games in the entire draw and the Badgers should advance fairly unscathed until they run into a tough test in North Carolina.

Wofford over Arkansas seems a bit too obvious, so I’m going with reverse psychology and Mike Anderson’s bunch. The Tar Heels don’t start their march in North Carolina, though, so Tommy Amaker could pull out some Duke Blue Devil black magic and ruin everything there as well.

BYU/Ole Miss is one of the most intriguing matchups in the entire field (somehow), but I’m going with BYU to sneak past Xavier after doing the same to the Rebels in Dayton. The Cougars’ march-through-Ohio ends against Baylor, which seems a bit enigmatic in its own right but has the talent to play with just about anyone in this bracket.

And then come the Buckeyes. Nothing would be more poetic for a senior class that’s been cursed at and buried by its own fan base for the better part of three months (two and a half if we’re being generous; Ohio State basketball fans don’t check in with their hot takes until at least a week or two after football season proper is over) than an improbable run.

VCU is actually a pretty decent matchup for the Buckeyes, but I’m hard pressed to keep going for a team that’ll be without Temple transfer Anthony Lee, and D’Angelo Russell appears to be dealing with something publicly undisclosed physically.

The Rams then run into this bracket’s buzzsaw in Arizona, which I have finishing what it started last year and getting revenge over Wisconsin in the nearby-ish confines of Los Angeles.

I should know better than picking Villanova, but having seen them play on Fox Sports 1 n>3 times this year has me thinking this is Jay Wright’s best shot.

Though their tourney lives may depend on their ability to consistently shoot from distance -- which history tells us is a dangerous game to play -- you don’t do what the Wildcats did in the regular season by accident.

LSU/NC State (coin toss game) would both be sacrificial lambs in VU’s road to old Big East foe Syracuse’s stomping grounds.

Northern Iowa/Wyoming is a trendy 5/12 upset pick, but I went with the favorites. And that’s when the fun gets going.

Louisville is one of those teams that the more you see of them, the more vulnerable they look. It shouldn’t hurt them against UC Irvine, but if the Cardinals’ offense is any less than its usual outstanding mediocrity at any stage, they’ll go down.

Northern Iowa did the damn thing in 2010 before running into always-tough-in-March Tom Izzo, and the Panthers will do it again if they can outlast the Cowboys in their opener.

Dayton has a favorable road out of the First Four at home in Boise, but then runs into a Providence team that could cause problems. Either should be no match for Oklahoma, which might just have a real shot to beat Virginia if the Cavaliers are not able to recreate the magic from earlier this season.

And speaking of Izzo, this was my toughest pick in maybe the entire bracket this year -- or at least the one I’m least sure about. Michigan State will have to bounce back from a game it very much should’ve won in the Big Ten title bout against Wisconsin. Though Georgia is banged up, MSU will be fighting against the deflating feeling of what happened in overtime against the Badgers. If they can’t shake it off (and Georgia is healthy enough), the Spartans will go down in what could be a very tough postseason overall for the B1G.

UVA, meanwhile, shouldn’t be too tested, unless Sparty is right between the ears. That could be the Cavaliers’ departure, and either way, it seems like if they’re not 100 percent in their own right, they’re on borrowed time. In what will almost assuredly be famous last words, I have them sneaking their way to the Elite Eight, before falling to sharpshooting Villanova in the run we’ve been expecting from Jay Wright’s side since 2009.

SB Nation presents: Why Villanova could win the NCAA Tournament

I hate this region. This is the best Duke team in years, and for whatever reason, I can’t trust the Blue Devils. I wouldn’t be shocked if San Diego State beat them or on the flip side, if they went all the way to the Final Four. But for reasons unknown (I blame KenPom’s math), I’m going with Utah being the Cinderella (of sorts) in this pool. /Fully expects Utah to lose to Stephen F. Austin now

Georgetown seems overdue for a sustained run in its own right, but if it gets past potential giant killer Eastern Washington, Utah should match up pretty decently.

My UCLA over SMU pick isn’t a logical one (I watched the Kentucky game), but it seems those teams that shouldn’t have been in the tournament in the first place seem to justify their inclusion more often than not. Maybe some sort of perverse priming bias, but I’ll ride that for them, at least until they meet probably the team I feel best about in this field, Iowa State.

Davidson could beat Gonzaga and though I have the Zags getting to Houston, I’m in a big time “once bitten, twice shy” sort of scenario with them after past bracket heartbreak. Maybe this is their year? Seems like we say that every season.

With Utah somehow matching up with Iowa State in a game you probably wouldn’t have watched in the regular season if you weren’t a college hoops devotee, I’ve got the Cyclones repeating their Big 12 tourney magic and making it to Indianapolis.

SB Nation presents: Fred Hoiberg explains ISU’s tourney gameplan

There is no logical basketball reason to not pick Kentucky to cut down the nets -- so of course I didn’t.

Iowa State feels better in my head, but maybe it’s the 1985 magic repeating. If it’s not a team like Arizona or Iowa State who can bang a bit with Kentucky, it has to be some sharpshooting team that’s just dialed in.

In easily the most regrettable, criticism-worthy move since that time I picked a Rick Barnes-coached team to make the Elite Eight a year or two ago, I’m going with the Villanova Wildcats to beat the 39-0 Kentucky Wildcats.

It’s really hard to go undefeated, especially with a bunch of 18-20-year-olds, no matter how talented.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got some red pens to stock up on.

* = 2008 was stupid and none of us can brag about it.