NCAA bracket predictions 2015: Northern Iowa to the Final Four
Now that Selection Sunday is gone for another year, it’s time for our resident bracketologist to pick each and every game of the NCAA Tournament, even the First Four. It’s an exercise that’s been an adventure in recent seasons.
The 2014 NCAA Tournament was not a great one if you somehow decided to base your picks on my set, as I racked up an unimpressive 38-25 record, picking just one Final Four team correctly -- my championship selection Florida (disclosure: my alma mater). That was one game worse than my 39-24 record in 2013, and well below my 44-19 mark from 2012. But, I'm back yet again, fully expecting to improve upon my performance over the past couple of seasons.
Realtime Bracket Game
This season, you need to be strategic in making your picks, since the majority of entrants in any contest or pool will undoubtedly have the No. 1 overall seed, Kentucky. Therefore, to win, you'll need to make the right choices in the other 62 games to edge your competition.
So, without further delay, I’ll get started with my picks and pithy comments at the upper left section of the bracket, with the Midwest, and go clockwise toward the West. My Final Four picks will follow.
Midwest
First Four
No. 16 Manhattan over No. 16 Hampton
Taking a Jasper team that knocked a talented Iona squad out of the field over the lowest-ranked team in the tournament is a no-brainer.
Round of 64
No. 1 Kentucky over No. 16 Manhattan
Steve Masiello’s squad won’t be able to do much against his alma mater.
No. 8 Cincinnati over No. 9 Purdue
The struggle will likely be real in this one. The Bearcats should be able to get enough stops to hold off the Boilermakers in a low-scoring affair.
No. 5 West Virginia over No. 12 Buffalo
The Bulls would have been a near-automatic upset pick against any other five seed, but the Mountaineers’ unique style, particularly on defense, might be the difference here.
No. 4 Maryland over No. 13 Valparaiso
While the Terrapins are underseeded by a line, that doesn’t mean they’ll have a cakewalk against the Crusaders. Expect late-game drama and a Maryland win.
No. 11 Texas over No. 6 Butler
This is precisely the matchup the Bulldogs didn’t want, as the Longhorns’ superior talent might very well overwhelm them.
No. 3 Notre Dame over No. 14 Northeastern
The journey of a long NCAA run for the Fighting Irish can only begin with a Round of 64 victory over a Huskies team that won’t be able to outscore the Irish.
No. 7 Wichita State over No. 10 Indiana
The Hoosiers haven’t defeated an NCAA-level opponent since toppling Maryland on Jan. 22. That won’t change on Friday.
No. 2 Kansas over No. 15 New Mexico State
The Jayhawks’ personnel issues shouldn’t matter in their opener.
Round of 32
No. 1 Kentucky over No. 8 Cincinnati
This one may not be much fun for the Bearcats. Viewers better hope there’s another TV option for the second half.
No. 5 West Virginia over No. 4 Maryland
At some point, the Terps’ luck will run out. Having to face the Mountaineers with little time to prepare seems to be a good guess as to when that happens.
No. 3 Notre Dame over No. 11 Texas
Circle this one’s Saturday tip time if it happens because it should be one of the more entertaining games in the Round of 32. Look for the Irish to force just enough Longhorn turnovers and hit a few threes en-route to a close win.
No. 7 Wichita State over No. 2 Kansas
This is the second season in a row I’ve taken the Jayhawks’ opposition at this stage to advance. The Shockers should be able to repeat Stanford’s 2014 feat (though I took New Mexico) thanks to their defense, particularly with KU not at full strength. Plus, Gregg Marshall’s team will be a bit motivated.
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Sweet 16
No. 1 Kentucky over No. 5 West Virginia
Expect points to be at a premium in this one, and for the Wildcats to grab several more than the Mountaineers, especially after they find their extra gear in the last 10 minutes.
No. 7 Wichita State over No. 3 Notre Dame
While the Fighting Irish will hit plenty of threes, I think the Shockers keep it close and lock them down when it really matters.
Elite Eight
No. 1 Kentucky over No. 7 Wichita State
It would be something if the Shockers could ruin the Wildcats’ perfect season one season after UK dispatched them in the Round of 32, but I don’t see a happy ending for them here.
East
First Four
No. 11 Dayton over No. 11 Boise State
The Flyers take advantage of their unexpected free home game.
Round of 64
No. 1 Villanova over No. 16 Lafayette
The Wildcats have a habit of playing close Round of 64 games, so this will be one on Thursday that has us all thinking this could finally be the day the 16 seed wins. Then, with five minutes left, Nova will leave the Leopards in the dust.
No. 9 LSU over No. 8 N. State
For a time, it appeared that this would be an ideal First Four matchup, but the selection committee put these teams in the middle of the bracket instead. I’m picking the Bayou Bengals simply because they are due to win one after giving their SEC quarterfinal away on Friday. This really is a coin-flip game.
No. 5 Northern Iowa over No. 12 Wyoming
Be sure to watch this one so you can see Larry Nance Jr. in the tournament, and the Panthers before they become the talk of March.
No. 13 UC Irvine over No. 4 Louisville
Mamadou Ndiaye and the Anteaters stun the Cardinals, who struggle to score after being shipped out to Seattle.
No. 6 Providence over No. 11 Dayton
Kris Dunn and the Friars should be able to get past a shorthanded Dayton squad that will be playing its fifth game in the span of a week.
No. 3 Oklahoma over No. 14 Albany
Look for the Sooners to put the clamps down on the Great Danes early.
No. 7 Michigan State over No. 10 Georgia
That overtime in Chicago aside, the Spartans are -- wait for it -- rounding into form at the right time. That’s not good for the Bulldogs.
No. 2 Virginia over No. 15 Belmont
If the Cavaliers hit a dry spell in the second half, watch out, but I still think they prevail.
Round of 32
No. 1 Villanova over No. 9 LSU
If the Tigers had more than one Keith Hornsby on the roster, this would be closer. Expect Nova to just launch threes all day/evening on Saturday.
No. 5 Northern Iowa over No. 13 UC Irvine
In a defensive struggle, the Panthers’ offensive efficiency results in a few more baskets and stops.
No. 3 Oklahoma over No. 6 Providence
If the Friars can hit some threes, this is a different story, but that’s an iffy proposition.
No. 2 Virginia over No. 7 Michigan State
Expect this to be a national game on Sunday, with not a lot of points, and for the Cavaliers to do just enough to get by the Spartans.
Sweet 16
No. 5 Northern Iowa over No. 1 Villanova
Two very similar teams meet for a place in the Elite Eight. Expect a lot of shots from the perimeter and a lot of stops, and for Seth Tuttle, the best player on the court, to be the difference.
No. 3 Oklahoma over No. 2 Virginia
Points will be at a premium in Syracuse. All four participants are renowned for their defense, and that may be the truest for this game, which would pit KenPom’s first and fifth-ranked teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. Curiously, I have more faith in the Sooners getting more points in this matchup.
Elite Eight
No. 5 Northern Iowa over No. 3 Oklahoma
The Sooners’ season record against teams from Iowa falls to 1-3 as the Panthers hit enough threes to move on to Indianapolis.
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South
First Four
No. 16 North Florida over No. 16 Robert Morris
The Ospreys, who have a good argument for a higher seeding, should take their frustration out on the Colonials.
Round of 64
No. 1 Duke over No. 16 North Florida
Unleashing a barrage of threes won’t be enough for UNF against the Blue Devils.
No. 8 San Diego State over No. 9 St. John’s
With Chris Obekpa suspended and the Red Storm on the downswing, this is an easy pick.
No. 12 Stephen F. Austin over No. 5 Utah
The Utes, 3-4 in their last seven, will be overrun by a Lumberjack team aiming to pull a second consecutive 12 over 5 shock.
No. 13 Eastern Washington over No. 4 Georgetown
Tyler Harvey plus an overseeded Hoya team traveling cross-country equals the biggest shock of the first two days.
No. 6 SMU over No. 11 UCLA
Normally, I pick a team that I failed to include in my final projection to advance. It won’t be the Bruins, though, in a matchup of teams that have something to prove.
No. 3 Iowa State over No. 14 UAB
The most dangerous team on this side of the bracket takes out a Blazer team that’s a surprise entrant out of C-USA.
No. 7 Iowa over No. 10 Davidson
Expect this to be one of the most exciting games of the Round of 64, and for the Hawkeyes to get a few more shots from the foul line to prevail in a close one.
No. 2 Gonzaga over No. 15 North Dakota State
This is not last year’s Bison taking on the Bulldogs in Seattle, and that will become apparent early on.
Round of 32
No. 1 Duke over No. 8 San Diego State
Given the Aztecs’ offensive woes, this one could be a rough one to watch.
No. 12 Stephen F. Austin over No. 13 Eastern Washington
Look for the Lumberjacks to take advantage of the Eagles’ lackluster defense and move on to a quasi-home regional in Houston.
No. 3 Iowa State over No. 6 SMU
The Cyclones’ backcourt ends up trumping the Mustangs’ frontcourt in an entertaining Saturday affair.
No. 2 Gonzaga over No. 7 Iowa
The Hawkeyes will push the Bulldogs, but fall short late in Seattle.
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Sweet 16
No. 1 Duke over No. 12 Stephen F. Austin
The Blue Devils win handily despite playing a virtual road game. The Lumberjacks’ lack of size means they won’t be able to stop Jahlil Okafor.
No. 3 Iowa State over No. 2 Gonzaga
This game will more than make up for the blowout that the other projected South regional semifinal is likely to be. Both teams are used to being pushed, but the Cyclones’ ability to keep the Bulldogs from the charity stripe in crunch time pushes them through in a squeaker.
Elite Eight
No. 3 Iowa State over No. 1 Duke
Fred Hoiberg’s team wins an instant classic to move on to an in-state national semifinal in Indianapolis, with free throw frequency again the difference late.
West
First Four
No. 11 BYU over No. 11 Ole Miss
The Cougars continue their strong finish, pushing past the inconsistent Rebels in Tuesday’s nightcap.
Round of 64
No. 1 Wisconsin over No. 16 Coastal Carolina
Last year, the Chanticleers (a nickname I’m sure you’re Googling right now, if you haven’t already) gave Virginia fits in their 1 vs. 16 matchup. I don’t expect the same this season against the dominant Badgers.
No. 8 Oregon over No. 9 Oklahoma State
Pac-12 final blowout aside, the Ducks are simply playing far better than the Cowboys in this rematch of a 2013 No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup, also won by Oregon.
No. 12 Wofford over No. 5 Arkansas
In 2010 in Jacksonville, the Terriers lost by four to Wisconsin in a 4 vs. 13 matchup. Five years later, they’ll finish the job against the Razorbacks.
No. 4 North Carolina over No. 13 Harvard
Make all of the academics jokes you want, the Tar Heels look likely to have the last laugh against a Crimson team that’s not as strong as the last two editions.
No. 11 BYU over No. 6 Xavier
Thanks to some rest after the WCC Tournament, the rapid turnaround from Dayton doesn't affect the Cougars as much as you'd expect. They speed the Musketeers up enough to advance again.
No. 3 Baylor over No. 14 Georgia State
Ryan Harrow, R.J. Hunter and Kevin Ware make this one entertaining, but Kenny Chery, Taurean Prince, Rico Gathers and the rest of a deep Bears squad overwhelm GSU late.
No. 7 VCU over No. 10 Ohio State
D'Angelo Russell will get the crowd in Portland oohing and aahing, but the Rams, who finally seem to be getting life without Briante Weber figured out, advance.
No. 2 Arizona over No. 15 Texas Southern
While the Tigers are worthy 15 seeds, thanks to thrilling wins at Michigan State and Kansas State, they won’t be able to compete with Arizona.
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Round of 32
No. 1 Wisconsin over No. 8 Oregon
Last season, these two met at the same stage with the Badgers winning by eight in Milwaukee. Expect the same victor by a bigger margin this time around.
No. 4 North Carolina over No. 12 Wofford
The Terriers, having expended a lot of energy in defeating Arkansas, run out of gas against the Tar Heels.
No. 11 BYU over No. 3 Baylor
Dave Rose outcoaches Scott Drew in a game that ends up being one of the weekend’s most entertaining.
No. 2 Arizona over No. 7 VCU
The more talented Wildcats win a matchup of two teams with a similar ethos.
Sweet 16
No. 1 Wisconsin over No. 4 North Carolina
While the Tar Heels will attempt to speed the Badgers up, Bo Ryan’s team will frustrate those efforts, as they advance in efficient fashion.
No. 2 Arizona over No. 11 BYU
Similarly, the Wildcats’ defense shuts down the Cougars’ offense to advance.
Elite Eight
No. 2 Arizona over No. 1 Wisconsin
For the second season in a row, these two meet with a spot in the Final Four on the line. This time, the Wildcats have a healthy Brandon Ashley in the lineup, and he might just make the difference. We can only hope this one matches the intensity of the pair's 2014 meeting.
Final Four
National Semifinals
Midwest No. 1 Kentucky over West No. 2 Arizona
While the Wildcats push the, um, Wildcats in the game many hoped would be the final, UK’s talent and depth are too much for an entertaining, experienced Arizona squad.
South No. 3 Iowa State over East No. 5 Northern Iowa
The Cyclones prevent the Panthers from claiming the unofficial state title for their chance to take on Goliath.
National Championship
Midwest No. 1 Kentucky over South No. 3 Iowa State
Fred Hoiberg’s Cyclones are capable of pushing the Wildcats to the brink, but like so many times before, John Calipari’s Cats will have just enough at the end. Now, if Hilton Magic were involved ...
These picks aside, expect the impossible over the next three weekends. While Kentucky looks like an impossible team to defeat, in this tournament absolutely anything can happen. Enjoy the journey.
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