16 thoughts on the Sweet 16: It’s still Kentucky vs. the world

1. Kentucky might not be seriously challenged until the Final Four

Arkansas is the only ranked team Kentucky has played since downing Louisville in Louisville two days after Christmas. The Wildcats played Arkansas twice -- once on Feb. 28 and again in the SEC title game -- and Kentucky won those two games by a combined 32 points. Arkansas entered those contests at No. 18 and No. 21 in the polls, respectively.

When Kentucky plays West Virginia in the Sweet 16 on Thursday, it’ll be a rare game against a team worthy of a national ranking. West Virginia was No. 20 in the final poll of the season. If West Virginia’s style of play can be compared to anyone it’s ... Arkansas, and we saw how quickly John Calipari’s team was able to get through them.

West Virginia and Arkansas both run blitzing press defenses hell-bent on turning you over in the backcourt to get easy baskets. The biggest difference between the two is in guard play, where Juwan Staten and freshman Jevon Carter give the Mountaineers a solid edge over the Razorbacks. Will that be enough to scare Kentucky?:

It’s certainly possible, especially if the Harrison brothers can’t protect the ball against West Virginia’s pressure. Seeing what Kentucky did to Arkansas, though, it’s tough to expect a serious challenge. With Notre Dame vs. Wichita State on the other side of the region, it stands to reason that Kentucky won’t really be tested until it reaches the Final Four, presumably against the winner of Wisconsin vs. Arizona.

Wichita State and Notre Dame are very good teams, but they simply don’t have the size to matchup. Notre Dame starts a 6’5 power forward in Pat Connaughton; Wichita State starts a 6’4 power forward in Evan Wessel. Good luck against Karl-Anthony Towns, arguably the most talented player in the tournament and a 19-year-old who checks in at 7-foot, 250.

West Virginia will probably keep this game close for 30 or 35 minutes, but Kentucky has enough of a talent edge here that victory isn’t really in question. Kentucky earned the right to have the easiest path to the Final Four, and it looks like that will be the case. Of course, Kentucky proved earlier in the season it only seems to play better against top competition, so maybe none of this matters.

2. Jakob Poeltl is about to get the test of his life

The best individual matchup of the Sweet 16 comes within the best game of the round: Duke freshman center Jahlil Okafor vs. Utah freshman center Jakob Poeltl. Okafor is a lock to be a top-two pick in June’s NBA draft, while Poeltl seemingly came out of nowhere to crash NBA radars during the first few weeks of the season.

Okafor has not seen the type of size Utah can throw at him very often this season. Poeltl is 7-foot, 240 pounds while backup Dallin Bachynski is 7-foot, 265 pounds. NBA scouts and fans of tanking teams are going to be locked in on this matchup, but I’m thinking whatever we see here will tell us more about Poeltl than Okafor.

Okafor’s interior scoring is the safest bet in the NBA Draft. The question marks surrounding Okafor are more focused on if he can defend spread pick-and-polls and be the lone rim protector on a four-out team rather than how he can handle an opposing 7-foot low-post scorer. Okafor’s main objective in this game is going to be staying out of foul trouble and trying to help stop Delon Wright’s drives to the rim. His stock is safe regardless of what happens.

For Poeltl, though, it’s the biggest game of his young career. A big game and he could be a lottery pick in 2015. If he gets torched the way Okafor has been torching everyone else, maybe he would be better served with another year in school.

3. Utah’s supplemental scorers need to get hot to upset Duke

Wright and Poeltl get most of the attention for Utah, but they’re not going to beat Duke by themselves. The reason the Utes have a chance is because this is a team with four or five other players who could conceivably score in double-figures at any given time. Utah needs those guys to make some shots if they’re going to score enough to keep pace with Duke.

Junior guard Brandon Taylor was Utah’s second leading scorer in the regular season at 10.5 points per game on 44 percent three-point shooting. He scored 14 with four three-pointers against Georgetown in the round of 32, and dropping 24 on 6-of-9 shooting from deep against Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Jordan Loveridge is another player to watch. Two years ago, everyone assumed he would become the face of the program. Now he might be the third or fourth option on a really good team that has a legitimate chance to go the Elite Eight. Loveridge, 6’6, 220-pound combo forward, averaged more than 10 points per game and made better than 45 percent of his threes this season.

Reserve guard Dakarai Tucker or freshman forward Brekkott Chapman are candidates to go off, as well. If Utah gets a few of these guys knocking down shots, Duke could be on upset alert.

SB Nation presents: How Duke will continue its run to a national championship

4. Notre Dame vs. Wichita State is going to be entertaining as hell

Both the Irish and the Shockers start four guards and have made it this far by spreading the floor and relying on great outside shooting. It was enough to get Notre Dame the ACC Tournament championship and enough for Wichita State to overcome a much bigger Kansas team in the round of 32.

These two teams both want to play the same way, which is why Thursday’s game should be the type of up-and-down, actually exciting college basketball game critics of the sport aren’t accustomed to seeing.

The game within the game will be if Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton can slow down Jerian Grant. Grant was one of the best guards in the country all season, and it feels like he could be primed for a breakthrough game. Cotton was the MVC Defensive Player of the Year and Baker has NBA aspirations, as well. It should be a great matchup.

On the other side, the intrigue is clear: Can Wichita State flip the script one year later and try to spoil an undefeated Kentucky season? Someone get CleAnthony Early back into a yellow-and-black jersey.

5. Will Kennedy Meeks play for North Carolina?

Roy Williams said Meeks was doubtful on Monday, but then the sophomore big man went through drills on Tuesday. It would be a terrible blow for the Tar Heels to be without their third leading scorer, someone who has the size (6’9, 280 pounds) to give Frank Kaminsky trouble on the block.

UNC has depth in the front court. Williams could start Isaiah Hicks or play small with Justin Jackson at power forward. It’s not going to be the same game if Meeks isn’t playing, though.

6. Matchup to watch: Bronson Koenig vs. Marcus Paige

Paige entered the season as a player presumed to be the best point guard in the country. Koenig started his sophomore season just hoping to be the seventh man in Wisconsin’s rotation. Along the way, Paige’s numbers have slipped a bit and Koenig took full advantage of Treavon Jackson’s injury to become the best guard on the Badgers.

Koenig is bigger, Paige is quicker. Both are capable of getting hot from deep. Paige was sensational in 22 points against Arkansas in the round of 32 to get the Tar Heels this far, while Koenig caught fire in the last two games of the Big Ten Tournament to help Wisconsin claim the title. It’s one of the best guard matchups in the Sweet 16 and a solid subplot within North Carolina-Wisconsin.

7. Matt Stainbrook is here for you to love

Everyone loves Matt Stainbrook, aka The Stain Train, aka Xavier’s senior big man who dropped 20 points in a round of 64 victory over Ole Miss. Really, what’s not to like?

Stainbrook gave up his scholarship to his younger brother at Xavier this season and drives an Uber around campus at night to make some extra money. He was Xavier’s leading scorer this season with a game that looks straight out of the YMCA. He’s worked hard to transform himself into someone who can carry a team to the Sweet 16 after starting off his career at Western Michigan looking like this:

Does he have his own fan page on Twitter complete with a picture of his head on Rushmore? Of course:

Also, he loves puppy pictures:

Xavier is going to have its hands full against Arizona, so let’s take the chance to appreciate The Stain Train while we still can.

8. Is Stanley Johnson ready for a coming out party?

Arizona and Ohio State’s round of 32 game meant a matchup between two of the best freshmen in the country and two sure-fire top 10 NBA draft picks in Johnson and D’Angelo Russell. After torching VCU in the previous round, Russell played his worst game of the season, finishing 3-of-19 for nine points. Johnson wasn’t any better, going 1-of-12 for four points.

A matchup with Xavier should be a game Johnson can take over, if he wants to. At 6’7, 245 pounds, there’s really no one on the Musketeers roster who has the size and quickness to check him. Of course, Arizona is so talented that it really doesn’t need Johnson to dominate. Still, it would be nice to see him have a breakout game and show the rest of the country what type of player he can be at the next level.

9. Hey, UCLA is here

I saw UCLA play in person once this season, and they were on the wrong end of the worst beatdown you’ll ever see for a purported blue blood program. Kentucky was up 24-0 before the Bruins mercifully scored their first points back in December at the United Center. At that point, it seemed like there was no chance UCLA would make the NCAA Tournament, let alone make it to the Sweet 16.

UCLA does have a lottery pick talent in freshman forward Kevon Looney, and another possible NBA player in Normal Powell, but still. Gonzaga could make this game ugly quick.

10. Can Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo do it again?

The East is wide open after No. 1 Villanova and No. 2 Virginia failed to make it out of the round of 32. All four teams left in this region have a chance to go to the Final Four, which is something few would have expected to say about Louisville and Michigan State before the brackets were set.

Louisville’s season was thrown for a loop when guard Chris Jones for kicked off the team for allegedly committing some heinous crimes. Louisville’s offense struggled even with Jones, and without him it seemed like the Cardinals wouldn’t be able to score enough to advance this far in the NCAA Tournament.

For Michigan State, this was supposed to be a transition year. Keith Appling, Gary Harris and Adreian Payne were out, and Matt Costello and Travis Trice were in. The Spartans looked like they were at least one quality big man short for most of the season, yet here they are.

They common thread? Pitino and Izzo are two of the best coaches in the country. An Elite Eight meeting wouldn’t surprise anyone.

11. What does NC State do for an encore?

NC State’s win over Villanova didn’t really look like an upset in real time. The Wolfpack were just bigger and more athletic, with superior playmakers on the perimeter. Mark Gottfried has put together some stellar recruiting classes and added impact transfers over the last few years, but consistency has been his team’s biggest problem. What does that mean for a game against Louisville?

NC State beat Louisville at Louisville in their only meeting this season because they dominated the glass and no one would stop Cat Barber. That was Jones’ last game before a one-game suspension eventually led to his dismissal. The Cardinals got a nice game from freshman guard Quentin Snider in the round of 32, but will they be able to hide him defensively against a strong perimeter attack for the Wolfpack?

Pitino is surely the better X’s and O’s coach in this matchup, and that counts for something. With Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell, the Cardinals won’t be at a disadvantage in terms of athletic size. For now, this game feels like a toss-up.

12. Why is everyone sleeping on Oklahoma?

The Sooners are the highest seeded team left in the East, but they feel like the one team no one is talking about. Lon Kruger’s squad doesn’t have much depth, but it does have a tremendous starting five that plays both sides of the floor and has a legitimate star in off guard Buddy Hield.

Oklahoma finished with the No. 6 adjusted defense in the country this season, per KenPom. All five of the scorers can put the ball in the hoop, with each averaging at least 9.3 points per game. Hield is the alpha dog (17.3 points per game) and if he gets hot from three-point range, Oklahoma should be considered the favorite in this region.

Of course, there’s a reason no one wants to bet against Tom Izzo in March. This might end up being MSU’s second straight game that more closely resembles jiu-jitsu than basketball.

13. Gonzaga is a serious threat to reach the title game

Mark Few has made the tournament 15 straight years -- 15! -- and has never gotten past the Sweet 16. With a matchup against UCLA, it should be money in the bank this time.

The ‘Zags look really good up to this point. They trashed Iowa behind 24 points from Kyle Wiltjer and 18 points off the bench from Domantas Sabonis. The Hawkeyes are a big and physical team, too. But no one does big and physical like Gonzaga this side of Kentucky.

Gonzaga has an offense where all five starters can score. They also have great depth and a ton of size. With a former Kentucky transfer with Wiltjer and the son of a basketball legend in Sabonis, this doesn’t really look like a mid-major -- or hell, even your typical Gonzaga team.

A lot of people are focused on an Arizona-Wisconsin matchup in the Sweet 16, but ...

14. Duke vs. Gonzaga could be the game of the tournament

The 270-pound Okafor vs. the 300-pound Przemek Karnowski. The four-year senior starter Kevin Pangos vs. the freshman upstart Tyus Jones. The advantage Duke gets from Justise Winslow at small forward vs. the advantage Gonzaga gets at power forward with Wiltjer.

I’m worried Utah is going to upset Duke -- I picked it in my bracket -- but I’m almost rooting against it. Duke-Gonzaga would be so good. The people deserve it.

15. Kentucky stays giving the best quotes

16. It’s still Kentucky vs. the field

Arizona, Wisconsin, Duke and Gonzaga would each have a decent chance against Kentucky if they catch the ‘Cats on an off night. If we’re lucky, we’ll get to see Kentucky try to go through two of those teams in Indianapolis. For as frantic as the opening round of the tournament, though, it’s hard to see the season as anything other than Kentucky against the world.

If nothing else, it’s going to be some great drama watching Kentucky gun for history against talented teams at 38-0 and 39-0. We’re set up for a fantastic end to this tournament.