Bracketology: Crunch time beckons for teams on the bubble

With the exception of East No. 2 seed Gonzaga, which plays in the West Coast Conference Tournament quarterfinals on Saturday night, the top eight teams in this field, the same group in place on Tuesday, fit in the former category. Their tests largely fall the category of "classic season-ending rivalry," as, for example, No. 1 overall Kentucky hosts Florida, a shell of the team that claimed that honor one season ago; West top seed Duke makes the short trip down Tobacco Road to face North Carolina; and South anchor Villanova hosts longtime Big East foe St. John's. East No. 1 Virginia's matchup is a definite exception, as the Cavaliers, who will still be without Justin Anderson, thanks to an appendectomy, travel to ACC newcomer Louisville, a team fighting for seeding both in Greensboro and in the NCAAs.

Different challenges entirely await the two No. 2 seeds in best position to move up. Arizona, currently second in the West, will host a Stanford team that's on the wrong side of the bubble and in dire need of a quality win. Ohio State's position is far sturdier than the Cardinal's, but a home win over Midwest No. 2 Wisconsin on Sunday would let the Buckeyes breathe considerably easier.

Once again, I'll start this review by reminding you that 21 of the 68 spots in the bracket will be taken by the champions of conferences that will likely only send one team apiece to the field. Again, keep an eye on Wofford and Iona, who will have an outside shot at an at-large should they fall in the Southern Conference and Metro Atlantic Conference Tournaments, respectively.

Expect the names in this group to change quite a bit over the next week. In fact, Patriot League Tournament top seed Bucknell needed overtime to defeat Holy Cross in that event's quarterfinals just last night.

The biggest change to the group of protected seeds since last Friday is that Wichita State replaces Northern Iowa, following the Shockers' win over the Panthers on Saturday afternoon. The two may very well meet again in the Missouri Valley Tournament final on Sunday afternoon, which might lead to another revision.

Keep an eye on Maryland, who could be in position to leap to the two line should the Terrapins make a decent run through the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago and Kansas exits the Big 12 Tournament early.

The total number of locks now stands at 29, so when you combine that number with the 21 auto bids also off the table, only 18 spots remain in play. This week, Providence, Georgetown, St. John's, Dayton, and Iowa pushed themselves toward safety. VCU, meanwhile, continue to costs itself seeding position, particularly after being blown out at Davidson last night. However, the work the Rams did early in the season cannot be forgotten. While Shaka Smart's team may eventually end up in a position where it has to wear road jerseys in the Round of 64, VCU will still reach one of those matchups.

Cincinnati hosts Memphis on Sunday, but a day earlier, the two SEC teams in this group play opponents they should defeat, while North Carolina State will be the last team Rakeem Christmas and Syracuse challenge in 2014-15.

LSU, picked up its fourth questionable SEC loss of the season on Wednesday night, at home to Tennessee. Dayton may beckon for the Bubble, I mean Bayou Bengals before all is said and done. The same may be said for an Indiana team that last earned a quality win on January 22nd, against Maryland.

On the other hand, Oregon moved closer to safety by surviving a trap game at archrival Oregon State on Wednesday. Davidson, here as the projected Atlantic 10 champ, boosted its case by routing VCU last night, and Boise State, the likely Mountain West top seed, had little trouble at woeful San Jose State in its midweek game. Both of those squads would be in as at-larges in the 11 range at the moment, hence their inclusion in a temporary expanded group.

Texas slips in as the last at-large today, though the Longhorns, whose worst loss came against Stanford, should have done more in 14 games against the Top 50, in which they went 3-11. An RPI ranking of 40 and strength of schedule ranking in the Top 10 would normally make the decision easy for the Selection Committee, but they will debate Rick Barnes's team intensely, I suspect.

Illinois, with wins over Baylor in Las Vegas, Michigan State in East Lansing, and Maryland at home and just one truly bad loss, at Nebraska, has a decent case for the final spot, but an RPI rank north of 60 hurts the Fighting Illini. The other teams Texas edges include Temple, who defeated Kansas and Cincinnati at home, but was swept by Tulsa and SMU and lost to UNLV and Saint Joseph's; Miami owner of one of the best bubble wins possible -- over Duke at Cameron -- along with victories over N.C. State and Illinois in Coral Gables, but a home loser to Eastern Kentucky, Georgia Tech, and Green Bay; and Tulsa, who swept Temple and did little else.

See above. Purdue, the very last team earning direct entry into the Round of 64 in this projection, faces the very first team out, Illinois, on Saturday afternoon in the bubble game of the weekend. Miami travels to an opponent it absolutely must defeat on Saturday, while Temple and Tulsa face trickier tasks as the weekend unfolds.

Pittsburgh did itself no favors by losing to Miami at home on Wednesday night, while Old Dominion has quietly hung around by rattling off five wins in a row in Conference USA. UCLA closed its regular season by trouncing USC, and so must wait until the Pac-12 Tournament to further bolster its case. Stanford, on the other hand, won't need to wait that long, but winning in Tucson probably won't be enough after Thursday's loss at Arizona State.

Yale at Harvard, 8 p.m. (ASN)
The winner takes control of the Ivy League race and can clinch the Ancient Eight's automatic bid by winning Saturday against either Dartmouth (Bulldogs) or Brown (Crimson).

Michigan State at Indiana, 12 p.m. (ESPN)
After two consecutive losses, a home win over the Spartans would do wonders for the Hoosiers' hopes and Tom Crean's job status. Michigan State defeated Indiana by 20 in East Lansing on January 5th.

Pittsburgh at Florida State, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
Since Wednesday night's home loss to Miami seriously dented the Panthers' already slim at-large hopes, a loss in Tallahassee would all but end them.

Butler at Providence, 12 p.m. (FS1)
A win for the Friars would complete a sweep of the Bulldogs and lock up the number two seed at MSG, since Providence also defeated Georgetown, hosting Seton Hall simultaneously (on Fox), twice.

Northwestern at Iowa, 12 p.m. (BTN)
The Hawkeyes have gained some breathing room since dropping a 66-61 overtime decision in Evanston on February 15th, winning five in a row.

Miami at Virginia Tech, 12 p.m. (ACC RSNs/ESPN3)
The worst thing the Hurricanes could possibly do after winning in Pittsburgh is lose in Blacksburg to a team they defeated by 24 at home on February 18th.

St. John's at Villanova, 2 p.m. (FOX)
The Wildcats will attempt to stay in the top seed hunt after an unimpressive win at Creighton on Tuesday, while the Red Storm will aim for a fifth straight win (and eighth in nine) and absolute safety.

LSU at Arkansas, 2 p.m. (ESPN)
It would be the most LSU basketball thing ever for the Tigers to defeat the Hogs, who have already locked up the two seed in Nashville, three days after incomprehensibly losing to Tennessee in Baton Rouge.

Connecticut at Temple, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
The Owls closed 2014 and opened their American campaign with a 57-53 overtime win in Hartford. They'd be strongly advised to complete a sweep on Saturday.

Oklahoma State at West Virginia, 2 p.m. (ESPNEWS)
A Wednesday night win over TCU ended the Cowboys' four-game skid, but Morgantown is an unlikely place to build a winning streak heading to Kansas City next week. WVU defeated the Cowboys by 10 in Stillwater on February 21st.

Xavier at Creighton, 2 p.m. (FSN)
The Bluejays defeated the Musketeers by seven in Cincinnati on February 4th. If they can complete the sweep, they'll doom Xavier to a losing conference record and a bit of bubble worry.

Alabama at Texas A&M, 2 p.m. (SEC on FSN/ESPN3)
With the Aggies barely hanging on, a loss to a mediocre Crimson Tide would be playing with fire.

Saint Joseph's at Rhode Island, 2 p.m. (OSN)
A win over the Hawks would lock up a quarterfinal bye for the Rams, which they'll need if they want to win the Atlantic 10's auto bid, URI's only real path to the field at this point.

Kansas at Oklahoma, 4 p.m. (ESPN)
This one looked to be an immense Big 12 contest, but then the Sooners blew a 20-point lead in Ames on Monday and the Jayhawks miraculously overhauled West Virginia on Tuesday night.

Kansas State at Texas, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
The Longhorns took care of Baylor on Tuesday to stay alive, but a home loss to a tricky Wildcat team would undo that good work.

Dayton at La Salle, 4 p.m. (CBSSN)
The Flyers hit the road in an attempt to lock up a share of the Atlantic 10 regular season crown. Dayton defeated the Explorers by 11 on January 14th.

Georgia at Auburn, 4 p.m. (SEC Network)
The Tigers have won four SEC games this season, but can complete a sweep of the Bulldogs, which would not be a good look for Mark Fox's team, which was also swept by South Carolina.

George Mason at VCU, 5:30 p.m. (NBCSN)
The Rams should be able to beat the Patriots, who are second from the bottom of the Atlantic 10 table, right?

OVC Championship, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Depending on what happens in the Ivy League, this winner could be the first team officially in the field of 68. Murray State, who completed a perfect OVC regular season and won the regular-season crown by five games, is the heavy favorite.

Davidson at Duquesne, 7 p.m. (ASN)
The Wildcats, picked last in the Atlantic 10 in the preseason, can claim at least a share of the conference crown with a win in Pittsburgh.

Sam Houston State at Stephen F. Austin, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
The Lumberjacks can claim the top seed in Katy with a home win over the second-place Bearkats, who fell to SFA by 11 in Huntsville on January 24th.

Fresno State at Boise State, 8 p.m. (ESPN3)
The Broncos will claim the top seed in the Mountain West's festivities in Vegas with a win over the Bulldogs, who happened to defeat Boise by six on Valentine's Day.

Vanderbilt at Ole Miss, 9 p.m. (SEC Network)
Facing the Commodores in Oxford, the Rebels should be able to lock up a quarterfinal bye in Nashville.

Colorado State at Utah State, 9 p.m. (ROOT Sports)
Having been swept by Wyoming, a win in Logan is vital for the Rams' hopes of earning the three seed in the Mountain West Tournament.

Nevada at San Diego State, 10 p.m. (CBSSN)
The Aztecs will be hoping Boise State falls before tipping off at Viejas against the Wolf Pack. That result would be the only way SDSU can claim the top seed in Las Vegas.