In an offseason destined to be loaded with talk of everything that is wrong with college basketball, lack of star power deserves a spot near the head of the complaint table.
NBA Draft declarations, surprise transfers drain ACC teams of star power
The offseason is young, but it has already been especially cruel to the conference that saw the most success in the 2015 NCAA Tournament.
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We aren’t all that far removed from a time when landing a blue chip basketball recruit came hand-in-hand with a three- or four-year pass to watch the young man develop and hopefully put himself in a position to become a pro. As such, program stability was much easier to attain. Land one or two great recruiting classes, be a national title contender for six or seven years. The struggle for success in college hoops had little to do with deciphering the formula.
We are now more than a decade removed from the final vestiges of that era, and firmly entrenched in one where relearning the rosters of the sport’s power programs has become an exercise on par with the one demanded of hardcore Major League Baseball fans each spring. Basketball’s top amateur talent no longer remains amateur talent for any longer than it has to, which makes every recruiting season a do-or-die time frame for the bulk of the game’s most well-known coaches. There are no stars in the sport anymore, because the biggest boon that comes with attaining modern stardom has become the guarantee of a forthcoming professional contract, so long as you can go five or six weeks without getting hurt.
Nowhere has this phenomenon been more brutally felt in the last few weeks than the ACC, the league that went 11-1 in the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament and produced three of the teams in the Elite Eight, including the eventual national champion.
In early March, 15 players were named to either the first, second or third All-ACC team by the league’s coaches. Of those 15 players, just three will be back playing college hoops for their same teams next season. Two of those three players were members of the third All-ACC team.
Of course, bouncing for the NBA isn’t the only way attrition occurs these days. When being a star means NBA millions are just a handful of months away, nobody wants to wait to be a star. As a result, transfer rates continue to skyrocket, even on teams that figure to begin the upcoming campaign featured in the preseason Top 25.
While the ACC will undoubtedly be one of the top conferences in college basketball during the 2015-16 season, there will be some unfamiliar faces carrying the flags for most of the league's most prominent teams. In fact, just one out of the 15 teams in the ACC isn't (as of right now) losing a single underclassmen to either a transfer or the NBA Draft.
Here’s a team-by-team look at how hard the conference has already been hit by defections this offseason.
DUKE
NBA Draft Declarations: Jahlil Okafor (C, FR, 17.3 ppg), Tyus Jones (PG, FR, 11.8 ppg), Justise Winslow (F, FR, 12.6 ppg)
Transfers: Rasheed Sulaimon (JR, G, 7.5 ppg)
There’s nothing we didn’t already know here, and Sulaimon doesn’t fit the standard transfer mold since he was dismissed in the middle of last season. Still, knowing that this uphill climb was going to be ahead of him won’t make matters any easier for Coach K.
College basketball’s issues with consistency at star power might be best exemplified by the fact that its defending national champion has missed the NCAA Tournament entirely four times since 2008 -- Florida in 2008, North Carolina in 2010, Kentucky in 2013 and Connecticut this past season. It’s an occurrence that has taken place a total of only six times since the expansion of the tournament.
Duke is bringing more than enough back to avoid being the next name on that list, but there’s a reason why defending a title might be more difficult now than at any other point in the sport’s history.
VIRGINIA
NBA Draft Declarations: Justin Anderson (JR, G, 12.2 ppg)
Transfers: B.J. Stith (FR, G, 1.0 ppg)
The Cavaliers were supposed to be the one power team in the conference that was going to return everybody. That changed when Justin Anderson announced his intention to skip his final season of collegiate eligibility. The decision marked the end of a tumultuous 2015 run for Anderson, who was forced to miss a month after breaking his fingers in February, and then had to undergo an emergency appendectomy on the night before he was set to return to the court in early March. Cavalier fans had been hopeful to get a second chance with a full season of Anderson and the rest of their roster left virtually intact, but alas, that will not happen.
On the plus side, Tony Bennett returns three other full-time starters, including the only first-team All-ACC returnee in senior guard Malcolm Brogdon.
NOTRE DAME
NBA Draft Declarations: None
Transfers: None
The Fighting Irish already knew they were losing senior stars Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton, but it seems as though the only two underclassmen on the roster with a shot at the league right now -- Zach Auguste and Demetrius Jackson -- have each opted to return to South Bend. Toss in zero transfer defections, and Mike Brey is riding high into his post-Elite Eight offseason.
LOUISVILLE
NBA Draft Declarations: Terry Rozier (SO, G, 17.1 ppg), Montrezl Harrell (JR, F, 15.7 ppg)
Transfers: Anton Gill (SO, G, 2.5 ppg), Shaqquan Aaron (FR, G, 1.3 ppg)
The second he made the somewhat surprising decision to return to Louisville for his junior season, everyone knew this would be Harrell’s final run in college. Rozier was a bit more of a toss-up, especially after a late-season slump seemed to have a negative effect on his draft stock. Now both stars are gone, as are a pair of once highly touted recruits in Gill and Aaron. Aaron was the highest-rated player in Rick Pitino’s 2014 recruiting class, but was forced by the NCAA to sit out the first nine games of the season and then played sparingly behind senior Wayne Blackshear. The expectation that he would step into the role being left behind by Blackshear made his departure more surprising than Gill’s.
NORTH CAROLINA
NBA Draft Declarations: J.P. Tokoto (JR, F, 8.3 ppg)
Transfers: None
There might not be a bigger offseason winner so far than North Carolina, but even the Tar Heels are dealing with a surprise defection. Despite the fact that Tokoto's pro prospects are more lightly regarded than those of returning teammates like Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson and Marcus Paige, the would-be senior made the head-turning decision to throw his name into the NBA hat earlier this month.
NC STATE
NBA Draft Declarations: Trevor Lacey (JR, G, 15.7 ppg)
Transfers: Kyle Washington (SO, F, 6.8 ppg)
Coming off a surprising run to the Sweet 16, NC State was already a trendy preseason top-15 pick for 2015-16 before leading scorer Trevor Lacey announced he was done with college and top reserve Kyle Washington said he was headed to another program. Even though Lacey figures to be a late second-round pick at best, his decision to leave Raleigh becomes more understandable when you take into account the fact that he’ll turn 24 in October.
MIAMI
NBA Draft Declarations: None
Transfers: Manu Lecomte (SO, G, 7.9 ppg), Deandre Burnett (FR, G, 7.0 ppg)
Lecomte and Burnett were a pair of surprise departures from a Miami program that still seems more likely than not to be a tournament team in 2015-16, but that won’t have nearly the backcourt depth most figured it would.
SYRACUSE
NBA Draft Declarations: Chris McCullough (FR, F, 9.3 ppg)
Transfers: B.J. Johnson (SO, F, 4.2 ppg), Ron Patterson (SO, G, 2.6 ppg)
McCullough’s decision was one of the ACC’s most surprising. He played in just 16 games as a freshman after tearing his ACL in a win over Florida State on Jan. 11, and had not been playing well in the weeks leading up to the injury. After a brilliant start, McCullough averaged just 4.3 points per game from Dec. 14 against Louisiana Tech until sustaining the injury.
PITTSBURGH
NBA Draft Declarations: None
Transfers: Joe Uchebo (JR, C, 1.5 ppg), Tyrone Haughton (JR, F, 0.0 ppg), Durand Johnson (JR, F, suspended)
Jamie Dixon returns his top two scorers, including third-team All-ACC selection Jamel Artis. The three transfers were all expected and shouldn’t have any negative impact on the program for next season.
CLEMSON
NBA Draft Declarations: None
Transfers: Patrick Rooks (FR, G, 1.5 ppg)
Rooks played a total of just 52 minutes for the Tigers in his freshman season.
FLORIDA STATE
NBA Draft Declarations: Aaron Thomas (JR, G, 14.8 ppg)
Transfers: Dayshawn Watkins (SO, G, 1.3 ppg)
The NCAA declared Thomas ineligible for the second semester of this past season, which was a huge blow to Leonard Hamilton and the Seminoles. After the decision, Thomas announced that he had signed with an agent and would not be returning to school at FSU or anywhere else.
The better news for FSU is that Xavier Rathan-Mayes will be spending at least one more season in Tallahassee. He became the first freshman in ACC history to score 30 or more points three times, and was just the second freshman ever to lead the Noles in scoring.
WAKE FOREST
NBA Draft Declarations: None
Transfers: Daniel Green (JR, F, 0.3 ppg), Aaron Rountree (JR, F, 2.8 ppg)
Junior forward Devin Thomas was the only Deac who had reportedly expressed any interest in a possible jump to the league, but he will be back at Wake to wrap up his college career next fall.
BOSTON COLLEGE
NBA Draft Declarations: Olivier Hanlan (JR, G, 19.5 ppg)
Transfers: Will Magarity (SO, F, 3.9 ppg), Lonnie Jackson (SR, G, 0.0 ppg)
A first team All-ACC selection this past season, Hanlan led all major conference players in scoring average in league games at 21.9 ppg while also shooting 43.6 percent from beyond the arc. He chose to bounce out of college a year early despite most experts projecting him to be a late second-round selection.
GEORGIA TECH
NBA Draft Declarations: None
Transfers: None
Congratulations to the Yellow Jackets on being the only team in the ACC without a surprise defection ... including at head coach.
VIRGINIA TECH
NBA Draft Declarations: None
Transfers: Adam Smith (SR, G, 13.4 ppg), Joey van Zegeren (JR, C, 9.8 ppg)
You can argue that no team in the league has been harder hit by transfers than Virginia Tech, which is unexpectedly losing leading scorer Adam Smith and top big man Joey van Zegerer. The latter has already announced his intention to transfer to Northwestern, while the former is one of the most sought-after fifth-year transfers currently on the market.
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