Nobody knew December’s non-conference battle between Duke and Wisconsin at the Badgers’ Kohl Center would be a NCAA championship preview. It was possible, of course, since both teams were ranked in the top five on their way to eventual No. 1 seeds in the tournament. But December predictions are unwise because teams change and grow throughout a full season, something these two teams demonstrate.
Duke vs. Wisconsin 2015 picks and predictions: Badgers’ unstoppable offense holds advantage
Duke beat Wisconsin 80-70 in December, but the teams have changed dramatically since then.
That’s why Duke’s 80-70 win in December isn’t important enough to make the opening paragraph — everything is different now. Most of the players are the same, but roles have changed and expectations are different. Rematches tend to suggest what to expect, but Monday’s title game will be nothing like that Dec. 3 game.
For example, Rasheed Sulaimon scored 14 for Duke off the bench in the win, but he was dismissed from the team in January. Amile Jefferson has been replaced with the smaller Matt Jones in the Blue Devils' starting lineup. Tyus Jones had 22 points and led the team in scoring, something he hasn't done all tournament.
The last time Wisconsin shot 41 percent or worse in a game was Feb. 24, also the last game they lost. Traevon Jackson went for 25 as the team's top scorer, but he missed 19 games this season with a foot injury suffered in early January. Although he returned in the Sweet 16 to play limited minutes off the bench, Bronson Koenig remains the starter after finishing the season strong. Without Jackson, Sam Dekker has become even more important to the team.
Kentucky was the nation's best defense and even they couldn't slow down a Wisconsin offensive assault that is breaking offensive metrics. It felt like Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns -- two of the top defensive prospects in the country -- played Frank Kaminsky as well as they could, and yet he still scored 20 points on 7-11 shooting.
Duke poses another problem for him, though. They'll play the Big Ten Player of the Year a little different while still running athletic big men at him. If Towns isn't the No. 1 pick in this summer's NBA Draft, it's probably because Duke's Jahlil Okafor went above him. Kaminsky is fantastic, but he likely hasn't faced this much defensive pressure all season, much less in back-to-back games. His ability to recognize, react and adjust to Duke's defensive schemes is crucial.
Even if Kaminsky is slowed, though, no one has been able to bother Dekker. His 16 points on Saturday was his lowest point total all tournament, and he still nailed a huge and-1 layup and the stepback three-pointer that gave Wisconsin a lead for good.
Stopping Wisconsin completely doesn’t appear to be an option for Duke. They likely can’t match the Badgers shot-for-shot, but a better showing from behind the arc can help mitigate that. In December, their 7-12 shooting behind the arc was important. They blew out Michigan State on Saturday hitting just 2-10, but that won’t be enough this time around.
Duke was able to frustrate Wisconsin in December and won, but that was four months ago. That game isn’t a blueprint as much as a history lesson, something both sides should remember as they prepare for the most important game of their lives.
Prediction: Wisconsin 74, Duke 68
SB Nation presents: Why Duke has what it takes to win the 2015 NCAA Tournament
See More:
