5 things that will decide the national championship between Wisconsin and Duke
Duke and Wisconsin are ready to square off Monday night in Indianapolis. Here are five things that will determine the winner.
Ricky O'Donnell has covered basketball at all levels for more than a decade at SB Nation. He’s currently the Associate Director of Programming.
1. Sam Dekker vs. Justise Winslow
Frank Kaminsky and Jahlil Okafor get most of the attention for Wisconsin and Duke, and for good reason. Kaminsky is something like the perfect ideal of a college basketball star -- a four-year senior who got better every season and has a super likable personality and modern skill set to go with it. Okafor has lived up to the hype in a way few do. Everyone thought he would be the most polished interior scorer to enter the college game in years, and he has been.
With that being said, isn’t the matchup on the wing between Winslow and Dekker just as enticing?
Wisconsin and Duke wouldn’t be here without their swingmen, both of whom have taken star turns during this tournament. Dekker rose from the 20s all the way to No. 13 on DraftExpress’ latest mock. Winslow is up to No. 5 after dominating against Utah and Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, respectively.
This will be the last college game for Dekker and Winslow, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. It should go without saying that if either player is able to decidedly win this matchup, it will go a long way to determining who goes home with the title.
Dekker has been absolutely incredible lately -- you can make a pretty easy argument these last three games (vs. North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky) have been the three best games of his career. He set a personal scoring mark with 23 points against UNC and then topped it the next game with 27 points vs. an Arizona defense that entered ranking No. 7 in the country in efficiency.
Against Kentucky, he might have made the two biggest plays of the game: a nasty step-back three to break open a tie game with under two minutes left, and then drawing an offensive foul on Trey Lyles on the other end:
If Dekker can do it again against Winslow, it’ll be tough to question him as an NBA prospect. That’s because Winslow is exactly the type of competition Dekker is going to see in the pros -- big, strong, fast and more than willing to play both ends at 100 MPH.
Dekker was able to put up points against similarly big and athletic wings in Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in the Elite Eight, but it feels like Winslow is playing better right now than either of those guys did all season.
Chase down blocks? Step-back threes? Flexes after and-ones? It’ll all on the table. This is going to be a great matchup.
2. Can anyone stop Tyus Jones?
After watching Jones torch Wisconsin at the Kohl Center back in December, I wrote that he was the most impressive freshman point guard since John Wall was at Kentucky. Of course, you could also easily compare him to a player like Tyler Ennis last year at Syracuse. Ennis was terrific, but he succeeded despite not having ideal size or athleticism for his position. Jones is the same way.
So, what makes Jones special? It’s his scoring ability, his shooting touch, his understanding the game and the seamless way in which he can change tempos to control the pace. The man is an assassin, and you only need to watch what he did against the Badgers in December to see why.
Jones was unstoppable, finishing with 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting to give Duke a 10-point victory on the road. It was his first real breakout performance that made everyone realize Duke was far from Okafor’s one-man show.
As the season continued, Jones proved why he was ranked as the No. 4 recruit in the class of 2014 according to ESPN. He hit a deep three to put a dagger in Virginia (it was the Cavaliers’ first loss of the season) on Jan. 31 and then dominated the end of the Blue Devils’ first game against North Carolina.
Just watch this shot and try to tell me it’s the same kind of black magic Chris Paul has been thriving off of for years:
That’s not to say Jones will have a similar NBA career to Paul’s -- the bar has been set so high there, it’s almost impossible to reach. At the college level, though, Jones really will remind you of a young CP3 with the way he can control the game, shoot with range and get off a shot pretty much whenever he wants.
If Wisconsin can’t slow him down on Monday, it’ll be in trouble.
3. How do Duke and Wisconsin adjust to each other’s star big men?
After watching these two teams play in December, it feels safe to say Okafor and Kaminsky can’t guard each other.
Okafor only had 13 points in that game in Madison, but he was 6-of-8 from the field and established deep post position on Kaminsky seemingly whenever he wanted to. When Wisconsin had the ball, Kaminsky would often drag Okafor out to the perimeter and use his quickness to find a driving lane to the paint or pop a three-pointer.
If both of these players keep scoring on each other, how will Bo Ryan and Mike Krzyzewski adjust?
It'll be interesting to see if Ryan decides to double team Okafor in the post. Okafor is a really good passer with an advanced ability to read a collapsing defense. Duke also has great shooters in Jones and Quinn Cook, and two capable threats in Winslow and Matt Jones. Double Okafor to prevent an easy two and you might end up conceding an easy three.
Duke has more options it could potentially throw at Kaminsky. Would Winslow be up for the task in spot minutes? Could Amile Jefferson’s quickness and length match Kaminsky’s?
Kaminsky and Okafor have been the top Player of the Year candidates all season. There will be some adjustments on both sides, but it’s likely these two are going at each other for the majority of the game. That is unless ...
4. Foul trouble
Wisconsin has fouled at a historically low rate all season. Duke went to the free throw line 37 times against Michigan State (to the Spartans’ 16). What’s going to give?
Avoiding foul trouble is paramount for both of these teams because neither has a ton of quality depth. The Badgers will run Traevon Jackson and Duje Dukan and Zak Showalter out there a bit, while Duke will go to Grayson Allen, Jefferson and a few spot minutes from Marshall Plumlee. For the most part, though, both of these teams are relying on their starters.
Let’s just hope all of the important players are able to stay on the floor. The officiating has been poor throughout the tournament -- throughout the season, really -- and it would be a shame to see the title game tainted by a few bad calls.
5. Who controls the offensive glass?
No one expected Wisconsin to wash Kentucky, 12-6, in offensive rebounds in the Final Four, and finish with a 34-22 advantage on the glass for the night. What most people didn’t realize is that Kentucky was secretly very bad at keeping teams off the offensive glass all season long, ranking just No. 211 in that category according to KenPom.
Duke is somewhat similar in that regard, ranking No. 125 (per KenPom) in offensive rebounds given up. Wisconsin, conversely, was No. 4.
We’ve seen Wisconsin shine and Duke struggle on the glass for most of the tournament. San Diego State punished Duke on the offensive glass, 13-5, while Utah finished with an 18-8 advantage. Wisconsin was able to out-rebound a big and athletic North Carolina team (12-9 offensively, 35-28 overall) and hold its own against another big and athletic team (Arizona) a few days later.
Rebounding isn’t everything, but second chance points could make a different late. If that’s the case, Wisconsin may have the edge.
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