Jamal Murray’s recruiting choice decides where the last 5-star recruit lands for next season

Everything is supposed to be settled by this point in the college basketball offseason. Coaching vacancies have been filled, draft and transfer decisions have been made and many top programs are already preparing for summer exhibition trips. That’s why it’s big news when a recruit as talented as Canadian point guard Jamal Murray suddenly becomes eligible to play next season.

Murray ended months of speculation on Sunday by announcing he will indeed reclassify from 2016 to 2015. He’s choosing between two schools who would love to add him for next season: Oregon and Kentucky. Murray is set to make his decision on Tuesday.

Murray is a 6’4 point guard who was considered a five-star recruit in 2016. He was always far enough on his school work at Ontario’s Orangeville Prep to make reclassifying an option, but it became a realistic scenario after a breakout performance at the Nike Hoops Summit in April.

Murray put on a show at the Hoops Summit in Portland, leading all scorers with 30 points while adding six assists. He showcased great driving ability, the strength to finish at the rim and quality court vision. Think of him as a power guard with a developing outside shot that could soon make him a complete offensive force.

So, will it be Oregon or Kentucky? Let’s break down Murray’s options

The Ducks are considered the favorites here. Oregon forward Elgin Cook already welcomed Murray to the team via Twitter:

Oregon loses star scoring guard Joseph Young to graduation, but still has a strong team returning next season. Cook and sophomore forward Dillon Brooks will be expected to carry the scoring load, while Jordan Bell and Bill Walton’s favorite player, Dwayne “Snoop Dogg” Benjamin, man the middle.

Oregon also has a four-man class entering the program, led by top 100 recruits Tyler Dorsey and Kendall Small. Dorsey, a former Arizona commit, is the real prize. The 6’4 guard can play either the point or the two, and is considered a ferocious, athletic defender. Small is another point guard, which means the Ducks could be awfully young in the backcourt next season.

Even with two talented guards entering the program, adding Murray is a no-brainer for Oregon. He shared the court with some of the best recruits in 2015 at the Hoops Summit and might have been the best player on the floor. If Murray lives up to his recruiting hype, Oregon could be a major sleeper in the Pac-12 next season as Utah loses star guard Delon Wright and Arizona loses four starters.

Listen: Kentucky is going to be really good next year. Skal Labiessie is the front-runner to go No. 1 in the 2016 NBA Draft, Tyler Ulis and Marcus Lee will provide veteran experience and Isaiah Briscoe is a terrific power guard who should start immediately as a freshman. Still, if Murray chooses Oregon, it will be hard to ignore the trend of John Calipari striking out in late period recruiting once again.

Kentucky was in the mix to land to Jaylen Brown, but he chose Cal. They were among the finalists for Brandon Ingram, but he chose Duke. They could have gotten a commitment from Cheick Diallo or Caleb Swanigan, but the big men picked Kansas and Purdue respectively. Even as Kentucky will start next season as a top 10 team, losing Murray would hurt.

It’s worth pointing out that Murray would not be a perfect fit with the Wildcats. With Ulis and Briscoe, Calipari has his starting backcourt. What Kentucky really needs is a wing to push Alex Poythress to his natural position at the four. Murray would allow Calipari to run a three-guard offense, but that would be a lot of players who want and need the ball in their hands.

Did last season’s platoon hurt Kentucky in recruiting? Will Calipari save face by landing a class of 2016 stud like Jayson Tatum or Harry Giles? Is all of this overblown?

If Murray does the unexpected and picks Kentucky, everything becomes a moot point. When Kentucky starts racking up wins in the regular season and Labiessie looks like a superstar, it will be hard to question Coach Cal’s recent recruiting streak. But on the heels of a historically good team last season that came up two wins short of perfection, the spotlight on Kentucky and Calipari to keep this thing rolling will never be brighter.

After Duke won the national title with four freshmen scoring 60 of their 68 points in the title game, recruiting battles like the one for Murray seem to take on extra meaning. College basketball looks wide open for next season, and a player like Murray could be a major difference maker come March. If he proves to be as good as he was at the Hoops Summit, it wouldn’t be a surprise if we’re projecting him as a top 20 pick in the NBA a year from now.