Crazy things tend to happen during the opening few weeks of conference play in college basketball. For the country’s top teams, the days of overwhelming low majors and only having to really “get up” for a handful of quality opponents are over. Suddenly, these teams are being hunted, and the opponents doing the hunting are familiar with their style, their players and their venues. The results, often, are surprising ... although maybe they shouldn’t be.
Early struggles in conference play are normal for college basketball’s elite teams
The new year has already seen some surprisingly dismal performances from the best college basketball teams in the country, and recent history shows that we should expect that trend to continue.
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On Tuesday night alone, the college hoops world saw No. 1 Kansas, No. 3 Maryland, No. 8 Miami and No. 17 Iowa State all taste defeat. No. 12 Providence avoided making that list thanks to a buzzer-beater from national Player of the Year candidate Kris Dunn. Given the generally accepted “no great teams” climate of the sport right now, it’s a safe bet that this month will feature at least two or three more of these types of nights before the calendar flips to February.
So should fans of these top-ranked teams experiencing this New Year phenomenon be worried? Let’s look at the past 15 teams to cut down the nets and the setbacks they experienced (if any) in the month of January.
Duke (2015) - At NC State (87-75); vs. Miami (90-74); at No. 8 Notre Dame (77-73)
Connecticut (2014) - At SMU (74-65); vs. No. 18 Louisville (76-64)
Louisville (2013) - vs. No. 6 Syracuse (70-68); at Villanova (73-64); at Georgetown (53-51)
Kentucky (2012) - Did not lose
Connecticut (2011) - At No. 14 Notre Dame (73-70); vs. No. 23 Louisville (79-78)
Duke (2010) - At No. 20 Georgia Tech (71-67); At NC State (88-74); At No. 7 Georgetown (89-77)
North Carolina (2009) - vs. Boston College (85-78); At No. 4 Wake Forest (92-89)
Kansas (2008) - At No. 24 Kansas State (84-75)
Florida (2007) - Did not lose
Florida (2006) - At Tennessee (80-76); At South Carolina (68-62)
North Carolina (2005) - At No. 4 Wake Forest (95-82)
Connecticut (2004) - At No. 11 North Carolina (86-83); vs. Providence (66-56)
Syracuse (2003) - At No. 3 Pittsburgh (73-60); At Rutgers (68-65)
Maryland (2002) - At No. 1 Duke (99-78)
In summary, six of the past 15 national champions lost twice in the month of January, three of those teams lost only once, three more (including the most recent) were beaten three times, and just two made it through the first full month of conference play unscathed.
Of the 24 total losses suffered by these champions, 13 came against ranked opponents. Although 11 unranked teams were involved in these upsets, only five of those teams ultimately failed to make the NCAA Tournament -- Rutgers in ‘03, South Carolina in ‘06, NC State in ‘10, SMU in ‘14 and Miami last season. Three of these national champions -- Florida in 2006, Louisville in 2013 and Duke last season -- lost consecutive games, and those three teams are also the only eventual champs to lose more than once to an unranked squad.
In the last decade and a half ,there have been more national champions that have lost three games during the first month of league play and then pulled themselves together than there have been eventual net-cutters that have steamrolled through January. If you’re the fan of a team that just experienced or will experience a surprising bump in the road this month, it’s more than likely not cause for total panic.
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