This season, it looks like only seven of the 32 Division I conferences are assured of sending more than one team to the NCAA Tournament. A few consistent multi-bid performers—the American Athletic, Missouri Valley, Mountain West and West Coast Conferences—€”might need things to break right to have multiple entries this season. Meanwhile, the Metro Atlantic has the potential to earn more than one bid for the first time since 2012, and the Horizon could possibly send a second team, a feat last accomplished back in 2009, when Butler was a member.
Let’s project how many NCAA Tournament bids each conference will earn on Selection Sunday
With the 2015-16 season being unpredictable, Selection Sunday’s field of 68 is likely to look radically different than Tuesday’s projection. Today, our resident bracketologist examines how many bids each conference is likely to secure on March 13th and why that total might differ from a late January forecast.
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It’s more than likely that the automatic bid winners of the seven probable multi-bid leagues will be teams who would otherwise claim an at-large bid. If you add those seven teams to the 36 at-large spots, 43 bids are up for grabs here on January 22nd.
So, with seven weeks left, here’s how many of these 43 bids I forecast each conference (or group of leagues) will earn on Selection Sunday and why.
Note: All RPI numbers are courtesy of BBState ($) and include games completed prior to Thursday, January 21, 2016.
ACC
Number of teams in current projection: 9 (North Carolina, Virginia, Miami, Duke, Louisville, Pitt, Notre Dame, Florida State, Syracuse)
Teams in contention: 14 (everyone except for Boston College, in theory)
Teams in the RPI Top 50: 9
Teams in the RPI Top 100: 13
Does that "Teams in contention" number look a bit high? Well, the ACC has just been that difficult to pin down in the first few weeks of 2015 ... and I'm not keen on getting surprised by a team like 2014's edition of North Carolina State on Selection Sunday this time around. And, oh boy, are there plenty of potential '14 Wolfpacks in this group.
Those teams include the 2016 version of N.C. State, which has a 1-5 ACC mark, which is a game worse than their 2-4 mark at this point two seasons ago. Georgia Tech, with a 1-4 conference record, actually ranks higher in the RPI table than the Wolfpack (56th vs. 83rd) and recently fancied Clemson (85th). Wake Forest, another one-win ACC team, also ranks higher than the Tigers, at 64th. In fact, Virginia Tech, one of the teams I have as the whopping 14 in contention, hasn't even cracked the Top 100 yet. The Hokies rank 112th, thanks in no small part to a non-conference strength of schedule ranking of 241st.
Given the marginal records and computer numbers owned by most of the mid-tier ACC squads—€”Florida State and Syracuse actually rank in the Top 50, higher than the teams that have attracted most of the nation’s attention in recent weeks—expect some regression and for some of these hopefuls to drop off. Non-conference results will be particularly helpful for the Orange and Wake Forest than the rest, thanks to their wins in their respective Thanksgiving week tournaments.
But there are enough hopefuls and more than enough quality matchups left for the ACC to hover around its current total all the way into March. It’s just that teams eight and, potentially, nine might be a mystery all the way through the conference tournament in Greensboro.
Projected final bid total: 8 (down one from Tuesday’s projection)
Atlantic 10
Number of teams in current projection: 3 (Dayton, George Washington, VCU)
Teams in contention: 8 (the three above plus Saint Joseph's, St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island, Richmond, Davidson)
Teams in the RPI Top 50: 4
Teams in the RPI Top 100: 7 (with Richmond just outside)
Right now, there appear to be only two sure things in the Atlantic 10: 1) Dayton will get in 2) so will the conference tournament winner. Now, if the Flyers happen to win in Brooklyn, the A-10 will still probably get a second team. George Washington looks like the most likely at-large other than Dayton, thanks to early wins over Virginia and Seton Hall, but VCU, currently leading the conference at 6-0, might have a chance too.
The Rams' lack of a marquee non-conference win might not even give the Selection Committee pause, considering Davidson's best non-league win last year came against UNC Wilmington, ranked 150th in the RPI. Indeed, if the Committee uses a similar approach this March, the Wildcats and Saint Joe's, two squads in the RPI Top 50 without a quality win outside of the Atlantic 10, will head into Selection Sunday with a legitimate chance at a bid€—provided they keep their lofty ranking.
With the conference weaker in the middle this season, the challenge will be grabbing enough quality wins to keep those computer numbers up. That doesn’t bode well for increasing this week’s projection over the long term.
Projected final bid total: 3 (holding steady from Tuesday’s projection)
Big 12
Number of teams in current projection: 6 (Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas)
Teams in contention: 9 (everyone except for TCU)
Teams in the RPI Top 50: 7
Teams in the RPI Top 100: 8
While the top of the Big 12€ - Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State and Baylor—attracts the most attention, the top three teams of its second division are working to make the conference's bid total six or more. Texas looks to be in the best position to break through, with five of its 12 wins coming against Top 50 opponents and an RPI ranking of 15th. In theory, Texas Tech should be in great shape too, thanks to its position in that same table, 33rd. But given the Red Raiders' early struggles in conference, picking up just two wins in its first six games, it looks likely that Tech's position will steadily decline between now and Selection Sunday.
Kansas State should be in position to make a late push, and perhaps its not too late, but a 1-5 Big 12 mark with two double-overtime losses doesn't bode well for the Wildcats' future prospects. Then there's Oklahoma State, who will need far more than a win over Kansas to get back in the picture, thanks to an RPI ranking of 134th.
Right now, it’s hard to see any team sitting between seventh and 10th in the Big 12 table sneaking in without a miracle run in Kansas City.
Projected final bid total: 6 (holding steady from Tuesday’s projection)
Big East
Number of teams in current projection: 5 (Villanova, Xavier, Providence, Butler, Seton Hall)
Teams in contention: 8 (everyone except for DePaul and St. John's)
Teams in the RPI Top 50: 5
Teams in the RPI Top 100: 7
The top four in the Big East look pretty solid for selection, even if Butler might not have as many quality wins as you'd like (an absence of bad losses helps the Bulldogs). But every team outside of the bottom two might be able to play their way in, although Marquette's chances took a hit with a home loss to DePaul on Wednesday night, not a great result for a team that's already received criticism for a laughably weak non-conference schedule and which currently sits 121st in the RPI.
Creighton, currently 93rd, will need to pick up some quality wins in their remaining 12 conference games to have a legitimate chance, especially with Nebraska likely to be the Bluejays' best non-conference win. Georgetown, 67th, needs victories to make up for a pair of bad early season home losses—Radford and UNC Asheville.
Wednesday’s close home loss to Villanova leads me to think that Seton Hall won’t duplicate their ugly collapse of 2015. Combine a strong finish by the Pirates with a late rally by one of improving Creighton or Georgetown and the Big East should be able to get to an even half dozen.
Projected final bid total: 6 (up one from Tuesday’s projection)
Big Ten
Number of teams in current projection: 7 (Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State)
Teams in contention: 10 (everyone except for Penn State, Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers)
Teams in the RPI Top 50: 6
Teams in the RPI Top 100: 9
This season's Big Ten appears to be stratified into two divisions, but really, it's three. The first six teams representing the conference in this week's bracket are rather safe at this early stage. Ohio State, however, is not, even with a win over Kentucky, thanks to early losses to Memphis and Louisiana Tech. (Winning at Purdue last night would have been a tremendous boost.) Nebraska and Wisconsin, who have each defeated Michigan State in the past week, could mount a late challenge, but they'll first have to prove their victories over the Spartans weren't a fluke. The Cornhuskers, computer numbers are particularly troublesome, as they barely rank in the RPI Top 150 (145th) even after Wednesday's big win.
But the biggest issue any potential Big Ten bubble team will encounter is games against the bottom of the conference, which won’t provide many quality win opportunities over the last seven weeks of the season, while simultaneously increasing the chances to pick up the dreaded bad loss. With Penn State sitting 97th, it’s possible that each of the conference’s bottom six teams will soon sit outside of the Top 100, with Rutgers and Minnesota ranking outside of the Top 200. Last season, only three conference teams ranked so low, with Rutgers coming in last, at 181st.
That weakness might end up costing a league hopeful in March, provided it can’t rack up enough wins against the six strongest squads in the final seven weeks and in Indianapolis.
Projected final bid total: 6 (down one from Tuesday’s projection)
Pac-12
Number of teams in current projection: 7 (Oregon, Arizona, USC, Utah, UCLA, Colorado, California)
Teams in contention: 11 (everyone except for Washington State)
Teams in the RPI Top 50: 8
Teams in the RPI Top 100: 11
The Pac-12 is the most loaded conference top-to-bottom through the season's first 10-plus weeks, with all but one team ranking in the RPI Top 100 and the top two-thirds in the Top 50, which is an exceptionally difficult trick to pull off. However, in a 12-team league it's going to be difficult to translate that into bids, simply because it's not possible for Washington State to absorb every loss in conference play. With home teams 23-12 so far in Pac-12 play, defending your home court and grabbing the occasional road win will be vital to stay both in the conference title race and bid conversation. Oregon State and Arizona State, the only two teams not nicknamed the Cougars with a 1-2 mark in home conference games are already behind the eight ball when it comes to the first factor. Utah, at 1-1, also needs to be careful.
While the potential for quality wins exists all the way through to the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas, some cannibalization must be expected in this conference, which will likely hit the teams that have been most inconsistent so far this season the hardest (Cal, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona State).
Projected final bid total: 6 (down one from Tuesday’s projection)
SEC
Number of teams in current projection: 4 (Texas A&M, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida)
Teams in contention: 9 (everyone except for Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri Tigers (ineligible) and Tennessee)
Teams in the RPI Top 50: 5
Teams in the RPI Top 100: 10 (with LSU just outside)
As hard as the SEC’s office has worked to improve the conference’s basketball reputation, the project is still evolving. Once again, it appears the league will see a lower number of bids when compared to its power conference brethren. While Texas A&M and, to a lesser extent, South Carolina have surprised, Florida has been marginally better than expected, and Kentucky will still likely get in despite its inconsistency, it’s difficult to find a fifth surefire at-large pick among the remaining 9 eligible members. (Missouri self-imposed a postseason ban.)
Vanderbilt, considered Kentucky's main threat back in November, has disappointed. Ben Simmons hasn't been enough to make LSU a real threat, as the Tigers struggled against what was already a weak non-conference schedule. Alabama picked up surprising non-league wins over Clemson, Wichita State and Notre Dame, but they've struggled since entering conference play. Georgia has to dig itself out of a hole it created by playing a shortened, weakened slate in November and December, while Ole Miss needs to be a bit more consistent to elevate its RPI ranking of 84th.
It looks like the SEC will struggle to match its 2015 bid total of five. In fact, the best hope for teams outside of the current four projected teams is to leapfrog one of them, most likely Florida or South Carolina.
Projected final bid total: 4 (holding steady from Tuesday’s projection)
Other Conferences
Teams in contention: 17 (Cincinnati, Connecticut and Memphis from the American; UC Irvine from the Big West; William & Mary from the Colonial; Middle Tennessee from Conference USA; Valparaiso from the Horizon; Monmouth from the Metro Atlantic; Wichita State from the Missouri Valley; Boise State and San Diego State from the Mountain West; Chattanooga from the Southern; Little Rock and UT-Arlington from the Sun Belt; and BYU and Saint Mary's from the West Coast)
Teams in the RPI Top 50: 6 (including ineligible SMU)
Teams in the RPI Top 100: 35 (including SMU)
Given how tumultuous the first half of the season has been, we can probably forecast that the Championship Fortnight will be absolute chaos. With that in mind, I suspect we are going to see at least a couple of surprise auto bid winners, who will earn their way into the tournament at the immediate expense of a conference rival who at least dominated the regular season and might have picked up a quality non-conference win along the way (perhaps Monmouth or Valparaiso). In turn, those regular season champions will jump into the field, condemning a middling power-conference squad €”of which there will be many (just look at those “Teams in Contention” numbers above) to an NIT home game or two.
Projected final at-large bid total: 4 (up two from Tuesday’s projection)
Next Friday, we will be six weeks and two days from Selection Sunday. (Where has the time gone?) That means it will finally be time to check in on the lock and bubble picture, as messy as it will assuredly be, for 2016.
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