Bracketology: Who is already a lock for the NCAA Tournament?

Maybe you checked in a bit on weeknights when you had a free moment. And when you did, you were probably scared by some of the things you saw: Iowa in the Big Ten lead thanks to road wins over both Michigan State and Purdue; Duke, Gonzaga and Kentucky struggling; the Pac-12 looking like an absolute beast and an enigma at the same time; Oklahoma and West Virginia threatening the Big 12 dominance of Kansas; the absence of a clear national championship favorite.

Through the first 11 weeks of the season, these 16 squads have started to separate themselves as the main contenders for the national championship. For the most part, these teams have racked up some quality wins (Maryland's struggles against quality opposition until last night's win over Iowa is an exception) and avoided bad losses (other than North Carolina's still puzzling defeat at Northern Iowa and Miami's home setback against Northeastern).

Keep an eye on the teams on lines five through seven as threats to jump into the Top 16, particularly those in the ACC (Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and yes, even Duke), Big 12 (Baylor) and Pac-12 (USC, Utah and Arizona), thanks to the number of quality wins available in those conferences.

Kentucky might have to add a win over Kansas on Saturday (and one in the future against league-leading Texas A&M) to victories over Louisville and Duke to make the leap, while Dayton must likely capture both the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament crowns to earn a promotion. That would be a difficult feat, even with that conference being a bit down this season.

Out of this group, Texas and Colorado, both 4-4 against the RPI Top 50 (with the Longhorns 3-2 against the Top 25), along with California, 5-5 against that group have separated themselves from the rest. Wichita State, 9-0 in the Missouri Valley and winner of 12 of its last 13, has gotten itself back into the at-large picture. That means the Shockers have a good chance at selection should they fail to win Arch Madness. That seemed a distant possibility when Gregg Marshall's team was swept out of the Advocare Invitational at Walt Disney World over Thanksgiving weekend.

And not only does Wichita State have a chance at earning an at-large, if necessary. Monmouth, Valparaiso and Saint Mary's have put themselves in that position with their performances throughout the season, while VCU's strong Atlantic 10 start has put the Rams back in the picture.

Now we've reached the part of the seed list where things start to get really dicey. Pac-12 co-leader Washington joins today's field, thanks to their sweep of UCLA, who slipped down to the line below partially as a result of last night's defeat. Seton Hall has the best win of the group, winning at Providence, but the Pirates will likely need to add a few more to stick around with so much competition.

Florida's top victory came against Saint Joseph's, currently on the outside looking in on a neutral floor in Connecticut back in November. Defeating West Virginia tomorrow in the Big 12/SEC Challenge would help the Gators considerably. As for Gonzaga, its best win over Washington in the Battle 4 Atlantis looks better with each passing day, and the one over UConn in that same event also helps.

Syracuse's Thursday night triumph over Notre Dame Fighting Irish improved the Orange's record over the Top 50 to 3-4 and moved Cuse into the RPI top 40. Therefore, Syracuse joins the field for now. With last night's game serving as the opening of a four-game homestand, Jim Boeheim's team will have the chance to solidify its place in the coming weeks.

After a double overtime loss to Richmond, George Washington might be on the way to learning an important lesson in the coming weeks: a Tip-Off Marathon home win over Virginia is not enough. Another squad that's defeated the Cavaliers at home, Florida State, must pick up a few more ACC wins to boost a profile that features wins at Florida and over VCU in Atlanta.

Each of these teams has some level of work to do to crack the field. In the case of the two most discussed teams in this group, LSU would certainly have more of a case with a home win over Oklahoma on Saturday, while Clemson really needs to defeat a quality opponent on the road.

Over the last two nights, Stanford, Oregon State and Boise State each saw their chances take a hit with road setbacks. On the other hand, Georgetown's issues stem from the early season, when the Hoyas lost to Radford and UNC Asheville. They'll need to keep winning Big East games to make up that lost ground.

These 16 teams have varying levels of hope. Creighton would have been ranked higher had the Bluejays not collapsed against Georgetown on Tuesday night. Wisconsin has defeated Indiana and Michigan State recently, but the Badgers must pick up some more quality Big Ten wins to make up for a lackluster November and December. It's a similar story for Nebraska. Vanderbilt's Tuesday win over Florida helped get them back on track, while Temple's follow-up to a big home win over ineligible SMU was less than ideal. Losing to East Carolina is not going to win you friends in the Committee room.

Northwestern and Marquette both look to be a year away. Texas Tech needs to start winning Big 12 games to keep its computer numbers up, while Kansas State must do the same, though the Wildcats will rue some close losses early in the conference season.

Now, two teams in this group do have a theoretical chance at an at-large -- Chattanooga, who won at Dayton and Georgia in non-conference play, and San Diego State, which defeated Cal in the Las Vegas Invitational. But for the rest, it will be auto bid or bust, which is a shame for conferences that have been competitive nationally this season, such as the Big West, Colonial, Summit and Sun Belt.