The case for drafting Brandon Ingram over Ben Simmons No. 1 overall

For as long as 2016 NBA mock drafts have existed, Ben Simmons has been the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. Simmons is the player who’s had a camera crew following him around since high school for an upcoming documentary, the player at the center of an LSU marketing campaign before he arrived on campus and the player ESPN celebrates every chance it gets.

Less than a month before Selection Sunday, it’s safe to say Simmons has lived up to the hype even as his team has struggled. But if his grip on the No. 1 pick is starting to feel tenuous, it’s because Duke wing Brandon Ingram has established himself as a special prospect in his own right.

Ingram didn’t exactly come out of nowhere -- his pedigree is as impressive as any player in college basketball. He was a four-time state champion in high school, a McDonald’s All-American and a consensus top three recruit in the class of 2015. North Carolina coach Roy Williams admitted he recruited Ingram harder than any player in his 27-year coaching career, and he’ll get a chance to see what he missed on when the Tar Heels host Duke on Wednesday.

Ingram struggled through the first seven games of the season, most memorably when he was shut down against Kentucky (four points on 1-of-6 shooting with four turnovers and four fouls) on a neutral court in his third college game. He’s been brilliant pretty much ever since, blossoming into the type of devastating offensive weapon on the wing any team would love to have.

Ingram has two major things going for him: length and shooting ability. Given the way the NBA is evolving, that’s sure to be on the mind of whatever team ends up picking at No. 1.

Ingram’s last game against Virginia showed why he’s a real threat to jump Simmons in the draft. The Cavaliers annually have one of college basketball’s stingiest defenses, but Ingram sliced them up for 25 points in a controversial Duke win. This sequence, from a stretch where Ingram scored 18 consecutive points, perfectly illustrated why he’s so hard to guard.

Here, Duke runs the same action on consecutive possessions to get Ingram the ball on the wing and left side cleared out. On the first possession, the defender gives Ingram a sliver of room and he confidently steps into a three. Next time down the floor, the defender applies ball pressure and Ingram blows past him for a highlight dunk.

Now imagine LSU running that action for Simmons. The defense is going to play way off him because they know he won’t shoot the three. The threat of that perimeter jumper makes all the difference in the world.

Two things stand out about Ingram’s jumper: his footwork and quick release. Watch how quickly he sets his feet and rips this triple with a Virginia defender barreling down on him:

At this stage of his career, the catch-and-shoot is what Ingram does best. His three-point percentage is up to 40.9 percent on 5.3 attempts after the slow start and he’s hitting 44.6 percent of his treys in ACC play.

That’s a nice building block. For a player who didn’t turn 18 years old until September, Ingram is one of youngest freshmen in college basketball and younger than several of the top prospects in next year’s incoming class. Of course he still needs to diversify his game, but the early signs show that he can eventually grow into a go-to option on the perimeter for an NBA team.

Ingram is getting the opportunity to run a lot of spread pick-and-roll as both the ball handler and the screener for Duke this season, and that’s going to be big for his development. He already has five more assists in 10 fewer games than Jabari Parker did in his freshman season at Duke. Ingram isn’t on Simmons’ level as a passer or creator (who is?), but he’s shown enough to give NBA coaches something to work with.

The poise on both plays is what’s really impressive, that he’s aware enough to survey the defense and not bull rush to the rim with his head down like many young players.

Not everything has been easy for Ingram. The biggest story for Duke thus far has been a foot injury to Amile Jefferson, the veteran big man who has started alongside Parker, Jahlil Okafor and now Ingram. Jefferson has been out since mid-December and his absence has forced Ingram to play power forward, despite weighing only 195 pounds. That’s been a give-and-take proposition for the Blue Devils -- Ingram has been great at attacking opposing fours but he hasn’t always been strong enough to defend them.

Ingram isn’t the quickest athlete on the floor, but his 7’3 wingspan can still help him become a playmaker on that end. This is a wing who is longer than many NBA centers and he’s just started to learn how to leverage that length to his advantage.

Yes, Brandon Ingram is far from a finished product. He needs to hit the weight room hard, he needs to become a more creative finisher around the rim and he needs to refine his ball handling. It’s easy to watch Simmons and think he could have jumped to the NBA out of high school without missing a beat. Ingram likely would have been swallowed alive in that scenario.

But Simmons is also 14 months older than Ingram, and NBA development is a marathon, not a sprint. Ingram has three inches of reach on Simmons and he’s a far better shooter at this point. Whichever team lands the first pick will have to decide if Simmons’ advantage in speed, strength and playmaking outweigh Ingram’s advantage in shooting and length.

More than anything, Ingram just fits better in most NBA offenses from the jump than Simmons will. Simmons is such a unique talent that you almost have to construct your roster around his strengths -- that means getting a rim-protecting center and three shooters on the perimeter. Ingram’s shooting ability allows him to essentially slide in anywhere and makes him a much bigger threat off the ball.

What’s become clear is that this will be a tough choice. Ingram’s recent play has cemented the fact that this isn’t a one-player draft and he’s no consolation prize. Ben Simmons is great, but he can hear Brandon Ingram coming.