11 predictions for college basketball’s 2017-18 season

1. The FBI’s probe into college basketball will overshadow the season

It would be great if on Nov. 10, the collective focus of the college hoops world shifted to the basketball court and remained there until the first Monday of April. That isn’t going to happen. The FBI investigation that has dominated college basketball’s headlines since late September will continue to do so throughout the winter.

Every day will have the potential to bring to light new details that could lead to high-profile player suspensions and uncertain futures for program head and assistant coaches. Every mysterious player absence will be met with questions about whether the nonattendance has to do with the FBI investigation. Even for programs that appear to be totally unaffected by all this, fans will wonder if new details will eventually be unearthed months or years down the line that change the perception of said program’s season.

It’s not where anyone associated with the sport wants to be, but it’s where we are.

2. Before the end of the season, the FBI investigation will cost at least one more head coach his job

Thus far, the major fallout from the FBI probe has been a handful of players being held out of action, and the end of Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino’s tenure at Louisville. It’s hard to foresee the next six months playing out without at least one more head coach losing his job, especially given some of the names that are implicated in the FBI’s initial complaint.

The timing for making a move in-season obviously isn’t ideal, but there will be at least one athletic director who isn’t left with a choice. It will help the athletic director’s cause if said head coach wasn’t exactly doing sparkling work before this whole thing got started.

3. Kansas will win the 2017-18 national championship

The Jayhawks seem to be the most overlooked member of college basketball’s preseason top five. That might be because of all the production they lost from last season, or it might be because of all the NCAA tournament disappointment the program has experienced since its 2012 run to the national title game.

Whatever the reasons, Bill Self has the pieces to make those overlooking KU feel foolish come March. Devonte’ Graham is ready to step into Frank Mason’s role as the team’s unquestioned leader and Player of the Year candidate. Malik Newman has drawn rave reviews ever since his arrival from Mississippi State. Svi Mykhailiuk is ready to take another giant step forward in his final college season, and Billy Preston is a remarkably gifted freshman forward everyone seems to have forgotten about.

Kansas might not shine as brightly as Duke or Michigan State at the beginning of the season, but it’ll be the last team standing at the end of it.

4. The Jayhawks will pass UCLA and win their 14th straight Big 12 regular season title

For a while, “this is the year Kansas doesn’t do it” seemed to be everyone’s annual preseason prediction. Now, it seems like the college basketball world has resigned itself to the fact that the Jayhawks might win at least a share of the Big 12’s regular season title from now until the sport ceases to exist.

Bob Huggins’ West Virginia Mountaineers are a legitimate top-15 team and should provide KU with its biggest conference competition. Outside of that, however, there isn’t a whole lot for Self to be concerned about. TCU and Texas should both be improved, but neither feels like a stone-cold lock to make the NCAA tournament. Baylor and Iowa State will both take significant steps back from a year ago, and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will both remain in a place lower than where their fans expect to be.

When the dust settles, Kansas will have captured its 14th consecutive Big 12 regular season title. That will separate the Jayhawks’ dominance from that of UCLA, which won the Pac-12 for 13 straight seasons from 1967 through 1979.

5. Wichita State will emerge as the new Gonzaga

This prediction isn’t about the Shockers making a run to the national championship game. This also isn’t about a move to the American Athletic Conference helping Gregg Marshall’s program shed the “mid-major” label forever. This is about Wichita State becoming the new team that polarizes the college basketball world.

The Shockers will begin 2017-18 ranked No. 7 in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll. They’re also a trendy Final Four pick for many a college hoops writer. There is a large segment of the American public that isn’t buying any of this. This same segment of the public which doubted Gonzaga throughout last season will cast doubt upon Wichita State until the Shockers have the opportunity to prove themselves in the NCAA tournament.

Adding fuel to this unnecessary fire is the strong possibility that Wichita State will be “upset” multiple times in the first few weeks of the regular season. Landry Shamet and Markis McDuffie, the team’s two best players, have both been dealing with foot injuries for the bulk of the offseason. The potential for neither to be 100 percent (or to be out completely) makes the team’s early season tests against Cal, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and at the Maui Invitational more dangerous than they should be. Don’t be surprised if the team drops a couple of those games, and if those losses create a false narrative about their status as a legitimate Final Four contender heading into the Big Dance.

6. Houston’s Rob Gray will lead the nation in scoring

Gray has spent the bulk of his college career up to this point in relative obscurity, putting up gaudy numbers for good but not great Houston teams. He’ll become more of a nationally recognized name in 2017-18 as he puts up absurd point totals on a Cougars squad that doesn’t figure to give him a significant amount of offensive support.

Gray’s scoring should be an added bonus for an American Athletic Conference that was already going to be more fun to follow this season than it has been in year’s past.

7. Two legitimate Cinderella teams will crash the NCAA tournament’s second weekend

Only one double-digit seed made the Sweet 16 in 2017, and that was a Xavier team that began the season ranked in the top 15 and has a history of success in the Big Dance. In fact, the only team that won a game in the tournament that could have possibly qualified as a “Cinderella” was 12th-seeded Middle Tennessee, and the Blue Raiders were actually a betting favorite in their win over No. 5 seed Minnesota.

History like this doesn’t tend to immediately repeat itself when it comes to March Madness. There are a number of mid/low major squads that appear to be on the verge of fielding their most formidable teams in years. Expect at least two of these teams to bring the madness back to the tournament’s opening weekend by winning a pair of games and moving on to the Sweet 16.

8. Michael Porter Jr. will guide Missouri into the field of 68

In both of the last two seasons, college basketball fans have watched the nation’s top recruit go to a non-blueblood Power 5 program and wind up falling woefully short of the NCAA tournament. Ben Simmons couldn’t take LSU to the promised land two seasons ago, and Markelle Fultz could only help Washington win nine games in 2016-17. Both players still wound up being the first player selected in their respective NBA drafts, but fans of the college game felt robbed of the opportunity to watch the young talents compete on the sport’s biggest stage.

Michael Porter Jr., who shifted his college pledge from Washington to Missouri following the firing of Huskies head coach Lorenzo Romar last spring, has an opportunity to buck this trend. Mizzou went just 8-24 last season, but it has a new head coach in Cuonzo Martin, and a top-five recruiting class headlined by Porter Jr. and his younger brother, Jontay. This might not be enough to make the Tigers national title contenders, but it will be enough to allow them to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

9. Saint Mary’s will unseat Gonzaga as kings of the West Coast Conference

Saint Mary’s tasted defeat just five times in 2016-17. Once was a surprise early season defeat at the hands of UT-Arlington. Another came in a hotly contested battle with second-seeded Arizona in the NCAA tournament. The other three losses for the Gaels all came to arch-rival Gonzaga, and they came by a total of 51 points.

Randy Bennett returns just about every main piece from that Saint Mary’s team of a year ago, making this perhaps the most highly anticipated season in program history. It also makes his team one that is hellbent on revenge.

Gonzaga is getting the respect owed to a program that played for the national title last season and which is on the verge of making its 20th consecutive NCAA tournament. Still, the Zags are going to be taking a step back in 2017-18. The losses of Nigel Williams-Goss, Przemek Karnowski, Jordan Mathews, and Zach Collins all but guarantees that. Expect Saint Mary’s to capitalize and be the top dogs in the WCC for at least one season.

10. Four traditional powerhouses will battle it out for the national title in San Antonio, and Arizona will be one of them

Before the FBI complaint that shook up the sport in September, it seemed like college basketball’s defining preseason storyline was destined to be whether or not Sean Miller could get over the hump and finally get Arizona to a Final Four. With the Wildcats directly implicated in said complaint -- and assistant coach Book Richardson getting arrested as a result — that talk has sort of taken a backseat.

Even with the distractions, and even with an early season injury to Rawle Alkins, Arizona remains well-positioned to be one of the best teams in the country from start to finish this season. Allonzo Trier is tremendous, DeAndre Ayton has as much potential as any freshmen in the country, and Parker Jackson-Cartwright is the unheralded senior floor general every elite team with this type of makeup needs.

In addition to Arizona and Kansas, the other teams appearing most capable of making a run to San Antonio — Duke, Michigan State, Villanova, Kentucky — all appear to be familiar names as well. While squads like Wichita State, Miami, USC, and Saint Mary’s all deserve the preseason love they’re receiving, expect them to come up just short of achieving their ultimate goals.

11. This year’s Champions Classic will be the best ever

After all the offseason turmoil, college basketball needs a solid start to its 2017-18 season. It will get just that in the form of the Champions Classic, which will pit No. 1 Duke vs. No. 2 Michigan State and No. 4 Kansas and No. 5 Kentucky in a double-header from Chicago on Nov. 14.

Those back-to-back games should be enough to make the sports world temporarily forget about all the scandal and focus on how exciting the season ahead has the potential to be. Now if only college hoops could find a way to make December as enticing to the casual fan.