10 truths in college basketball at the start of conference season

fWe don’t really know anything about college basketball in the preseason. You can follow recruiting, concoct formulas to predict breakout players, and make projections based off history, but it still won’t help much. There’s simply too much annual attrition and too many variables to get a handle on this sport before you see it.

College basketball is always teaching us something new. In that sense, the non-conference portion of the schedule sets expectations for the rest of the year. And on the brink of conference play, the sport is ready for a reset.

Now that every team has played about 12 games, the national picture is starting to shape up. This is what we know — or think we know — about college basketball right now.

Duke is still the most talented team in the country pound for pound. Arizona and Michigan State aren’t far behind. But if those teams have the highest ceilings, Villanova is the group that’s already actualized.

The Wildcats are as balanced as it gets. They boast the country’s No. 2 offense and No. 8 defense. They have a superstar at point guard in Jalen Brunson, a stud two-way wing in Mikal Bridges, and an army of supplemental scorers. Right now, this looks like a team without any holes.

More than anything, Villanova appears to be built to last. It would be a true shock if this team gets upset in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament like they have two of the last three years. They were my preseason title pick and I’m standing by it.

No one saw this coming. In a season where the best freshmen were all supposed to be big men, a 6’2 guard who can’t even dunk has taken the country by storm with historic levels of production for Oklahoma.

Young currently leads college basketball in points per game and assists per game. He dropped 43 points on Oregon and had 22 assists in 29 minutes against Northwestern State. Big 12 play will provide its own unique test, but Young isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

Those Steph Curry comparisons are just getting started. Get familiar with Young now, because you’ll be hearing a lot about him in March and then again in June during NBA draft season.

Arizona State was picked to finish sixth in the Pac-12. Now the Sun Devils are one of three undefeated teams at 12-0 and have surged all the way up to No. 3 in the polls.

ASU has done it with a guard-heavy attack led by Tra Holder and Shannon Evans that looks like a college basketball version of Mike D’Antoni’s pace-and-space offense. Almost everything is coming from three point range or at the rim, and it’s made Arizona State a top-five offense in the country.

The job Bobby Hurley has done has been remarkable. The Sun Devils trip to Tucson to face Arizona on Dec. 30 is one of the most anticipated games of the season.

Speaking of, Arizona continues to feel like the most boom-or-bust team in the country. The Wildcats have an undeniable talent level. DeAndre Ayton is the most physically imposing big man in America. Allonzo Trier is a walking bucket. Few coaches have as much four- and five-star depth at their disposal as Sean Miller does.

There are some real problems, though. Defense is typically the backbone of any Miller team and this group only ranks No. 51 in the country in efficiency on that side of the ball. They haven’t gotten much out of their point guards. It’s a team that needs to share the ball and remember that Ayton is its best player.

Arizona was in crisis after its 0-3 run at the Battle 4 Atlantis, but they haven’t lost since. Rawle Alkins is back from injury and he’s cooking. Freshman wing Brandon Randolph is starting to step up. If the Wildcats play a team game, they can absolutely still go to the Final Four. It also feels like they could be primed for an early upset if that doesn’t happen.

There were plenty of reasons to doubt North Carolina this season coming off a national title. Justin Jackson bounced to the NBA. The starting front line of Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks graduated. The heir apparent in the front court, Tony Bradley, became the rare one-and-done under Roy Williams.

This isn’t the same UNC team, but the Tar Heels are proving that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Instead of dominating the offensive glass, Carolina can really shoot now. Joel Berry remains one of the best point guards in the country. Cameron Johnson has been an ideal replacement for Jackson. Maye has turned into a star and the three freshmen centers have all acquitted themselves well.

Yes, UNC took a bad loss to Wofford, but this team has still been impressive. Now that Berry and Johnson are both back from injury, this has the look of a team that’s only getting better.

It would have been easy to feel disappointed after last year’s freshmen class. From transcendent point guards like Lonzo Ball and De’Aaron Fox to star wings like Jayson Tatum and Josh Jackson, last year’s freshmen lived up to the hype in every sense. This year’s group was supposed to be good, but still a slight step down.

It turns out that this year’s freshmen are every bit as exciting. Marvin Bagley is putting up monster numbers for Duke. Mohamed Bamba is a shot blocking prodigy for Texas. Collin Sexton almost won a game 3-on-5 for Alabama. Ayton is a marvel at Arizona, Jaren Jackson Jr. will continue making waves into March for Michigan State and Kevin Knox has established himself as Kentucky’s best player. We already talked about the phenomenon that is Trae Young.

The one-and-done appears to be on its last legs, so enjoy it while it while you can. From the perspective of fandom, it’s going to be a bummer when college basketball doesn’t have the best young players in the world.

Kentucky is expected to win the SEC every year. That’s exactly what’s happened the last three seasons. The Wildcats very well could win it again this year, but it’s no guarantee. The SEC is better and deeper than it’s been in a long time.

Texas A&M has risen to a legitimate top-10 team behind one of the country’s premier front courts. Tennessee is one of the country’s great surprises. Florida has stumbled but still has plenty of talent. Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn, and Alabama will all be tough places to play.

Kentucky is good, but they feel vulnerable this year. That should make league play in the SEC more exciting than ever.

The Jayhawks have one of college basketball’s best point guards in Devonte’ Graham. They have shooters around the perimeter in Malik Newman, LaGerald Vick and Svi Mykhailiuk. There’s only one problem: Kansas doesn’t have any front court depth behind Udoka Azubuike. Fortunately, help is on the way.

That’s Silvio De Sousa, a five-star power forward originally in next year’s recruiting class who will become eligible for Kansas in the second semester. The hope is that another five-star big man, Billy Preston, will also be able to finally make his debut in Lawrence, too.

The Jayhawks have taken a pair of surprising losses to Washington and Arizona State, and barely outlasted Nebraska. But if there’s one thing you can always count on, it’s Bill Self during Big 12 play. Even with a fresh new batch of contenders, the Jayhawks have to be the favorite at the start of conference season.

It would have been foolish to expect Purdue to be firing on all cylinders out of the gates. Caleb Swanigan accounted for so much production last year that it was always going to take time for a veteran team to learn to play without him. That proved to be true as Purdue fell to Tennessee and Western Kentucky at the start of the season in the Battle 4 Atlantis.

Ever since, Purdue has been outstanding. They have wins over Arizona, Louisville, Maryland, Northwestern, and Butler already. The offense is up to No. 7 in the country and the defense ranks No. 12. Instead of one superstar, Purdue has a bunch of capable players. It starts with point guard Carsen Edwards, senior wing Vincent Edwards and 7’2 big man Isaac Haas.

If anyone can take down Michigan State in the Big Ten, it’s the Boilermakers.

The FBI scandal was supposed to hang over this entire season. In a sense, it has. You could point to it for Arizona’s early season struggles or USC stumbling out of the gate. You can bet it will be a focal point when Louisville plays Kentucky this weekend.

But in general, the main conversation around college basketball has been ... the basketball itself. And that’s a great thing. The early portion of the season has again set us up for another delightful March. We can’t wait to see what happens next.