Bracketology 2017: These teams are already locks for March Madness

With only three weeks to play before Selection Sunday, two dozen teams can already start making their NCAA plans. Let’s get started with the top 16 teams the Selection Committee announced last Saturday.

None of the names changed, but I’ve adjusted the order slightly to reflect this week’s results. Most prominently, you’ll see that Duke has jumped on line three due to its Wednesday win at Virginia. The Cavaliers fall to line four as a result. Thanks to wins over North Carolina and Virginia in the past eight days, you have to include the Blue Devils in any future discussion of potential No. 1 seeds.

Keep an eye out on Florida, as the Gators will be without center John Egbunu for the remainder of the season due to an ACL tear. Next week, UF hosts South Carolina and visits Kentucky in a pair of games that will help define the SEC race.

With the adjustments I made to seed lines three and four, the resulting regional assignments for the 16 protected seeds produce a more balanced bracket. In an ideal bracket, the overall seed numbers of the top four seeds in each region would total 34. This projection sees the East and South totals hit that number, with the Midwest at 33 and West at 35.

So that’s 16 of the 45 available slots (removing the 23 champions of likely one-bid conferences) locked up. Just eight more teams join them as secure with three weeks and two days to go.

This group includes the top three Big Ten teams (Purdue, Wisconsin and Maryland), the third teams out of the Big East (Creighton) and SEC (South Carolina), and the American Athletic Conference’s top two squads (Cincinnati and SMU). The Bluejays have been particularly impressive in how they’ve rebounded from Maurice Watson’s ACL tear.

After consecutive losses to Northwestern and Michigan, Wisconsin now ranks below both Purdue and Maryland in the race for a protected seed.

With 24 teams set as locks, that leaves just 21 places up for grabs. Five of those spots are nearly off the board as the teams in this group are inching closer to safety. On Wednesday, Northwestern had a chance to all but secure a first-ever NCAA bid, but the Wildcats were unable to follow up Sunday’s big win at Wisconsin with one over Maryland back in Evanston.

Melo Trimble wouldn’t stop scoring for the Terps, while Scottie Lindsey’s continued absence hampered the Cats’ offense. Later that night, Minnesota edged Indiana to pick up a fourth-straight win, a result that also managed to further damage the Hoosiers’ prospects.

Xavier slipped a bit after losing to Providence without Trevon Bluiett, out with an ankle injury. Saint Mary’s simply needs to avoid picking up multiple bad losses in its final three WCC games, while Oklahoma State has rocketed to near safety thanks to seven wins in its last eight.

Only 16 spots are left for the true bubble teams. The group of eight teams immediately above the cut line is a true mixed bag. Virginia Tech has helped its case immensely in the past week by defeating Virginia in Blacksburg and surviving Pitt on the road 48 hours later.

Miami topped fellow bubble team Georgia Tech on Wednesday, but the Hurricanes might rue their failure to hold on at Louisville on Saturday. USC had won five straight until Oregon snapped that streak last Saturday, but trips to both UCLA and Arizona loom. Earn a split, and the Trojans should be set.

Dayton and VCU look like the only two Atlantic 10 at-large hopes, thanks to Rhode Island‘s 10-point home loss to Fordham. Iowa State meets TCU, a squad that sits in the next group, in Ames on Saturday in yet another vital Big 12 bubble game.

Over in the Big Ten, Michigan State is higher than you’d expect because of a 4-5 record against the Top 50 and an 8-9 mark when extended to the Top 100. Meanwhile, consecutive wins over the Spartans, Indiana, and Wisconsin have brought Michigan back to the fold, ever closer to safety.

While the other Big 12 bubble teams are doing a decent job of winning, Kansas State has seen its fortunes fade by winning just once in its last six — against Baylor of all teams, on the road. California could really use a home win over Oregon next Wednesday to earn some breathing room, while the Seton Hall squad that defeated the Golden Bears in the Pearl Harbor Invitational followed up a questionable loss to St. John’s with a helpful win over Creighton.

The last four in are all teetering, however. Clemson jumps back in following a Tuesday win at Wake Forest. While the Tigers are now 9-10 against the Top 100 with that quartet of victories against the Top 50, they’ll have to improve upon a 4-9 ACC mark to remain.

Syracuse, 8-6 in the same conference, begins a four-game stretch that will dictate its fate on Sunday with the first of two against Georgia Tech. Marquette has only defeated DePaul in its last six, while Arkansas returns after picking up an impressive win at South Carolina on Wednesday night. The Hogs are now 8-5 against the Top 100 with three Top 50 wins.

One of those victories came against a Tennessee team that falls out of this projection after being blown out by Kentucky in a classic revenge game at Rupp Arena. A 13-12 record in games against Division I foes with just a single Top 50 win probably isn’t going to do it.

Fading Indiana, 1-6 in its last seven, missed a golden opportunity in Minneapolis last night. Georgia Tech is now just 1-3 in games against Division I opponents since beating Notre Dame, while Rhode Island might want more than just that Fordham loss back.

Keep an eye on Georgetown, especially if the Hoyas can win at Creighton on Sunday. Even though the Hoyas are just 14-12 and have a borderline RPI of 61, they also have three Top 50 wins and chances for more — they visit Seton Hall and host No. 1 overall Villanova, with that one set as the pair’s regular season finale.

This group of 10 teams features teams that either won’t go away (Georgia, thanks to a one-point win Saturday over Tennessee), could have put themselves in better position (Texas Tech might very well be in had it defeated Kansas last Saturday, while Utah needed better non-conference wins), are fading away (Ohio State), or making a late push (Providence).

Last night, Monmouth became the first team to guarantee itself at least an NIT bid, as the Hawks (23-5, 15-2) clinched the top seed in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament with a 93-75 win over Niagara. If only it had 2015-16 Monmouth’s at-large profile.

On that front, Wichita State, tied for the Missouri Valley lead with Illinois State, might be the best hope for the 23 single-bid conferences at this point. While the Shockers’ RPI ranking of 43rd isn’t great and neither is their 1-4 record against the Top 50, advanced metrics still love them.

Gregg Marshall’s team ranked 13th in KenPom and 16th in Sagarin at the time of writing. If Selection Committee members bring up these metrics in their discussions, like they did last season when both the Shockers and Vanderbilt earned bids largely due to non-RPI measures, Wichita State might just have a shot at sneaking in with a loss in the Arch Madness final a week before Selection Sunday.

And that day will be here before you know it. The first conference tournament action of the year takes place one week from Monday.