With a quartet of teams on either side of the cut line and a few other lurkers in action on Friday, expect some bubble mayhem with just two days left before the bracket is revealed.
Bracketology 2017: This is where the last 4 teams in and 1st 4 teams out stand
Before a busy day of hoops kicks into high gear, it’s time to take another close look at the teams nearest the NCAA tournament cut line.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) and Strength of Schedule (SOS) information is courtesy WarrenNolan.com and reflects only games against Division I opponents through Thursday, March 9.
Last Four In
Last Four Byes: Xavier, Marquette, Wake Forest, Providence
18-14; 10-8 SEC; RPI: 43; SOS: 2; non-conf. SOS: 1
On Thursday night, the Commodores used a big second half to push themselves past Texas A&M, earning a quarterfinal matchup against a Florida squad they’ve already defeated twice. If the Gators happen to avenge their two earlier losses, it still seems like Vanderbilt will become the first team to earn an at-large bid with 15 losses.
With a victory, however, the Commodores will improve upon their Top-50 record of 5-7 and their 10-13 Top-100 mark. While a 20-point loss to the 254th-ranked Missouri sticks out like a sore thumb, a single bad loss, particularly with just nine games scheduled against teams from outside of the Top 100, shouldn’t keep Vandy out.
Next game: Friday vs. Florida in the SEC quarterfinals
24-9; 10-8 Pac-12; RPI: 42; SOS: 70; non-conf. SOS: 159
With their frantic late rally against UCLA in last night’s final Pac-12 tournament quarterfinal falling short, the Trojans now must wait to see if its profile will be good enough. While USC defeated the Bruins and American Athletic champion SMU at home, a late swoon that featured four consecutive losses (before three straight wins over the woeful Washington schools) means Andy Enfield’s team isn’t assured of a second consecutive NCAA bid. A decent 10-6 record away from the Galen Center and the presence of a lone loss to a team from outside of the Top 100 should keep USC in, however.
Next game: The waiting game
18-14; 10-8 ACC; RPI: 86; SOS: 55; non-conf. SOS: 198
For the second season in a row, the Orange are the most polarizing team in bracketology. While the Orange own an enviable six Top-50 wins in 14 tries, thanks to Monmouth‘s return to that group, and a trio of Top-20 victories, none of them came away from the Carrier Dome. In fact, Syracuse’s road/neutral record dropped to 2-11 after Thursday’s ACC tournament loss to Miami.
Like last season, Syracuse went through a miserable December stretch that featured losses to Boston College, Connecticut, Georgetown, and St. John’s. Unlike 2016, however, Jim Boeheim wasn’t suspended during the swoon. That factor and the Orange’s lack of a non-conference win over a team likely in the field dampen Syracuse’s hopes. Remember that last season’s squad defeated both UConn and Texas A&M to win the Battle 4 Atlantis.
While an RPI of 86th would make the Orange the lowest-ranked team in that metric ever selected as an at-large (shattering their own record of 70th from last season), they’ll be in if quality wins matter as much the Committee seems to have indicated in February’s selection preview.
Next game: The waiting game
20-12; 8-10 Big 12; RPI: 55; SOS: 42; non-conf. SOS: 227
While the Wildcats entered the bracket this morning after defeating Baylor for a second time away from Manhattan, Kansas State’s awful non-conference schedule is just begging the Committee for an exclusion. The Wildcats’ best non-conference performance came in a loss to Maryland in Brooklyn, and their best actual win, over Colorado State in Denver, pales in comparison. January’s SEC/Big 12 Challenge didn’t even help matters — K-State lost its game at Tennessee by 12.
Even a win over West Virginia in tonight’s Big 12 tournament semifinals might not be enough, particularly if the active teams sitting behind the Wildcats (most of whom have better non-conference slates to present) keep winning.
Next game: Friday vs. West Virginia in the Big 12 semifinal
First Four Out
21-9; 13-5 Atlantic 10; RPI: 45; SOS: 63; non-conf. SOS: 26
If the Selection Committee considers injuries to Hassan Martin and Jarvis Garrett, the Rams might be safer than thought. But for a team that ranked in both polls in November, Rhode Island’s profile is disappointing. Thanks to a weaker Atlantic 10, the Rams are just 2-3 against the Top 50, even though their best victory, one over Cincinnati in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off, ended up being the best any conference member earned all year. On the plus side, thanks to Thursday’s results in Pittsburgh, Rhody’s Top 100 record suddenly jumped from 4-7 to 7-7. If the Rams can top St. Bonaventure in this afternoon’s Atlantic 10 tournament quarterfinals, they just might be able to leap into tomorrow’s projection.
Next game: Friday vs. St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals
21-11; 10-8 Pac-12; RPI: 54; SOS: 54, non-conf. SOS: 33
If the Golden Bears knock off Oregon in tonight’s first Pac-12 semifinal, they’ll double their Top 50 win total (currently one, against seven defeats). But a Princeton win in the inaugural Ivy League tournament might end up adding another, as the Tigers currently rank 53rd. Of course, with a win tonight, Cal will be able to add yet another in the final in Las Vegas, though a victory in that game would end all bubble talk.
Thanks to a 6-8 record away from Berkeley and 6-11 Top 100 record, a lack of bad losses is the best thing on the Golden Bears’ profile at the moment. And that’s why the need to keep on winning.
26-6; 15-1 MVC; RPI: 32; SOS: 122; non-conf. SOS: 148
As I expected, the Redbirds got passed after Wichita State pounded them in their rubber match in the Arch Madness final. Dan Muller’s squad still has just one Top-50 win in three tries and a 2-4 record against the Top 100. That simply might not be enough in a season where quality wins seem to be the Selection Committee’s currency. On the flip side, a 12-6 record away from Normal is a factor that will work in Illinois State’s favor.
Next game: The waiting game
17-14; 8-10 Big Ten; RPI: 63; SOS: 21; non-conf. SOS: 44
While the Fighting Illini are almost assuredly NIT bound after losing to Michigan in Thursday’s Big Ten tournament second round, they still rank ahead of an Indiana team that’s still alive in that event. Why? For starters, the Hoosiers injury issues mean they still have a bit of work to do to show that they resemble the team that knocked off Kansas and North Carolina earlier in the season. Plus, Illinois’s non-conference schedule, even with a win over VCU in Miami being the lone highlight, ranks higher than the Hoosiers’, which ranks 139th. There simply wasn’t much on Indiana’s slate beyond those top two wins and losses to Butler and Louisville.
Curiously, thanks to Thursday’s other results, Illinois’s profile took a double hit as their sweep of Northwestern lost some value. The Wildcats fell out of the Top 50 with their win over Rutgers! That result dropped the Illini’s Top 50 record from 5-9 to 3-9.
All in all, the future is brighter for Indiana, mostly because they’re still playing. With a win over Wisconsin in Friday’s quarterfinals, look for the Hoosiers to at least jump into this group. But looking at the past, Illinois has a slight edge this morning.
Next game: The waiting game
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