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Come Fan with UsWednesday, August 5, 2026

Bracketology 2017: Not a bad afternoon for the bubble

But there’s still danger around the corner in a pair of evening conference championship games and in the American semifinal

NCAA Basketball: Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament - Richmond vs VCU
NCAA Basketball: Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament - Richmond vs VCU
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Just about every result this afternoon went the way the few remaining bubble teams needed them to go, so the bid picture is largely the same as it was in my bracket from this morning.

In the early window, the Kentucky Wildcats held off the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Tournament’s opening semifinal in Nashville to snuff out the Tide’s shot at thievery. Meanwhile, the Rhode Island Rams moved one step closer to taking their bid out of the Selection Committee’s hands by routing the Davidson Wildcats in the first Atlantic 10 Tournament semifinal. Down in New Orleans, the Texas-Arlington Mavericks saw their slim at-large hopes end with a resounding thud — as they fell to the Texas State Bobcats in the Sun Belt Tournament semifinals.

That’s three hopefuls down, but two more departed in the late afternoon session. The American Athletic Tournament’s top seed, the SMU Mustangs, moved on to Sunday’s final by dispatching the UCF Knights. In the late game in Pittsburgh, the Virginia Commonwealth Rams needed overtime to defeat the Richmond Spiders, but the Atlantic 10 no longer has a true bid poacher playing in Sunday’s final. Note that while the Vanderbilt Commodores fell to the Arkansas Razorbacks in the second SEC semi, that shouldn’t impact Vandy’s place.

With those results in mind, the picture near the cut line looks similar to how it did Saturday morning. It feels like there are only seven teams alive for four spots heading into Selection Sunday. And just one of these teams, Rhode Island, controls its own fate.

Last Four IN: Rhode Island, Providence, USC, Syracuse
First Three OUT: Kansas State, Illinois State, Monmouth

There are still three games Saturday evening that could alter these seven teams’ circumstances. If the Nevada Wolf Pack and Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders lose in the Mountain West Tournament and Conference USA Tournament finals, respectively, they’ll join the race for one of the final at-larges. And if the Cincinnati Bearcats, two seed in the American tourney, drop their game with the Connecticut Huskies in Hartford, bubble teams will want to keep the antacid handy all the way up until Sunday afternoon.

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