NCAA tournament picks: Why 2017 isn’t the year a 16 seed beats a 1

No NCAA tournament No. 1 seed has ever lost a first-round game to a No. 16 seed. You probably know this already, because the 16s’ futility is one of the oldest and truest adages of March Madness. It’s right up there with your coworker picking a bunch of 12-5 upsets and that CBS March Madness jingle. (You know the one.)

There have been 128 games between Nos. 1 and 16 seeds, and they’ve all ended the same way. Just 15 were decided by single-digits, three by one possession, and one in overtime.

A few of the relatively close calls have come in recent times. Since 2012, Syracuse, Arizona, Kansas, and Gonzaga have won by between six and nine points.

But for the most part, it hasn’t been close. The average margin of victory for the No. 1 seeds in the last five years is 20.6 points, according to data from Sports-Reference. Margins have been as wide as 41, as slim as six.

It feels wrong to say anything will never happen. Donald Trump is president, and I was insistent that would never happen until the literal moment America decided it would.

But this isn’t going to happen. At least, it won’t any time soon.

The gap between No. 1 and No. 16 seeds is so substantial, and the stakes are so high, that it’s close to impossible for the underdogs to win. That comes more from recruiting than coaching. The sheer talent disparity between any No. 1 and any No. 16 is so big that the No. 1’s floor is almost always higher than the No. 16’s ceiling. Even if the superhero is at his weakest, he’s still winning a fight against a small child.

The matchups this year:

Villanova against Mount St. Mary’s
North Carolina against Texas Southern
Gonzaga against South Dakota State
Kansas against either UC Davis or NC Central

You’d want an army of 40-something percent three-point shooters, or you’d want ferocious offensive rebounders who could hold up against an elite front line. You’d want something.

None of this year’s 16 seeds has those things.

South Dakota State is a great foul shooting team, but I’ll bet the Jackrabbits don’t get to the line much against Gonzaga.

Texas Southern has a knack for getting to the foul line, but what can be done against Prairie View A&M and Arkansas Pine Bluff cannot be done against North Carolina.

Mount St. Mary’s usually forces lots of turnovers on defense, but it mostly didn’t against power-conference opponents.

Mike Daum is a sophomore forward for the Jackrabbits, and he’s one of the best players in college basketball. The Summit League’s player of the year is a 41 percent three-point marksman who also clicks at 57 percent inside the arc and 88 percent at the line. He’s a good rebounder, and he takes tons of shots.

What Daum’s done down the stretch is incredible. He hasn’t scored fewer than 16 points in a game since Jan. 18. He’s poured in 37, 18, 33, 30, 51, 26, 22, 26, 38, 16, 33, 29, and 42 points in his last 13 games. Dirk Nowitzki may well go to bed at night while staring at a Mike Daum poster. I wouldn’t rule it out.

There’s no minimizing what Daum’s done. He will get his against Gonzaga. But the rest of his team is bad. He had an efficient 20 in a game against Wichita State in December, and his team lost by 22. The Shockers are great, and Gonzaga is a lot better.

If it ever happens, it’ll be because of one outrageously great player on an otherwise not-bad team, or it’ll be because one team’s shooting goes through the roof.

There are some good qualities about this year’s 16th seeds. But nobody has enough of those qualities to actually beat Goliath. And one awesome player on South Dakota State won’t do it. Gonzaga has about five of them.

I already got some First Four games wrong, which is cool.

You can follow the tournament with our live bracket, updated all March and into April.