Bracketology 2017: Wichita State’s auto-bid shrinks the bubble again

As promised at the end of my last projection, I took advantage of a thinner Sunday schedule to do a complete review of each team’s profile. This task didn’t result in any truly earth-shattering changes, though fans of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons will likely be happy to see their team above the Last Four Byes group.

After Sunday’s play, it’s time to welcome three new auto bid winners — the Winthrop Eagles (Big South), Wichita State Shockers (Missouri Valley), and Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (Atlantic Sun). The Shockers’ win eliminated any bubble drama for them, but the vanquished Illinois State Redbirds must now wait a week. Plus, thanks to attrition in their respective tournaments, the Iona Gaels out of the Metro Atlantic and the Horizon League’s Northern Kentucky Norse hop into the bracket as the highest seeds remaining in those events. The Gaels can clinch a place by winning the MAAC final this evening, one of three championship games on the schedule.

Following today’s full bracket and rundown, you can check out capsules on the eight teams surrounding the cut line, including Illinois State.

Now, to take a closer look at the quartet of teams on either side of the cut line.

Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) and Strength of Schedule (SOS) information from WarrenNolan.com and is accurate through games completed on the evening of March 5, 2017.

Last Four Byes: VCU Rams, Providence Friars, Seton Hall Pirates, USC Trojans

19-12; 9-9 Big East; RPI: 34; SOS: 10; non-conf. SOS: 17

With decent records against the RPI Top 50 (3-8) and Top 100 (8-11) and just a single loss to a team outside of the Top 100 (103rd-ranked Colorado), the Musketeers would normally be safe. However, since losing Edmond Sumner to a knee injury, they’ve gone just 4-6, including a six-game losing streak that Xavier just ended on Saturday by winning at DePaul. Beat the Blue Demons again on Wednesday and the Musketeers should be safe, even with a Thursday loss to Butler. But given Xavier’s late struggles and reduced potential, its seeding could suffer.

Next game: Wednesday vs. DePaul in the Big East First Round

18-13; 10-8 ACC; RPI: 81; SOS: 56; non-conf. SOS: 195

On New Year’s Day, the Orange looked to be doomed to a postseason-free future, thanks to not only losing their biggest non-conference games — against South Carolina (in Brooklyn no less) and at Wisconsin — but also ones that ended up looking rather embarrassing (UConn, Georgetown, St. John’s and, in their ACC opener, Boston College). But this season’s vintage ACC offered Syracuse plenty of opportunities — and Jim Boeheim’s squad took advantage. The Orange now own five Top 40 wins, with three of those coming against Top 20 opposition (Duke, Florida State, and Virginia).

But all of those victories came at the Carrier Dome, which brings me to one of the two other major red flags on Syracuse’s profile (besides those heinous losses) — the Orange have won just twice away from home in 12 tries. Therefore, wins in Brooklyn will greatly help their case. The other red flag is that RPI ranking of 81st, which would break the record for worst RPI for an at-large team set by ... last year’s Syracuse team, which ranked 70th.

Next game: Wednesday vs. Miami in the ACC Second Round

17-14; 10-8 SEC; RPI: 44; SOS: 2; non-conf. SOS: 1

Speaking of breaking records, 14 is the number the Commodores might need to challenge to make history. That’s because no team has ever earned an at-large bid with more than 14 losses. But thanks to the Commodores’ schedule rankings, they’ll have a great chance of breaking through if they drop their 15th game of the season during the SEC tournament. That being said, it’s more likely that Vanderbilt will be able to absorb a defeat to Florida (a team they swept during the regular season) in the quarterfinals or Arkansas (whom the Commodores split with) in the semifinals than Texas A&M in the first round.

Currently, Vandy is 5-7 against the Top 50 and 10-13 against the Top 100. The Commodores have also played just eight games against teams ranked 101st or worst, but their most damaging loss came against the lowest-ranked squad they faced, a 72-52 pounding by the 263rd-ranked Missouri.

Next game: Thursday vs. Texas A&M in the SEC Second Round

26-6; 15-1 MVC; RPI: 30; SOS: 123; non-conf. SOS: 140

Heading into Sunday’s Arch Madness final, I felt reasonably confident that the Redbirds would make the field win or lose. Then Wichita State pounded them for the second straight time, as the Shockers followed the 86-45 bashing they handed Illinois State at Koch Arena with a 71-51 rout in St. Louis. That leaves Dan Muller’s squad with a sterling RPI ranking and just one Top 50 win in three tries and a 2-4 record against the Top 100. In a season where the Selection Committee seems to be emphasizing quality wins, that’s bad news. And with virtually all of the teams chasing the Redbirds down playing this week, don’t expect Illinois State to be in this position when the real bracket comes out.

Next game: None

17-13; 8-10 Big Ten; RPI: 57; SOS: 23; non-conf. SOS: 40

After the Fighting Illini lost at Rutgers on Saturday, Twitter exploded with the declaration that they were definitely NIT bound. Not so fast. Incredibly, that loss in Piscataway was Illinois’s first against a team ranked outside of the Top 100. Yes, Penn State swept the Illini, but the Nittany Lions sit at 99th for the moment. Thus, Illinois currently sits at 5-8 against the Top 50 (highlighted by a sweep of Northwestern and a decent victory over VCU in Miami) and 11-12 against the Top 100.

But for John Groce’s team to have a legitimate shot, it will have to win a rubber match with Michigan in the Big Ten tournament at a minimum and hope that Penn State can stay in the Top 100 by defeating Nebraska in Wednesday’s first round.

Next game: Thursday vs. Michigan in the Big Ten Second Round

21-9; 13-5 Atlantic 10; RPI: 42; SOS: 64; non-conf. SOS: 25

The Rams, a Top 25 team in both preseason polls, underperformed this season, thanks in part to injuries to Hassan Martin and Jarvis Garrett. And the Selection Committee should give Dan Hurley’s squad some consideration for those absences. Even so, Rhode Island’s profile remains disappointing. Thanks to the Atlantic 10 being down this season, quality win opportunities ended up being few and far between. The Rams are just 2-3 against the Top 50, even though their top victory, one over Cincinnati in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off, ended up being the best one any conference member earned all season. When expanded to the Top 100, Rhody’s 4-7 mark looks even less inspiring. A run to the Atlantic 10 tournament final in Pittsburgh, which would likely result in victories over St. Bonaventure and top-seeded Dayton, might be a necessity for the Rams to approach the hype that surrounded them in November.

Next game: Friday vs. TBD in the Atlantic 10 Quarterfinals

18-13; 10-8 Big Ten; RPI: 74; SOS: 47; non-conf. SOS: 145

I didn’t expect to be writing about the Hawkeyes with less than a week to go before Selection Sunday, but thanks consecutive road wins at Maryland and Wisconsin, here we are. Much like Syracuse, few had much hope for Iowa after some early season struggles, though a home loss to Omaha and a neutral-site setback against Memphis pale in comparison to the Orange’s many defeats. Plus, a surprising Dec. 8 home win over Iowa State might have given us a preview of what this team was ultimately capable of.

A 4-7 record away from Carver-Hawkeye means the Hawkeyes will probably need to pick up a few wins in Washington to have a legit chance at selection, but considering literally half of those road wins came in the last 10 days, that’s a real possibility. A sweep at the hands of Illinois could also be problematic if it comes down to a head-to-head comparison of the two teams. (Though Iowa managed to beat Rutgers twice.)

Next game: Thursday vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Second Round

19-12; 8-10 Big 12; RPI: 58; SOS: 54; non-conf. SOS: 226

The strength of the Big 12 is the main thing keeping the Wildcats alive at this point, with a win at Baylor standing out in particular. But K-State’s weak non-conference schedule ultimately works against it. Yes, they lost by one to Maryland in Brooklyn, but their best actual win came over 71st-ranked Colorado State in Denver. Bruce Weber’s team couldn’t even take advantage of the late opportunity provided by the SEC/Big 12 Challenge — K-State was assigned a road game at then-competitive Tennessee, which it promptly lost by 12.

If the Wildcats can beat Baylor again on Thursday, they’ll be back in the hunt. However, they just might need to top West Virginia in Friday’s semifinals to stand a real chance.

Next game: Thursday vs. Baylor in the Big 12 Quarterfinals

Next Four Out: California, Georgia Tech, Monmouth, Ole Miss

The Monmouth Hawks appear here following their Sunday loss to Siena in the MAAC semifinals. However, the 46th-ranked team in the RPI table probably won’t get the look it did last season. Monmouth couldn’t pick up the name wins it earned in 2015-16, so the Hawks are currently 0-2 against the Top 50 and 3-3 against the Top 100.

Barring some insanity in the West Coast Conference semifinals, expect minimal changes in tomorrow’s bracket, other than the addition of three new auto bid holders.