Bracketology 2017: Illinois’ bubble finally pops and John Groce’s future is up in the air

This afternoon’s first Big Ten Tournament Second Round game was a major opportunity for the Illinois Fighting Illini, still in the hunt for an at-large even after a disappointing Saturday loss at Rutgers, the Big Ten’s worst squad. The Illini were even set to take on a Michigan Wolverines squad that surely had to be shaken after its original plane was blown off the runway on Wednesday afternoon. But even arriving in Washington, D.C. mere hours before a tip that was eventually delayed by 28 minutes, the Wolverines, wearing practice gear since their game uniforms weren’t available, had no interest in playing the victim, as they bashed the Illini by a 75-55 score.

Now, Illinois still ranks 63rd in the RPI, so the Selection Committee will debate its merits over the weekend. But a 3-9 record against Top 50 squads and consecutive closing losses, including that one to Rutgers, mean John Groce’s team is probably heading to the NIT and the coach’s future is very much up in the air.

The Kansas State Wildcats and Iowa Hawkeyes jump to the top of the First Four Out queue in anticipation of their evening tips. The Wildcats will likely return to my projected field if they can defeat the Baylor Bears for a second time. As for the Hawkeyes, a win over the Indiana Hoosiers won’t be enough, but that result would set up a Friday night quarterfinal with the Wisconsin Badgers, a team Iowa defeated in Madison just one week ago.

Last Four Byes: Marquette, VCU, Providence, USC
Last Four IN: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Illinois State

Xavier (facing Big East Tournament two seed Butler), Vanderbilt (taking on Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament’s 7-vs.-10 game), Providence (aiming for a second win over Creighton at Madison Square Garden) and USC (in search of a rubber match victory over UCLA in the Pac-12 Tournament) are all in action Thursday night. Earlier, Seton Hall got itself out of the Last Four Byes group by topping Marquette, which replaces the Pirates. Meanwhile, Michigan State eliminated its own bubble worries by stomping Penn State.

First Four OUT: Kansas State, Rhode Island, Iowa, California
Next Four Out: TCU, Illinois, Monmouth, Ole Miss

But TCU might end up being Thursday’s biggest winner when all is said and done. The Horned Frogs stunned Kansas at its second home of Kansas City to book a place in Friday’s Big 12 Tournament semifinals. Jamie Dixon’s team now clocks in with an RPI of 65, but thanks to a 3-10 record against the RPI Top 50 and three sub-100 losses, the 14-loss Frogs might need to reach Saturday’s final to get a real look.

Rhode Island, which opens Atlantic 10 Tournament play in tomorrow’s quarterfinals, and idle Monmouth are the only two teams out of these eight who won’t take the court at some point Thursday. Cal is playing Utah in the second Pac-12 game of the day now. Later, Indiana can buy itself some time by defeating Iowa, but a victory over Missouri won’t do much to help Ole Miss. Georgia, another team under consideration, held off Tennessee to set up a Friday SEC quarterfinal with a Kentucky team it has played close twice.

Every team on this list must cheer for Conference USA Tournament top seed Middle Tennessee to cut down the nets in Birmingham on Saturday, particularly Vandy and Ole Miss, who both lost to the Blue Raiders. Kermit Davis’s squad cleared its first hurdle earlier by defeating the UTSA Roadrunners, 86-70.

I’ll be back later Thursday with a fresh look at where things stand heading into Friday.