Bracketology 2018: These are the 16 locks for the NCAA tournament

Exactly one week ago, this series focused on the annual three-day period when those populating the NCAA Tournament bubble struggle with adversity. Since then, it’s been the teams at the top of the bracket that have hit the early February doldrums. Over the weekend, losses by the Duke Blue Devils and Kansas Jayhawks and a gutsy overtime win for the Xavier Musketeers helped to reshape the bracket’s top line.

However, my Tuesday assertion that three of the four No. 1 seeds were all but set took a serious hit on Wednesday night. To start the evening, the then-No. 1 overall seeded Villanova Wildcats became the St. John’s Red Storm’s second straight top-five victim. A couple of hours later, the Ohio State Buckeyes blew the Big Ten title race wide open by stunning the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette.

And things could have been even worse for the quartet — Xavier again needed overtime on Tuesday night, this time to defeat the Butler Bulldogs in Indianapolis, while the Virginia Cavaliers required a strong second-half performance to defeat the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee. However, both pulled through, results that pushed the Musketeers past Purdue into the third spot in the top line and the 23-1 Cavaliers to the No. 1 spot overall in today’s check-in.

Note: Quality win data (the ratio in parentheses, see Jan. 26 post for more info) and RPI information are courtesy WarrenNolan.com and accurate as of the morning of Feb. 9, 2018.

Since we are just one month away from Selection Sunday, it’s time to hand out our first locks of the 2017-18 season. In bracketology, our definition of a “lock” is a “team that could lose every game between now and Selection Sunday and still make the field.” Looking at the group above, all of these teams are well-placed with four weeks to go, even if the number of quality wins varies. But don’t expect the lock group for today to be any larger.

With Virginia the new No. 1 overall seed, the South region now leads the way. And with Xavier passing Purdue, the Musketeers anchor the Midwest region, while the Boilers are shipped out West. There are some intriguing matchups in these regions — viewing a Virginia-Auburn South regional final might require protective equipment, while Purdue would surely aim to avenge a Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal loss to the Tennessee Volunteers in the projected West final here.

Of course for that to happen, the Boilermakers might need to shut down Trae Young and the Oklahoma Sooners in the regional semifinals, while the Vols would need to overcome a North Carolina Tar Heels team they lost in Knoxville in December at the same stage.

The two East regional semifinals — Villanova-West Virginia and Clemson-Cincinnati — could be a fascinating doubleheader, while Xavier would have to get through college basketball royalty to reach its first Final Four out of the Midwest. As for the South, it’s truly the surprise region. Back in November, did you think that any member of that quartet would be in this position on Feb. 9?

All times Eastern.

Butler at Villanova, Saturday 12 p.m. (Fox)
Oklahoma State at West Virginia, Saturday 12 p.m. (ESPN)
Kansas at Baylor, Saturday 2 p.m. (CBS)
Oklahoma at Iowa State, Saturday 2 p.m. (ESPN)
Xavier at Creighton, Saturday 2:30 p.m. (Fox)
Auburn at Georgia, Saturday 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Purdue at Michigan State, Saturday 4 p.m. (ESPN)
Iowa at Ohio State, Saturday 6 p.m. (BTN)
Virginia Tech at Virginia, Saturday 6:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Cincinnati at SMU, Sunday 4 p.m. (ESPN)
Duke at Georgia Tech, Sunday 6 p.m. (ESPN)
Notre Dame at North Carolina, Monday 7 p.m. (ESPN)

While the weekend (and Monday, for that matter) features plenty of tests for the lead pack, with many of those games on the road, I again am most interested in seeing who the Selection Committee has in its own top 16 on Sunday (12 p.m. ET, CBS). You can expect Tuesday’s bracket to be built off this sneak peek:

None of these teams has yet locked up a place, not even the Kentucky Wildcats and Wichita State Shockers, who both have Group 1 and Group 2 win totals of 10, comparable to several members of the top 16. However, many of these teams are close, and getting through this weekend will help. If you look at the list of games below, you’ll notice the majority of teams in this group face the dreaded trap game over the next three days.

To start your Saturday afternoon, the Florida Gators visit the South Carolina Gamecocks looking to both split the season series and win consecutive games for the first time since Jan. 17 and 20. Later, the Texas A&M Aggies, whose Wednesday win at Auburn was their third straight, can further illustrate that they’ve gotten back on track by knocking off Kentucky. And how’s this for a nightcap — the Saint Mary’s Gaels can all but sew up the WCC regular season title by sweeping the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Florida at South Carolina, Saturday 12 p.m. (CBS)
Miami at Boston College, Saturday 2 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3)
Florida State at Notre Dame, Saturday 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Seton Hall at Georgetown, Saturday 4 p.m. (CBSSN)
Kentucky at Texas A&M, Saturday 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s, Saturday 10 p.m. (ESPN2)

Thanks to a trio of consecutive victories, including two on the road, the Missouri Tigers have earned a bit more breathing room. But Saturday offers up the challenge of a rematch against a Mississippi State Bulldogs squad that’s quietly clawed its way toward the cut line — and which also defeated Cuonzo Martin’s team by 12 in Starkville.

In other key games over the weekend, the Alabama Crimson Tide can give their profile a boost by topping surging Tennessee at home. Butler, which has already defeated Villanova once, can hand the Wildcats a second straight home defeat. Meanwhile, in the Big 12, the Texas Longhorns and TCU Horned Frogs face a crucial 72 hours for their individual hopes, starting with their Saturday meeting in Fort Worth.

The Arkansas Razorbacks, Michigan Wolverines and Providence Friars, on the other hand, all face opposition they cannot afford to lose to — and only the Friars get their potential trap opponent at home.

Mississippi State at Missouri, Saturday 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Texas at TCU, Saturday 2 p.m. (ESPNU)
DePaul at Providence, Saturday 4 p.m. (FSN)
Tennessee at Alabama, Saturday 6 p.m. (SEC Network)
Vanderbilt at Arkansas, Saturday 8:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Michigan at Wisconsin, Sunday 1 p.m. (CBS)
Baylor at Texas, Monday 9 p.m. (ESPN)
TCU at West Virginia, Monday 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

There are four new teams in today’s update. Three arrive as new at-larges — the Marquette Golden Eagles, who swept the Seton Hall Pirates Wednesday; the Syracuse Orange, thanks to Monday’s win over the Louisville Cardinals; and the UCLA Bruins, who doubled their season total of road wins by impressively handling the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson on Thursday night.

All three face potential potholes over the weekend. On Saturday, the Golden Eagles travel to New York to face resurgent St. John’s, while the Bruins visit the Arizona State Sun Devils — who last swept a conference weekend in 2015. Then on Sunday, the Orange host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons squad that handed them their second-worst loss (by RPI anyway) of the year.

On the flip side, the Kansas State Wildcats, North Carolina State Wolfpack, St. Bonaventure Bonnies and Virginia Tech Hokies depart. The Bonnies are the first team out, squeezed out by a surprise auto bid out of the Mountain West. Thanks to the Nevada Wolf Pack’s 86-78 home loss to the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels on Wednesday night, the Boise State Broncos now have a half-game lead over the Pack in the league race — and the conference’s auto bid for today.

While the Wolf Pack are still in as an at-large, their place is tenuous thanks to the lisfranc sprain forward Caleb Martin suffered earlier this week. That’s an injury that could keep Martin, Nevada’s leading scorer (19.8 ppg), out for the rest of the season. If Nevada struggles without him, it could fade out of the at-large picture. The Wolf Pack next hosts the San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday.

As for the three power conference departures, their non-conference schedule strengths of 289th (N.C. State), 306th (Virginia Tech) and 326th (Kansas State) could create real problems for them in the committee room. Patrick Stevens wrote about their specific issues over at The Washington Post in late January. (More philosophically, Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News thinks the whole topic should be shelved earlier this week.)

All arguments aside, if the committee still treats November and December as it has over its history, the dossiers of the Wolfpack, Hokies, and Wildcats might compare unfavorably to those of Temple (10th in non-conference SOS), Syracuse (22nd), USC (33rd), Washington (43rd), and St. Bonaventure (60th), to name just a few.

Marquette at St. John’s, Saturday 12 p.m. (FSN)
North Carolina at North Carolina State, Saturday 2 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3)
UCLA at Arizona State, Saturday 7 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
San Diego State at Nevada, Saturday 8 p.m. (ESPN2)
Texas Tech at Kansas State, Saturday 8 p.m. (ESPNU)
Boise State at Utah State, Saturday 9 p.m. (AT&T Sportsnet/MWN)
Washington at Oregon State, Saturday 10:15 p.m. (ESPN2)
USC at Arizona, Saturday 10:15 p.m. (ESPN) UCF at Memphis, Sunday 4 p.m. (CBSSN)
Wake Forest at Syracuse, Sunday 1:30 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3)
Louisville at Pitt, Sunday 1:30 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3)
Tulane at Houston, Sunday 6 p.m. (ESPNU)

Both the Oregon Ducks, who held the Washington Huskies to 40 points in Eugene, and the Utah Utes, who all but burst the Stanford Cardinal’s bubble with a 15-point win in Salt Lake City, kept themselves in the hunt on Thursday night. However, it’s the Penn State Nittany Lions, home winners over the Maryland Terrapins on Wednesday, who look to be the fringe’s biggest winner of the week.

If the Selection Committee considers predictive analytics (where Penn State consistently ranks in the top 50) more strongly than results-based ones (PSU’s RPI is 86th, enough said), the 17-9 Nittany Lions’ hopes could receive a nice boost. However, with four Group 1 win possibilities still out there, defeating the Terps gave Pat Chambers’ squad hope that they can make a late push. They just can’t afford a loss to woeful Illinois Fighting Illini on Sunday.

Northwestern at Maryland, Saturday 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
Ole Miss at LSU, Saturday 4 p.m. (ESPNU)
Rutgers at Nebraska, Saturday 4 p.m. (BTN)
Cal at Utah, Saturday 9:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
Stanford at Colorado, Sunday 4 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
Penn State at Illinois, Sunday 7 p.m. (BTN)
Washington State at Oregon, Sunday 8 p.m. (ESPNU)

With Boise State’s entry into the field, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders earn a promotion to the 11 seed line for today. Other than the Broncos’ inclusion, this group was unusually stable this week, with no other changes from Tuesday’s bracket.

In my next full projection on Tuesday, I’ll take a look at which teams still have a chance to finish their conference seasons with a perfect record as we head into the final stretch.