The 12 teams that can actually win the 2018 NCAA tournament

There’s a lot of chaos that ensures between the opening round of the NCAA Tournament until the finish, but the champion is rarely ever a complete surprise. Last year’s North Carolina team was the No. 1 seed overall, the Villanova team before them was a No. 2 seed, and in 2015, No. 1 seed Duke won it all.

It takes more than luck to advance that far.

What those champions had, similar to most before them (2014 UConn was unexplainable), was a team dedicated to efficiency on both sides of the floor. Yes, defense wins champions, but not when it’s coupled with a mediocre offense. The same is true in reverse.

We’ll take a look at the future champions and posers hiding in plain sight.

Here’s a breakdown of the past 15 year’s tournament winners by KenPom efficiency ranking.

(Adjusted offense estimates points scored per 100 possessions against an average team, and adjusted defense estimates points allowed).

See a pattern?

12 out of these 15 champions finished with their offensive and defensive efficiencies inside the top 14 in the nation. These teams were all really balanced!

Is this way of scouting champions perfect? No, take a look at both UConn teams and Syracuse. Some teams just click at the right time. But typically, we’ve seen teams win because they’re complete on both ends.

Pretty simple if you think about it.

Three teams rank inside the top 17 in efficiency on both ends: Duke, Michigan State and Gonzaga.

KenPom ranks Duke as the No. 3 overall team in the country in adjusted efficiency with second-best offense and 11th-best defense. That’s a remarkable shift considering how mediocre the Blue Devils’ defense was just weeks ago. Duke’s move to a full-time 2-3 zone is paying major dividends. They also have real star power behind lottery-bound picks Wendell Carter and Marvin Bagley.

The path: Duke’s path is TOUGH. The Blue Devils might have to face Trae Young in the round of 32, Michigan State in the Sweet 16 and Kansas in the Elite Eight. Those top three seeds in the Midwest are brutal.

Michigan State was one of the favorites to start the season, and with two studs — Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson Jr. — and a ton of depth, it’s easy to see how. The Spartans have only lost four times, one of which came against Duke in Nov., and have wins over a number of tournament teams.

The path: The Midwest is so hard. MSU would have to go through Duke and Kansas to reach San Antonio.

Don’t sleep on Gonzaga either, even though they’re without their two stars from a year ago, Zach Collins and Nigel Williams-Goss. The ‘Zags haven’t had a difficult schedule, but have blown out weaker opponents. Of their four losses, two were by one possession, and an third came in double overtime to Florida.

The path: As a No. 4 seed, the ‘Zags have a pretty favorable path in the West. Gonzaga would have to face top-seeded Xavier in the Sweet 16, considered the weakest of the No. 1 seeds. Michigan and UNC are both talented in the bottom half of the region, but the ‘Zags have the goods to potentially make another Final Four run.

Let’s take this region by region at this point.

The ‘Hoos have been the best team in college basketball from start to finish. If you include their title run the ACC Tournament, Virginia won 20 out of 21 games in ACC play this year, widely considered to be the toughest conference in America. Not bad for a team picked to finish sixth in the preseason.

Virginia has the No. 1 defense in the country, and checks in at No. 21 on offense. UVA plays the slowest tempo in college basketball: out of 351 DI teams, Virginia ranks last in pace.

The Wildcats have Deandre Ayton, which means they have a chance. Ayton is the most physically dominant player in the country, a 7’1, 250-pound center with a jarring combination of quickness and strength. He averaged 20.3 points and 11.5 rebounds per game during the season, and those numbers seem to undersell his impact.

Arizona has another primary scoring option in junior shooting guard Allonzo Trier, who averages over 18 points per game. Arizona’s weaknesses are point guard play and three-point shooting. The Wildcats would have to potentially face Kentucky in the round of 32 and Virginia in the Sweet 16. Ouch.

The Vols might have been a trendy pick in any other region. Still, as Virginia, Arizona and Kentucky beat up each other in the top half of the region, Tennessee has a manageable path to the Elite Eight, potentially facing Miami and Cincinnati before the Elite Eight.

The Musketeers might be considered the weakest No. 1 seed, but you can also make the case they have the easiest path of any team on the top line to reach the Final Four. Xavier made the Elite Eight as a No. 11 seed last season, and have most of their key pieces back. Trevon Bluiett was already a March Madness star once before and is capable of doing it again.

The Heels lost their three starters in the front court from last season’s national champs. This team trades size for shooting. If Kenny Williams, Cameron Johnson and Luke Maye can get hot from deep, UNC can beat anyone. Don’t forget about Joel Berry II, either. The senior point guard was the Most Outstanding Player for last year’s champs.

Michigan is the hottest team in college hoops as winners of nine straight. The Wolverines have two quality wings in Charles Matthews and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and a stretch five in Moritz Wagner. The Wolverines also have the No. 5 defense in the country — which is a big difference from John Beilein’s typical offense-first teams. Point guard is the question mark.

The Wildcats were Ricky O’Donnell’s championship pick in his instant bracket predictions. ‘Nova has the No. 1 offense in the country and No. 22 defense, basically the inverse of Virginia. Read the title picks post for why Villanova is built for March.

The Red Raiders have athletes everywhere, a great senior point guard in Keenan Evans and an elite defense. Their path isn’t all that difficult with a vulnerable Purdue team as their potential Sweet 16 opponent. Villanova-Texas Tech would be a great contrast of styles in the Elite Eight.

We already touched on Duke and Michigan State, but not the region’s No. 1 seed.

The Jayhawks have a great senior point guard in Devonte Graham and shooters everywhere (Malik Newman, Lagerald Vick, Svi Mykhailiuk). Udoka Azubuike is the wildcard. The sophomore big man is unstoppable on the inside but missed the Big 12 tournament with a knee injury.