4 March Madness upset picks to make against the spread

With the Big Dance officially upon us thanks to the First Four, there’s no reason to expect anything but madness in the first couple of days of the tournament.

Since 2009, No. 12 and 11 seeds have gone 23-12 and 22-14, respectively, against the spread. Since 2013, No. 13 seeds are 8-8 in the same fashion. Let’s dig into some teams who could cause a scare against some major conference programs, along with others who’ll generate damage in this year’s bracket.

Aside from Ramblers’ coach Porter Moser constructing a dynamic offense, his unit also ranks 24th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Ben Richardson — the Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year — will be crucial in slowing down Hurricanes’ freshman guard Lonnie Walker, who paces their attack with 11.5 points per game while shooting 41.5 percent from the field. In the frontcourt, Miami is 14-2 this season when forward Dewan Huell notches at least 11 points, but Loyola freshman Cameron Krutwig (10.5 points per game, 6.5 rebounds per game) is no slouch at either end of the court.

With Vegas expecting this matchup to come down to the wire, the Hurricanes place 324th in the nation in free-throw percentage (66.3 percent). If Ramblers’ wings Donte Ingram (11.6 points per game) and Marques Townes (11.2 points per game) space the floor as well as they have all season, expect them to cover and pull off the upset.

In a battle of Wildcats on the court, the duel of philosophies between Davidson coach Bob McKillop and Kentucky coach John Calipari will be just as intriguing. McKillop is in his 28th season with Davidson, leading the school to the NCAA tournament for the 10th time; it’s lost in the first round in seven of its previous nine trips to March Madness. Nevertheless, the Wildcats sit 18th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and boast the seventh-lowest turnover rate.

Kentucky could struggle sticking with stretch-four Peyton Aldridge (21.5 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game), who’s surrounded by six players with at least a 37.7 percent clip from three as well. Although Calipari’s bunch places third in the country in three-point field goal defense (29.9 percent), just 21.3 percent of their offense has come from behind the arc, which is the 340th-lowest rate around. Davidson should at least cover if it controls the pace.

Not only is the Jackrabbits’ 6’9, 250-pound Mike Daum-inator (23.8 points per game, 10.4 rebounts per game) a matchup nightmare, but he’s one of the most dominant players in the sport. The junior ranks third in shot percentage (36.4 percent) and ninth in both possession percentage (33.7 percent) and defensive rebounding rate (29.2 percent).

The Buckeyes don’t have the personnel to defend him, either. Daum is more athletic than the 6’9, 270-pound Kaleb Wessen and lengthier than the 6’7, 235-pound Keita Bates-Diop, who won the Big Ten Player of the Year award. Despite Ohio State’s 17th-best adjusted defensive efficiency, Daum and Co. boast the lowest turnover rate in the nation. On the flip side, the Buckeyes are 347th in that department, lacking a sound ball-handler down the stretch. Bates-Diop racked up a critical turnover in the final minute against Penn State in their lone Big Ten tournament game, leading to a one-point loss. The Jackrabbits’ shooting touch from deep (39.2 percent, 26th) and at the line (76.4 percent, 32nd) gives them quality chance to keep things close.

Basketball fans at all levels recall Mike D’Antonio’s run-and-gun offense with the Steve Nash-led Phoenix Suns and the Houston Rockets. His brother Dan D’Antonio operates a similar system with the Thundering Herd, as Marshall owns the third-lowest average possession length in the country (14.3 seconds). While his team doesn’t burn opponents on threes (35.6 percent, 138th), 36.1 percent of its offense still comes from that vicinity. Individually, guards Jon Elmore (22.8 points per game) and C.J. Burks (20.5 points per game) are high volume scorers who can keep pace with the Shockers, who boast the fourth-best adjusted offensive efficiency.

Wichita State has a clear advantage on the glass, ranking 10th in offensive rebounding rate and 11th in defensive rebounding rate; D’Antonio’s group sits 328th and 299th in those categories, respectively. Similar to South Dakota State, though, the Thunder Herd’s efficiency from two-point territory (56.1 percent, 15th) and via free throws (76.6 percent, 28th) puts them in position to cover.