Marshall used controlled chaos to shock Wichita State for its first ever NCAA tournament win

The 13th-seeded Marshall Thundering Herd beat No. 4 Wichita State for the program’s first NCAA tournament victory ever on Friday, 81-75. The Herd join Buffalo as the second No. 13 seed to win on the tournament’s opening weekend. They’re an incredible story, having not played in the tournament since 1987, when they moved to 0-5 in the event all-time.

The Herd will play either West Virginia or Murray State in the tournament’s round of 32 on Sunday. Whoever plays them will probably be glad not to be seeing Wichita instead. But they shouldn’t be, because the Herd are an unpredictable March Madness threat.

Marshall probably isn’t as talented as Wichita State, but the Herd could make up for that disparity with sheer weirdness. The most unusual thing about the Herd is how quickly they play. They entered the tournament ranked No. 6 in Division I in opponent-adjusted possessions per 40 minutes, which is another way of saying “Marshall goes fast.” The average Marshall possession this season lasted 14 seconds, less than half the shot clock.

When a team plays at Marshall’s rapid pace, it opens up a couple of distinct possibilities. One is that the pacy team will play out of control, commit lots of turnovers, miss lots of shots, and afford the opponent a bunch of extra possessions with which to build a lead. Another is that the other team will wear down, and the speedsters will have a chance to win an extended track meet. Sometimes, there’s overlap between those outcomes.

Marshall’s fast pace doesn’t usually come with rampant turnover-forcing on defense. But Wichita State looked disheveled for much of the afternoon. The usually sure-handed Shockers coughed up 15 turnovers and gave up 27 points off of them. The Herd were much more comfortable and only surrendered nine points on seven giveaways.

Marshall’s average adjusted pace is a whopping 75 possessions per game. Wichita State’s average pace is a more ginger 69. This one settled at 72.5 trips per team, right in the middle. It was Marshall that controlled the flow of the game down the stretch.

It’s worth noting that even when Marshall did have to play in the half court and execute precise plays, the Herd held their own. This was a key closing bucket off an inbound:

It was a sensible upset pick before the tournament began. Wichita State’s good, but the Shockers aren’t quite as good as they’ve been for the last few years. And they were playing an opponent that closely resembled literal hell on wheels, which ran them over.

The Herd were always going to be volatile. But they’d demonstrated already that they could play with good teams, when they lost by just four to eventual No. 1 tournament seed Xavier back in December. The score that night was 81-77. The Herd are comfortable in high-scoring games, and they’re plenty comfortable breaking things. Who wants to play against that?